Game Recap: TBL 5, NYI 3, October 10, 2026

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Game Recap

TBL5

FinalSat, Oct 10, 2026Every game that night

NYI3

TBL beat NYI 5-3, with the chances close: 2.89 expected goals to 2.37. B. Hagel scored three for TBL. M. Schaefer had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.8. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 20 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TBL	2	1	2	5
NYI	0	3	0	3

1st 5:45TBLJ. Guentzel0.12 xG
1st 15:42TBLB. Hagel0.21 xG
2nd 6:27NYIT. DeAngelo0.06 xG
2nd 7:54TBLJ. GuentzelPP0.20 xG
2nd 11:41NYIJ. Pageau0.21 xG
2nd 19:53NYIB. SchennPP0.60 xG
3rd 18:16TBLB. Hagel0.03 xG
3rd 18:37TBLB. HagelEN0.49 xG

Team Stats

TBLNYI

26Shots on goal23

2.89Expected goals2.37

49Shot attempts47

175v5 shots on goal19

1/4Power play1/2

18Hits30

14Blocked shots16

9Penalty minutes13

14Giveaways18

5Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TBL 2.89 xGNYI 2.37 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TBL25 on goal, 5 scored

NYI23 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Hagel	LW	3	1	4	6	3	4	+2	0	21:32	4:34
J. Guentzel	C	2	0	2	4	1	0	+1	0	19:29	5:36
N. Kucherov	RW	0	2	2	1	0	1	+1	0	17:46	5:23
A. Cirelli	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	+3	0	18:04	2:27
B. Point	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	18:57	5:05
G. Goncalves	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	18:13	1:49
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	17:37	1:14
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:16	0:00
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	0	15:14	0:00
C. Geekie	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	11:27	1:42
S. Sabourin	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	5	9:29	0:20
M. Crozier	D	0	2	2	2	1	1	+2	0	16:30	0:17
R. McDonagh	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	+1	0	15:56	0:00
V. Hedman	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	10:34	0:00
J. Carlson	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	20:43	5:20
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	+1	0	19:01	0:00
J. Moser	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	17:01	0:04
C. D'Astous	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	13:30	1:54

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	23	20	3	.870	60:00	Win
D. Hildeby	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Horvat	C	0	1	1	3	4	0	-1	0	20:09	3:22
B. Schenn	C	1	0	1	2	4	2	-1	0	17:20	3:17
O. Palat	LW	0	1	1	0	3	3	+1	0	15:23	0:00
J. Pageau	C	1	0	1	1	3	1	-1	0	14:35	0:00
M. Maccelli	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	-1	0	14:29	3:07
K. Palmieri	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	15:16	3:15
E. Heineman	LW	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	2	13:41	0:00
C. Ritchie	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	13:37	0:34
V. Eklund	RW	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	2	13:25	0:26
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	13:18	0:24
A. Duclair	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	13:17	0:19
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10:10	0:00
T. DeAngelo	D	1	1	2	2	0	1	0	0	16:33	0:26
M. Schaefer	D	0	1	1	8	1	0	-1	0	27:07	3:15
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-2	2	21:05	0:00
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	5	19:38	0:00
R. Pulock	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	-1	2	19:14	0:00
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	0	14:45	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	25	21	4	.840	59:49	Loss
S. Varlamov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TBL

