TBL beat SEA 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.53 expected goals to 2.67. TBL outshot SEA 31 to 22. B. Hagel led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). E. Tolvanen had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. J. Johansson stopped 21 of 22.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| SEA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 4:24SEAB. MontourPP0.04 xG
- 1st 8:16TBLB. Hagel0.02 xG
- 1st 13:21TBLB. Point0.16 xG
- 3rd 4:03TBLJ. GuentzelPP0.13 xG
- 3rd 16:08TBLB. HagelEN0.57 xG
- 3rd 19:38TBLD. Carlile0.11 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TBL 3.53 xGSEA 2.67 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Hagel | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 20:41 | 4:26 |
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:24 | 4:28 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:51 | 4:28 |
| B. Point | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:36 | 4:26 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:23 | 0:00 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 9:58 | 0:00 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 18:00 | 0:29 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:16 | 0:39 |
| M. Chaffee | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:17 | 0:37 |
| C. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:56 | 0:29 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:39 | 0:08 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:47 | 0:00 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:54 | 0:00 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 20:13 | 4:27 |
| D. Carlile | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 11:10 | 0:00 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 22:30 | 0:38 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 21:35 | 0:00 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:00 | 0:10 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Johansson | 22 | 21 | 1 | .955 | 60:00 | Win |
| A. Vasilevskiy | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Wright | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:42 | 1:38 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:13 | 1:51 |
| J. Schwartz | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:35 | 1:50 |
| M. Beniers | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 18:19 | 2:03 |
| C. Stephenson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 17:27 | 2:00 |
| J. McCann | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:57 | 2:00 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 16:05 | 0:00 |
| A. Burakovsky | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:32 | 1:51 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:44 | 1:59 |
| M. Stephens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:34 | 0:00 |
| R. Winterton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:34 | 0:00 |
| T. Kartye | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 8:36 | 0:00 |
| B. Montour | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:17 | 1:50 |
| V. Dunn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 21:20 | 1:59 |
| A. Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:57 | 0:00 |
| R. Evans | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 19:00 | 0:09 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:42 | 0:00 |
| W. Borgen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 16:38 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Grubauer | 30 | 26 | 4 | .867 | 59:43 | Loss |
| J. Daccord | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TBL 3.3, SEA 3.0 | TBL 5, SEA 1 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | TBL 27.8, SEA 27.9 | TBL 31, SEA 22 |
| Win chance | TBL 54% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL N. Kucherov | 2.9 | 2 | 1.44 | 2 | 33% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.8 | 3 | 0.97 | 2 | 35% | 1 |
| SEA J. McCann | 2.6 | 0 | 0.86 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| SEA B. Montour | 2.4 | 2 | 0.57 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.3 | 4 | 1.04 | 2 | 39% | 1 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.3 | 3 | 0.92 | 2 | 30% | 2 |
| SEA O. Bjorkstrand | 2.1 | 1 | 0.70 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| SEA J. Schwartz | 2.0 | 1 | 0.59 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| SEA V. Dunn | 1.9 | 1 | 0.68 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 1.8 | 2 | 0.61 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.7 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| TBL M. Eyssimont | 1.7 | 1 | 0.24 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| SEA A. Burakovsky | 1.6 | 3 | 0.54 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.6 | 5 | 0.47 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.5 | 2 | 0.55 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| SEA B. Tanev | 1.4 | 3 | 0.41 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.4 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL C. Geekie | 1.3 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.77 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.1 | 3 | 0.31 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| SEA R. Winterton | 1.1 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SEA S. Wright | 1.1 | 1 | 0.52 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| SEA R. Evans | 1.1 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.0 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| SEA T. Kartye | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.0 | 3 | 0.30 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL M. Chaffee | 1.0 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 0.9 | 0 | 0.25 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| SEA W. Borgen | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.8 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 0.8 | 3 | 0.17 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| SEA M. Stephens | 0.7 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.7 | 2 | 0.12 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.7 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.