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Game Recap
TBL0
NYR4
NYR beat TBL 4-0, with the chances close: 2.21 expected goals to 2.25. M. Zibanejad led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). C. Atkinson had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. I. Shesterkin stopped 27 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NYR | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
- 2nd 1:02NYRV. TrocheckSH0.11 xG
- 3rd 4:02NYRC. Kreider0.10 xG
- 3rd 12:50NYRM. Zibanejad0.14 xG
- 3rd 16:24NYRM. Zibanejad0.09 xG
Team Stats
TBLNYR
27Shots on goal22
2.25Expected goals2.21
49Shot attempts46
275v5 shots on goal20
0/3Power play0/1
2Hits10
10Blocked shots14
2Penalty minutes6
3Giveaways15
10Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TBL 2.25 xGNYR 2.21 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:27 | 1:39 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 19:24 | 1:23 |
| C. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:22 | 0:12 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:18 | 0:12 |
| C. Atkinson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:41 | 0:08 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:25 | 1:19 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:07 | 2:33 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:37 | 2:33 |
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:43 | 2:34 |
| B. Point | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:50 | 2:34 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:45 | 1:15 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:07 | 1:37 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:17 | 0:01 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:02 | 0:01 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:09 | 0:00 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 16:09 | 2:45 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:08 | 0:12 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 13:56 | 0:07 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Johansson | 22 | 18 | 4 | .818 | 59:33 | Loss |
| A. Vasilevskiy | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Zibanejad | C | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 17:33 | 0:13 |
| C. Kreider | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 2 | 14:33 | 0:13 |
| V. Trocheck | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:02 | 0:00 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 13:56 | 0:00 |
| J. Miller | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:57 | 0:13 |
| A. Panarin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:50 | 0:13 |
| G. Perreault | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:38 | 0:00 |
| S. Carrick | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:58 | 0:00 |
| M. Rempe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:07 | 0:00 |
| J. Brodzinski | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:07 | 0:00 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:20 | 0:00 |
| B. Othmann | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:36 | 0:00 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 22:24 | 0:00 |
| A. Fox | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 2 | 21:28 | 0:13 |
| M. Robertson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:52 | 0:00 |
| W. Borgen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 19:42 | 0:00 |
| U. Vaakanainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:32 | 0:00 |
| Z. Jones | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18:25 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Shesterkin | 27 | 27 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Quick | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TBL 3.4, NYR 3.2 | TBL 0, NYR 4 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | TBL 28.2, NYR 28.5 | TBL 27, NYR 22 |
| Win chance | TBL 53% | NYR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.1 | 3 | 1.43 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.9 | 1 | 0.99 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| NYR A. Panarin | 2.8 | 2 | 1.01 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.5 | 2 | 0.91 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.4 | 1 | 0.97 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 2.3 | 2 | 0.69 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.3 | 3 | 0.74 | 3 | 25% | 2 |
| NYR J. Miller | 2.1 | 0 | 0.92 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.0 | 2 | 0.71 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 2.0 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NYR A. Fox | 1.9 | 2 | 0.73 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.9 | 1 | 0.62 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NYR C. Kreider | 1.9 | 1 | 0.46 | 2 | 27% | 1 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 1.8 | 3 | 0.43 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| NYR J. Brodzinski | 1.8 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 1.7 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.7 | 3 | 0.56 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NYR K. Miller | 1.4 | 1 | 0.34 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| NYR Z. Jones | 1.3 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 1.3 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| TBL C. Geekie | 1.2 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NYR S. Carrick | 1.2 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL C. Atkinson | 1.2 | 4 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYR B. Othmann | 1.1 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYR W. Borgen | 1.1 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.1 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYR U. Vaakanainen | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.0 | 3 | 0.31 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 0.9 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NYR M. Rempe | 0.9 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 0.8 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.8 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 0.8 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.6 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.