Line 1Z. Girgensons13:40P. Holmberg16:17I. Mikheyev14:02

Line 2N. Kucherov12:12B. Point13:52G. Goncalves16:24

Line 3A. Cirelli12:53B. Hagel14:33J. Guentzel13:53

Line 4S. Sabourin9:09C. Geekie9:46

Pair 1J. Carlson15:23J. Moser15:49

Pair 2R. McDonagh13:09E. Cernak16:17

Pair 3M. Crozier16:07C. D'Astous11:30

NYI

Line 1B. Schenn13:46C. Ritchie13:03V. Eklund12:59

Line 2K. Palmieri11:50B. Horvat14:16E. Heineman11:51

Line 3A. Duclair12:52J. Pageau11:20O. Palat13:44

Line 4C. Cizikas9:06M. Maccelli11:05S. Holmstrom9:28

Pair 1M. Schaefer23:35L. Stanley16:52

Pair 2A. Pelech16:46R. Pulock15:29

Pair 3S. Mayfield10:27T. DeAngelo15:56

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

7 of 14 overs hit (50%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
TBL B. Hagel	3.5	+135	-175	6	Over
TBL N. Kucherov	3.5	+135	-170	1	Under
NYI B. Horvat	2.5	-110	+100	3	Over
TBL B. Point	2.5	+110	-140	1	Under
TBL J. Guentzel	2.5	-105	-120	4	Over
NYI K. Palmieri	2.5	+135	-180	0	Under
NYI M. Schaefer	2.5	+105	-115	8	Over
TBL A. Cirelli	1.5	+120	-140	0	Under
NYI B. Schenn	1.5	+105	-125	2	Over
NYI E. Heineman	1.5	+100	-130	2	Over
TBL I. Mikheyev	1.5	+110	-130	0	Under
TBL J. Carlson	1.5	-180	+140	1	Under
NYI M. Maccelli	1.5	+105	-155	0	Under
NYI T. DeAngelo	1.5	-110	-135	2	Over

5 of 33 overs hit (15%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
TBL A. Cirelli	0.5	+340	-600	0	Under
NYI A. Duclair	0.5	+525	-800	0	Under
NYI A. Pelech	0.5	+2300	-3500	0	Under
TBL B. Hagel	0.5	+170	-200	3	Over
NYI B. Horvat	0.5	+235	-285	0	Under
TBL B. Point	0.5	+185	-275	0	Under
NYI B. Schenn	0.5	+400	-600	1	Over
NYI C. Cizikas	0.5	+900	-1400	0	Under
TBL C. D'Astous	0.5	+900	-2500	0	Under
TBL C. Geekie	0.5	+600	-1200	0	Under
NYI C. Ritchie	0.5	+360	-650	0	Under
TBL E. Cernak	0.5	+1800	-2800	0	Under
NYI E. Heineman	0.5	+430	-650	0	Under
TBL G. Goncalves	0.5	+425	-650	0	Under
TBL I. Mikheyev	0.5	+525	-750	0	Under
TBL J. Carlson	0.5	+425	-700	0	Under
TBL J. Guentzel	0.5	+195	-210	2	Over
TBL J. Moser	0.5	+1600	-3500	0	Under
NYI J. Pageau	0.5	+750	-1000	1	Over
NYI K. Palmieri	0.5	+290	-450	0	Under
TBL M. Crozier	0.5	+1400	-3500	0	Under
NYI M. Maccelli	0.5	+575	-750	0	Under
NYI M. Schaefer	0.5	+475	-650	0	Under
TBL N. Kucherov	0.5	+155	-190	0	Under
NYI O. Palat	0.5	+1000	-2000	0	Under
TBL P. Holmberg	0.5	+500	-800	0	Under
TBL R. McDonagh	0.5	+2200	-3500	0	Under
NYI R. Pulock	0.5	+2500	-5000	0	Under
NYI S. Holmstrom	0.5	+525	-800	0	Under
NYI S. Mayfield	0.5	+1900	-4000	0	Under
NYI T. DeAngelo	0.5	+1300	-2000	1	Over
TBL V. Hedman	0.5	+1200	-2800	0	Under
TBL Z. Girgensons	0.5	+800	-1200	0	Under

7 of 13 overs hit (54%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
TBL A. Cirelli	0.5	+255	-350	1	Over
TBL B. Hagel	0.5	+150	-165	1	Over
NYI B. Horvat	0.5	+150	-210	1	Over
TBL B. Point	0.5	+120	-145	0	Under
NYI B. Schenn	0.5	+265	-325	0	Under
TBL G. Goncalves	0.5	+275	-360	0	Under
TBL J. Carlson	0.5	+100	-120	0	Under
TBL J. Guentzel	0.5	+130	-155	0	Under
NYI K. Palmieri	0.5	+230	-260	0	Under
NYI M. Maccelli	0.5	+265	-295	1	Over
NYI M. Schaefer	0.5	+150	-160	1	Over
TBL N. Kucherov	0.5	-155	+130	2	Over
NYI T. DeAngelo	0.5	+285	-325	1	Over

