Game Recap: TBL 2, NYI 3 (SO), December 13, 2025

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Game Recap

TBL2

Final/SOSat, Dec 13, 2025Every game that night

NYI3

NYI beat TBL 3-2 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 1.96 expected goals to 4.15. TBL outshot NYI 34 to 17. N. Kucherov led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). J. Guentzel had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. I. Sorokin stopped 32 of 34.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
TBL	0	1	1	0	2
NYI	2	0	0	1	3

1st 3:05NYIM. SchaeferPP0.10 xG
1st 10:16NYIC. Ritchie0.16 xG
2nd 10:13TBLD. RaddyshPP0.17 xG
3rd 3:20TBLJ. Moser0.09 xG

Team Stats

TBLNYI

34Shots on goal17

4.15Expected goals1.96

71Shot attempts39

235v5 shots on goal15

1/4Power play1/4

27Hits19

10Blocked shots20

8Penalty minutes8

8Giveaways13

6Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TBL 4.15 xGNYI 1.96 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TBL33 on goal, 2 scored

NYI15 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Kucherov	RW	0	2	2	4	2	1	+1	0	25:37	6:22
J. Guentzel	C	0	1	1	6	1	0	+1	0	20:18	5:44
B. Point	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	2	17:23	5:18
B. Hagel	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	19:15	1:21
A. Cirelli	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	19:11	0:00
Y. Gourde	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	16:17	0:52
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	14:19	0:00
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:56	0:00
N. Paul	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	13:48	0:43
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:14	5:02
D. James	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	0	9:37	0:05
S. Sabourin	RW	0	0	0	0	5	0	-1	0	6:56	0:00
D. Raddysh	D	1	0	1	3	2	2	0	0	28:22	5:30
J. Moser	D	1	0	1	3	0	4	+1	0	26:02	0:01
C. D'Astous	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	4	22:58	1:07
D. Carlile	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	14:33	0:00
M. Crozier	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:51	0:00
E. Lilleberg	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	13:30	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Johansson	17	15	2	.882	64:54	OT loss
B. Halverson	0	0	0	–	0:06

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Duclair	LW	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	13:25	3:50
M. Barzal	C	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	24:58	4:12
C. Ritchie	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	9:27	1:06
J. Drouin	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	21:09	4:11
E. Heineman	LW	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	0	20:48	0:53
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	17:52	1:05
J. Pageau	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	15:36	0:00
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	14:16	0:00
K. MacLean	C	0	0	0	2	3	2	0	0	13:25	0:00
A. Lee	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	12:49	1:29
M. Shabanov	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	12:07	3:04
M. Gatcomb	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	9:22	0:00
M. Schaefer	D	1	0	1	2	1	2	+1	0	26:16	3:55
R. Pulock	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	+1	0	24:02	0:07
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	-1	0	24:01	0:04
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	21:33	0:00
T. DeAngelo	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	-1	0	14:33	1:35
T. Mitchell	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	9:35	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	34	32	2	.941	65:00	Win
D. Rittich	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TBL

Line 1A. Cirelli14:16B. Hagel14:28N. Kucherov15:46

Line 2Z. Girgensons12:47P. Holmberg13:56Y. Gourde13:12

Line 3J. Guentzel11:27B. Point9:52O. Bjorkstrand6:12

Line 4N. Paul11:39D. James8:54S. Sabourin6:56

Pair 1D. Raddysh17:48J. Moser18:14

Pair 2C. D'Astous20:05E. Lilleberg10:40

Pair 3D. Carlile13:28M. Crozier13:20

NYI

Line 1J. Drouin15:22M. Barzal17:19E. Heineman15:35

Line 2C. Cizikas11:07K. MacLean12:13M. Gatcomb9:22

Line 3J. Pageau10:11S. Holmstrom11:06A. Lee11:12

Line 4A. Duclair9:35M. Shabanov9:03C. Ritchie7:55

Pair 1M. Schaefer17:25R. Pulock16:20

Pair 2S. Mayfield19:42T. Mitchell9:35

Pair 3A. Pelech17:34T. DeAngelo12:24

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamAnthony Duclair NYI Faces TBL, his team until Apr 20242 A, 0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TBL 3.1, NYI 2.8	TBL 2, NYI 3
Total goals	5.8	5
Shots on goal	TBL 27.1, NYI 28.9	TBL 34, NYI 17
Win chance	TBL 54%	NYI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TBL N. Kucherov	3.1	4	1.41	2	34%	0
NYI M. Schaefer	2.9	2	0.61	1	16%	1
TBL J. Guentzel	2.6	6	0.94	1	36%	0
NYI M. Barzal	2.6	1	0.83	1	24%	0
TBL B. Hagel	2.5	1	0.82	0	29%	0
NYI A. Lee	2.4	3	0.50	0	23%	0
TBL B. Point	2.2	3	0.84	1	34%	0
TBL D. Raddysh	2.1	3	0.66	1	11%	1
NYI T. DeAngelo	1.8	0	0.39	0	8%	0
NYI M. Shabanov	1.8	0	0.52	0	17%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.8	2	0.55	0	22%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.7	1	0.26	0	4%	0
TBL O. Bjorkstrand	1.7	1	0.54	0	20%	0
NYI E. Heineman	1.7	1	0.43	0	22%	0
TBL N. Paul	1.7	1	0.45	0	20%	0
TBL Y. Gourde	1.5	2	0.45	0	15%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.5	2	0.34	0	6%	0
NYI J. Drouin	1.4	1	0.61	0	16%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.4	0	0.41	2	20%	0
TBL M. Crozier	1.4	1	0.18	0	2%	0
TBL C. D'Astous	1.4	1	0.36	0	8%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.4	1	0.20	0	12%	0
NYI C. Ritchie	1.3	1	0.26	1	13%	1
NYI J. Pageau	1.3	1	0.44	0	16%	0
NYI M. Gatcomb	1.2	0	0.25	0	15%	0
TBL P. Holmberg	1.2	1	0.29	0	12%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.2	1	0.44	0	19%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.1	3	0.28	1	5%	1
TBL D. James	1.1	3	0.28	0	12%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.0	0	0.23	0	9%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	1.0	1	0.15	0	4%	0
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.9	0	0.25	0	3%	0
TBL D. Carlile	0.8	1	0.19	0	6%	0
TBL S. Sabourin	0.8	0	0.28	0	9%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.8	2	0.18	0	9%	0
NYI T. Mitchell	0.6	0	0.14	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 26 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.