Game Recap: TBL 1, NYR 5, October 1, 2026

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Game Recap

TBL1

FinalThu, Oct 1, 2026Every game that night

NYR5

NYR beat TBL 5-1, with the chances close: 2.75 expected goals to 2.41. P. Dorofeyev led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). I. Shesterkin stopped 23 of 24.

Team Stats

TBLNYR

24Shots on goal25

2.41Expected goals2.75

63Shot attempts48

125v5 shots on goal20

0/7Power play1/2

31Hits22

16Blocked shots23

6Penalty minutes16

22Giveaways16

5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TBL 2.41 xGNYR 2.75 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TBL24 on goal, 1 scored

NYR24 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Kucherov	RW	1	0	1	1	0	1	-1	0	24:07	9:38
B. Point	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	-1	0	22:38	9:29
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	1	1	0	0	1	-1	0	10:56	0:06
J. Guentzel	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	24:02	9:30
B. Hagel	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	23:40	8:43
A. Cirelli	C	0	0	0	3	1	2	0	0	19:56	3:57
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	14:59	3:20
C. Geekie	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	12:32	3:21
G. Goncalves	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	12:09	3:16
J. Harkins	C	0	0	0	1	5	0	-1	0	10:55	0:02
J. Viel	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	-2	2	8:49	0:00
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	7:39	0:00
J. Carlson	D	0	0	0	4	1	2	-2	0	23:41	9:08
C. D'Astous	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	19:07	3:49
V. Hedman	D	0	0	0	2	2	4	0	0	17:45	1:55
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	1	5	0	-1	0	16:00	0:00
R. McDonagh	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	15:46	0:00
J. Moser	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	4	14:54	0:10

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	24	20	4	.833	55:52	Loss
D. Hildeby	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Zibanejad	C	1	1	2	3	2	3	+1	0	18:53	1:41
P. Dorofeyev	RW	1	1	2	5	0	0	0	0	13:44	1:40
N. Laba	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	2	16:14	0:03
E. Tolvanen	RW	1	0	1	1	0	1	+2	0	14:18	1:00
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	12:25	0:52
G. Perreault	RW	1	0	1	1	2	0	+1	0	10:46	0:51
J. Miller	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	4	15:33	1:29
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	0	15:15	1:37
T. Kartye	LW	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	14:47	0:01
J. Veleno	C	0	0	0	1	4	2	0	0	14:45	0:00
W. Cuylle	LW	0	0	0	3	3	0	+1	2	14:12	0:52
J. Chmelar	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	6:18	0:00
A. Fox	D	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	2	19:04	1:39
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	23:20	0:04
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	1	0	5	+1	0	21:38	0:00
S. Durzi	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	20:54	0:56
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	3	2	1	+2	4	18:48	0:00
A. Smits	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	+3	0	14:09	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	24	23	1	.958	60:00	Win
D. Garand	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TBL

