Game Recap: TBL 5, NYR 1, April 7, 2025

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Game Recap

TBL5

FinalMon, Apr 7, 2025Every game that night

NYR1

TBL beat NYR 5-1, with the chances close: 2.97 expected goals to 3.18. NYR outshot TBL 39 to 23. B. Point led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). A. Fox had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 38 of 39.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TBL	3	0	2	5
NYR	0	1	0	1

1st 13:09TBLN. KucherovPP0.09 xG
1st 13:45TBLY. Gourde0.18 xG
1st 14:54TBLB. PointPP0.04 xG
2nd 3:16NYRM. ZibanejadPP0.10 xG
3rd 15:40TBLB. PointPP0.18 xG
3rd 17:18TBLB. HagelEN0.66 xG

Team Stats

TBLNYR

23Shots on goal39

2.97Expected goals3.18

47Shot attempts71

175v5 shots on goal25

3/4Power play1/3

3Hits25

12Blocked shots15

6Penalty minutes18

12Giveaways11

1Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TBL 2.97 xGNYR 3.18 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TBL23 on goal, 5 scored

NYR38 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Kucherov	RW	1	2	3	2	0	0	+1	0	20:28	4:18
J. Guentzel	C	0	3	3	2	0	0	0	0	19:24	4:18
B. Point	C	2	1	3	4	0	0	0	0	17:54	4:16
B. Hagel	LW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	17:57	0:41
Y. Gourde	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	16:39	1:07
G. Goncalves	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	12:38	0:00
A. Cirelli	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	19:54	1:35
N. Paul	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	17:06	0:39
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:20	0:00
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	2	13:13	2:53
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	11:58	0:00
V. Hedman	D	0	1	1	1	0	3	+1	0	23:02	3:50
R. McDonagh	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	0	19:58	0:00
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	18:38	0:00
J. Moser	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	2	14:39	0:00
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	13:35	0:00
D. Raddysh	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	12:44	1:08
E. Lilleberg	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	12:25	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	39	38	1	.974	60:00	Win
J. Johansson	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Panarin	LW	0	1	1	5	0	0	-2	0	20:51	3:42
M. Zibanejad	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	-1	0	19:35	3:27
J. Miller	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	2	19:29	3:30
V. Trocheck	C	0	0	0	4	0	1	-2	0	22:26	3:41
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	2	14:07	0:00
C. Kreider	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	2	13:54	0:36
W. Cuylle	LW	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	2	13:13	0:00
G. Perreault	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:06	0:35
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	10	12:37	0:50
J. Brodzinski	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	10:52	0:35
B. Othmann	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	10:35	0:00
M. Rempe	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	10:07	0:00
A. Fox	D	0	0	0	5	0	3	-1	0	23:58	3:39
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	2	6	2	0	0	22:15	0:00
U. Vaakanainen	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	18:31	0:00
Z. Jones	D	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	17:52	0:38
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	-1	0	16:29	0:00
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	-1	0	15:56	0:12

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	22	18	4	.818	58:59	Loss
J. Quick	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamOliver Bjorkstrand NYR Faces TBL, his team until May 20263 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TBL 3.2, NYR 3.1	TBL 5, NYR 1
Total goals	6.3	6
Shots on goal	TBL 28.4, NYR 28.3	TBL 23, NYR 39
Win chance	TBL 52%	TBL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TBL N. Kucherov	3.3	2	1.41	3	32%	1
TBL J. Guentzel	3.1	2	1.00	3	37%	0
NYR A. Panarin	2.9	5	1.02	1	32%	0
TBL B. Point	2.7	4	1.00	3	38%	2
TBL B. Hagel	2.6	1	0.89	1	29%	1
NYR V. Trocheck	2.3	4	0.70	0	25%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.3	4	0.70	1	25%	1
TBL V. Hedman	2.1	1	0.72	1	12%	0
NYR C. Kreider	2.0	2	0.49	0	29%	0
NYR J. Miller	2.0	2	0.91	1	28%	0
TBL N. Paul	2.0	1	0.49	0	22%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	1.8	1	0.51	0	21%	0
NYR J. Brodzinski	1.8	1	0.35	0	15%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	1.8	2	0.41	0	19%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.8	1	0.57	0	21%	0
NYR A. Fox	1.8	5	0.74	0	13%	0
TBL O. Bjorkstrand	1.6	3	0.49	0	18%	0
TBL Y. Gourde	1.4	2	0.47	1	14%	1
NYR B. Othmann	1.2	1	0.16	0	8%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.1	2	0.23	0	7%	0
NYR Z. Jones	1.1	4	0.24	0	5%	0
NYR S. Carrick	1.1	1	0.22	0	11%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.1	0	0.16	0	9%	0
TBL D. Raddysh	1.1	0	0.31	0	4%	0
NYR W. Borgen	1.0	3	0.22	0	5%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	1.0	0	0.33	1	3%	0
NYR U. Vaakanainen	1.0	0	0.23	0	3%	0
NYR C. Soucy	1.0	1	0.19	0	7%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	0.9	2	0.28	1	11%	0
TBL E. Cernak	0.8	0	0.22	0	3%	0
TBL J. Moser	0.8	2	0.23	0	4%	0
NYR M. Rempe	0.7	1	0.14	0	8%	0
TBL L. Glendening	0.7	1	0.11	0	7%	0
TBL N. Perbix	0.6	1	0.18	0	3%	0
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.6	0	0.17	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.