9 of 13 overs hit (69%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
TBL N. Kucherov	1.5	+150	-175	2	Over
TBL A. Cirelli	0.5	+140	-175	1	Over
TBL B. Hagel	0.5	-160	+150	4	Over
NYI B. Horvat	0.5	-129	+100	1	Over
TBL B. Point	0.5	-175	+140	0	Under
NYI B. Schenn	0.5	+145	-160	1	Over
TBL G. Goncalves	0.5	+180	-200	0	Under
TBL J. Carlson	0.5	-135	+115	0	Under
TBL J. Guentzel	0.5	-160	+140	2	Over
NYI K. Palmieri	0.5	+110	-130	0	Under
NYI M. Maccelli	0.5	+145	-165	1	Over
NYI M. Schaefer	0.5	+105	-110	1	Over
NYI T. DeAngelo	0.5	+230	-250	2	Over

6 of 14 overs hit (43%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
NYI A. Duclair	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
TBL B. Hagel	0.5	+200	-280	1	Over
NYI B. Horvat	0.5	+250	-425	1	Over
TBL B. Point	0.5	+250	-300	0	Under
NYI B. Schenn	0.5	+360	-700	1	Over
NYI C. Ritchie	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
TBL J. Carlson	0.5	+220	-225	0	Under
TBL J. Guentzel	0.5	+180	-250	1	Over
NYI K. Palmieri	0.5	+325	-600	0	Under
NYI M. Maccelli	0.5	+350	-500	1	Over
NYI M. Schaefer	0.5	+360	-375	0	Under
TBL N. Kucherov	0.5	+135	-160	1	Over
NYI S. Holmstrom	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
NYI T. DeAngelo	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
TBL A. Vasilevskiy	23.5	-110	-120	20	Under
NYI I. Sorokin	23.5	-110	-108	21	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayIlya Mikheyev TBL Turns 32 that day0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TBL 3.1, NYI 2.6	TBL 5, NYI 3
Total goals	5.7	8
Shots on goal	TBL 27.1, NYI 26.5	TBL 26, NYI 23
Win chance	TBL 56%	TBL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TBL B. Hagel	3.3	6	1.05	4	35%	3
TBL N. Kucherov	3.2	1	1.48	2	36%	0
NYI B. Horvat	2.9	3	0.71	1	31%	0
TBL J. Guentzel	2.8	4	0.99	2	35%	2
NYI M. Schaefer	2.8	8	0.69	1	19%	0
TBL B. Point	2.2	1	0.86	0	34%	0
NYI K. Palmieri	2.1	0	0.55	0	23%	0
TBL J. Carlson	1.9	1	0.63	0	11%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.7	0	0.60	1	23%	0
NYI E. Heineman	1.7	2	0.32	0	19%	0
NYI T. DeAngelo	1.7	2	0.38	2	8%	1
NYI B. Schenn	1.6	2	0.57	1	21%	1
TBL I. Mikheyev	1.5	0	0.41	0	19%	0
NYI V. Eklund	1.4	0	0.46	0	16%	0
NYI M. Maccelli	1.4	0	0.55	1	17%	0
NYI L. Stanley	1.4	2	0.32	0	6%	0
TBL M. Crozier	1.3	2	0.21	2	3%	0
NYI C. Ritchie	1.3	1	0.45	0	18%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.3	0	0.23	0	4%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.3	0	0.48	0	20%	0
TBL P. Holmberg	1.2	0	0.29	0	12%	0
TBL V. Hedman	1.2	0	0.40	1	6%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	1.2	0	0.42	0	14%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.2	0	0.23	0	11%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.1	1	0.36	0	17%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.1	1	0.40	1	15%	1
TBL C. D'Astous	1.1	2	0.33	0	6%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.1	1	0.27	0	5%	0
TBL E. Cernak	1.0	1	0.21	0	4%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.0	0	0.25	0	5%	0
NYI O. Palat	0.9	0	0.23	1	11%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	0.9	4	0.18	0	9%	0
TBL C. Geekie	0.9	1	0.20	0	10%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	0.8	1	0.32	1	4%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	0.7	1	0.15	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.