Line 1A. Cirelli12:02B. Hagel11:29J. Guentzel11:05

Line 2N. Kucherov10:54B. Point9:51I. Mikheyev10:22

Line 3G. Goncalves8:46C. Geekie9:11J. Harkins10:01

Line 4Z. Girgensons7:02P. Holmberg11:39J. Viel8:49

Pair 1R. McDonagh13:29E. Cernak14:32

Pair 2V. Hedman13:38C. D'Astous13:44

Pair 3J. Carlson11:19J. Moser13:42

NYR

Line 1M. Zibanejad12:31A. Lafrenière11:43G. Perreault9:55

Line 2E. Tolvanen10:28N. Laba11:28W. Cuylle9:41

Line 3O. Bjorkstrand11:33P. Dorofeyev10:31J. Miller10:39

Line 4T. Kartye8:25J. Chmelar6:18J. Veleno7:26

Pair 1M. Pettersson13:17S. Durzi11:37

Pair 2V. Gavrikov14:20A. Fox14:35

Pair 3B. Schneider12:59A. Smits14:09

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

9 of 17 overs hit (53%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
TBL N. Kucherov	3.5	+125	-145	1	Under
TBL B. Hagel	2.5	-145	+120	3	Over
TBL B. Point	2.5	+129	-160	1	Under
TBL J. Guentzel	2.5	-105	-110	3	Over
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.5	+110	-128	3	Over
NYR P. Dorofeyev	2.5	-114	-105	5	Over
TBL A. Cirelli	1.5	+100	-110	3	Over
NYR A. Fox	1.5	-105	-110	0	Under
NYR A. Lafrenière	1.5	-170	+135	3	Over
NYR E. Tolvanen	1.5	+110	-135	1	Under
NYR G. Perreault	1.5	-105	-135	1	Under
TBL I. Mikheyev	1.5	-105	-120	0	Under
TBL J. Carlson	1.5	-176	+135	4	Over
NYR J. Miller	1.5	-150	+120	1	Under
NYR O. Bjorkstrand	1.5	+105	-135	1	Under
TBL V. Hedman	1.5	+110	-125	2	Over
NYR W. Cuylle	1.5	+100	-127	3	Over

5 of 34 overs hit (15%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
TBL A. Cirelli	0.5	+350	-600	0	Under
NYR A. Fox	0.5	+600	-1000	0	Under
NYR A. Lafrenière	0.5	+270	-370	0	Under
TBL B. Hagel	0.5	+185	-225	0	Under
TBL B. Point	0.5	+220	-300	0	Under
NYR B. Schneider	0.5	+1400	-2800	0	Under
TBL C. D'Astous	0.5	+850	-2500	0	Under
TBL C. Geekie	0.5	+600	-1400	0	Under
TBL E. Cernak	0.5	+1500	-3500	0	Under
NYR E. Tolvanen	0.5	+475	-900	1	Over
TBL G. Goncalves	0.5	+550	-1200	0	Under
NYR G. Perreault	0.5	+380	-550	1	Over
TBL I. Mikheyev	0.5	+380	-650	0	Under
TBL J. Carlson	0.5	+550	-800	0	Under
TBL J. Guentzel	0.5	+210	-225	0	Under
TBL J. Harkins	0.5	+650	-1400	0	Under
NYR J. Miller	0.5	+300	-400	0	Under
TBL J. Moser	0.5	+1200	-2500	0	Under
NYR J. Veleno	0.5	+1200	-2000	0	Under
TBL J. Viel	0.5	+1000	-1400	0	Under
NYR M. Pettersson	0.5	+2100	-5000	0	Under
NYR M. Zibanejad	0.5	+220	-285	1	Over
TBL N. Kucherov	0.5	+170	-200	1	Over
NYR N. Laba	0.5	+750	-1200	0	Under
NYR O. Bjorkstrand	0.5	+425	-800	0	Under
NYR P. Dorofeyev	0.5	+210	-275	1	Over
TBL P. Holmberg	0.5	+600	-1400	0	Under
TBL R. McDonagh	0.5	+1300	-4000	0	Under
NYR S. Durzi	0.5	+900	-2500	0	Under
NYR T. Kartye	0.5	+950	-1600	0	Under
NYR V. Gavrikov	0.5	+1300	-2500	0	Under
TBL V. Hedman	0.5	+850	-2000	0	Under
NYR W. Cuylle	0.5	+380	-700	0	Under
TBL Z. Girgensons	0.5	+1100	-1400	0	Under

6 of 16 overs hit (38%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
TBL A. Cirelli	0.5	+280	-320	0	Under
NYR A. Fox	0.5	-105	-130	2	Over
NYR A. Lafrenière	0.5	+190	-235	0	Under
TBL B. Hagel	0.5	+148	-185	0	Under
TBL B. Point	0.5	+160	-220	1	Over
NYR E. Tolvanen	0.5	+320	-450	0	Under
NYR G. Perreault	0.5	+340	-500	0	Under
TBL I. Mikheyev	0.5	+310	-450	1	Over
TBL J. Carlson	0.5	-105	-120	0	Under
TBL J. Guentzel	0.5	+140	-175	0	Under
NYR J. Miller	0.5	+136	-185	0	Under
NYR M. Zibanejad	0.5	+130	-165	1	Over
TBL N. Kucherov	0.5	-140	+105	0	Under
NYR O. Bjorkstrand	0.5	+300	-450	1	Over
NYR P. Dorofeyev	0.5	+255	-360	1	Over
TBL V. Hedman	0.5	+260	-330	0	Under

