Game Recap: TBL 4, NYR 1, November 29, 2025

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Game Recap

TBL4

FinalSat, Nov 29, 2025Every game that night

NYR1

TBL beat NYR 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 5.89 expected goals to 1.71. TBL outshot NYR 35 to 13. D. Raddysh led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). D. Raddysh had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. J. Johansson stopped 12 of 13.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TBL	1	1	2	4
NYR	0	1	0	1

1st 10:53TBLB. Hagel0.06 xG
2nd 8:57TBLB. Hagel0.03 xG
2nd 17:31NYRJ. Miller0.28 xG
3rd 2:02TBLN. Paul0.09 xG
3rd 19:42TBLJ. GuentzelEN0.94 xG

Team Stats

TBLNYR

35Shots on goal13

5.89Expected goals1.71

69Shot attempts52

305v5 shots on goal9

0/2Power play0/2

16Hits24

20Blocked shots15

4Penalty minutes2

19Giveaways13

3Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TBL 5.89 xGNYR 1.71 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TBL35 on goal, 4 scored

NYR13 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Kucherov	RW	0	3	3	3	1	1	+3	0	21:40	4:00
B. Hagel	LW	2	0	2	5	2	2	+3	0	18:59	0:55
Y. Gourde	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	18:21	0:00
J. Guentzel	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	+1	0	17:51	3:15
N. Paul	LW	1	0	1	3	1	2	0	0	14:11	3:19
A. Cirelli	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	+2	0	19:05	0:40
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	4	4	1	0	0	17:51	0:00
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	16:03	0:00
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	0	0	3	1	2	0	0	13:25	3:06
D. James	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:20	0:42
G. Goncalves	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	2	8:15	0:00
C. Douglas	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	5:06	0:00
D. Raddysh	D	0	3	3	5	0	2	+3	0	25:22	3:14
C. D'Astous	D	0	1	1	1	1	4	0	2	20:44	0:49
J. Moser	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	+3	0	23:44	0:00
E. Lilleberg	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	22:17	0:00
D. Carlile	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:05	0:00
S. Santini	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:41	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Johansson	13	12	1	.923	60:00	Win
A. Vasilevskiy	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Zibanejad	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	-2	0	21:18	3:08
J. Miller	C	1	0	1	1	2	0	-2	0	20:18	2:59
A. Panarin	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	23:40	4:00
V. Trocheck	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	22:51	3:08
W. Cuylle	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	22:07	2:52
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	-2	0	18:30	1:01
N. Laba	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:14	0:00
B. Berard	LW	0	0	0	0	1	3	-1	0	11:49	0:00
J. Brodzinski	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:13	0:52
T. Raddysh	RW	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	0	9:39	0:00
A. Edstrom	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	7:01	0:00
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	6:55	0:00
A. Fox	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	16:27	2:00
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	24:23	0:00
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	0	6	2	-2	0	19:50	0:00
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	2	1	4	-2	0	19:12	0:00
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:48	0:00
M. Robertson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	13:10	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	34	31	3	.912	57:35	Loss
D. Garand	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TBL

Line 1Y. Gourde15:22P. Holmberg15:06Z. Girgensons15:08

Line 2N. Kucherov16:27A. Cirelli15:20B. Hagel14:53

Line 3J. Guentzel14:25O. Bjorkstrand10:12D. James8:38

Line 4N. Paul10:26G. Goncalves7:52C. Douglas5:06

Pair 1C. D'Astous19:31E. Lilleberg18:26

Pair 2J. Moser18:56D. Raddysh19:32

Pair 3S. Santini10:41D. Carlile11:54

NYR

Line 1V. Trocheck16:16A. Panarin17:32W. Cuylle15:43

Line 2A. Lafrenière15:19M. Zibanejad14:24J. Miller13:30

Line 3B. Berard11:49N. Laba12:58J. Brodzinski10:21

Line 4S. Carrick6:48A. Edstrom6:54T. Raddysh8:20

Pair 1V. Gavrikov21:49A. Fox14:17

Pair 2C. Soucy17:16W. Borgen17:11

Pair 3B. Schneider14:18M. Robertson13:10

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamOliver Bjorkstrand NYR Faces TBL, his team until May 20263 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TBL 3.0, NYR 2.9	TBL 4, NYR 1
Total goals	5.9	5
Shots on goal	TBL 26.3, NYR 26.8	TBL 35, NYR 13
Win chance	TBL 51%	TBL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TBL N. Kucherov	2.8	3	1.27	3	31%	0
NYR A. Panarin	2.7	2	1.04	0	32%	0
TBL J. Guentzel	2.7	4	0.95	1	35%	1
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.5	1	0.74	1	26%	0
TBL B. Hagel	2.4	5	0.80	2	27%	2
NYR V. Trocheck	2.2	2	0.73	0	26%	0
NYR J. Miller	2.0	1	0.88	1	28%	1
NYR W. Cuylle	2.0	2	0.48	0	20%	0
NYR A. Fox	2.0	1	0.81	1	14%	0
TBL N. Paul	1.9	3	0.50	1	22%	1
TBL D. Raddysh	1.8	5	0.54	3	9%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	1.8	0	0.51	0	21%	0
TBL O. Bjorkstrand	1.8	3	0.54	0	20%	0
NYR B. Berard	1.6	0	0.24	0	13%	0
NYR J. Brodzinski	1.6	0	0.33	0	15%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.6	3	0.57	0	21%	0
TBL Y. Gourde	1.5	0	0.44	1	14%	0
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.5	0	0.34	0	8%	0
TBL D. James	1.2	0	0.30	0	12%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.2	4	0.21	0	12%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.2	0	0.23	0	7%	0
NYR C. Soucy	1.1	2	0.20	0	7%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.1	3	0.27	0	5%	0
NYR W. Borgen	1.0	0	0.21	0	5%	0
NYR N. Laba	1.0	0	0.27	0	14%	0
TBL P. Holmberg	1.0	1	0.27	0	10%	0
NYR T. Raddysh	1.0	1	0.24	0	11%	0
TBL C. D'Astous	0.9	1	0.34	1	7%	0
NYR S. Carrick	0.9	0	0.19	0	8%	0
NYR M. Robertson	0.9	0	0.13	0	5%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	0.9	0	0.31	0	11%	0
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.9	0	0.24	0	3%	0
NYR A. Edstrom	0.8	1	0.18	0	10%	0
TBL S. Santini	0.8	0	0.16	0	3%	0
TBL D. Carlile	0.6	0	0.16	0	6%	0
TBL C. Douglas	0.5	0	0.12	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.