8 of 16 overs hit (50%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
TBL N. Kucherov	1.5	+160	-200	1	Under
TBL A. Cirelli	0.5	+135	-165	0	Under
NYR A. Fox	0.5	-132	+105	2	Over
NYR A. Lafrenière	0.5	-105	-120	0	Under
TBL B. Hagel	0.5	-155	+125	0	Under
TBL B. Point	0.5	-130	+105	1	Over
NYR E. Tolvanen	0.5	+200	-240	1	Over
NYR G. Perreault	0.5	+170	-225	1	Over
TBL I. Mikheyev	0.5	+150	-170	1	Over
TBL J. Carlson	0.5	-132	+105	0	Under
TBL J. Guentzel	0.5	-150	+125	0	Under
NYR J. Miller	0.5	-130	+100	0	Under
NYR M. Zibanejad	0.5	-145	+120	2	Over
NYR O. Bjorkstrand	0.5	+170	-230	1	Over
NYR P. Dorofeyev	0.5	-105	-125	2	Over
TBL V. Hedman	0.5	+180	-245	0	Under

3 of 13 overs hit (23%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
NYR A. Fox	0.5	+155	-225	1	Over
NYR A. Lafrenière	0.5	+270	-425	0	Under
TBL B. Hagel	0.5	+200	-275	0	Under
TBL B. Point	0.5	+290	-425	0	Under
NYR E. Tolvanen	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
TBL J. Carlson	0.5	+155	-200	0	Under
TBL J. Guentzel	0.5	+175	-225	0	Under
NYR J. Miller	0.5	+200	-280	0	Under
NYR M. Zibanejad	0.5	+175	-250	1	Over
TBL N. Kucherov	0.5	+115	-150	0	Under
NYR O. Bjorkstrand	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
NYR P. Dorofeyev	0.5	+250	-400	1	Over
NYR W. Cuylle	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
NYR I. Shesterkin	25.5	+100	-125	23	Under
TBL A. Vasilevskiy	22.5	-118	-105	20	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
TBL R. McDonagh	1.5	-105	-135	1	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamOliver Bjorkstrand NYR Faces TBL, his team until May 20261 A, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TBL 3.3, NYR 2.8	TBL 1, NYR 5
Total goals	6.1	6
Shots on goal	TBL 27.9, NYR 24.0	TBL 24, NYR 25
Win chance	TBL 57%	NYR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TBL B. Hagel	3.2	3	1.09	0	35%	0
TBL N. Kucherov	3.1	1	1.45	1	34%	1
TBL J. Guentzel	2.7	3	1.01	0	35%	0
NYR P. Dorofeyev	2.7	5	0.63	2	30%	1
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.4	3	0.83	2	27%	1
TBL J. Carlson	2.1	4	0.59	0	10%	0
TBL B. Point	2.0	1	0.77	1	31%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.0	3	0.64	0	24%	0
NYR J. Miller	1.8	1	0.76	0	24%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.8	3	0.66	0	23%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	1.7	3	0.39	0	18%	0
TBL I. Mikheyev	1.6	0	0.46	1	20%	0
NYR E. Tolvanen	1.6	1	0.38	1	17%	1
NYR A. Fox	1.6	0	0.74	2	13%	0
NYR O. Bjorkstrand	1.5	1	0.39	1	16%	0
NYR G. Perreault	1.5	1	0.46	1	18%	1
TBL J. Moser	1.4	0	0.31	0	6%	0
TBL V. Hedman	1.4	2	0.43	0	7%	0
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.3	0	0.34	0	9%	0
TBL J. Viel	1.3	1	0.23	0	10%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	1.2	0	0.45	0	14%	0
NYR S. Durzi	1.2	0	0.34	0	8%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.1	3	0.21	0	5%	0
TBL C. D'Astous	1.1	0	0.31	0	5%	0
NYR T. Kartye	1.1	0	0.33	0	13%	0
TBL P. Holmberg	1.1	3	0.26	0	11%	0
NYR J. Chmelar	1.0	1	0.26	0	13%	0
TBL E. Cernak	1.0	1	0.19	0	3%	0
NYR N. Laba	1.0	0	0.30	1	11%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	0.9	0	0.18	0	9%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	0.9	1	0.31	0	4%	0
NYR M. Pettersson	0.9	1	0.26	0	4%	0
TBL C. Geekie	0.7	0	0.18	0	8%	0
TBL J. Harkins	0.7	1	0.12	0	5%	0
NYR J. Veleno	0.7	1	0.15	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.