Game Recap: TBL 6, SEA 2, March 17, 2026

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Game Recap

TBL6

FinalTue, Mar 17, 2026Every game that night

SEA2

TBL beat SEA 6-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.45 expected goals to 1.48. TBL outshot SEA 26 to 18. N. Kucherov scored three for TBL. N. Kucherov had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 16 of 18.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TBL	2	1	3	6
SEA	0	2	0	2

1st 5:45TBLG. Goncalves0.07 xG
1st 18:49TBLN. Kucherov0.15 xG
2nd 0:57TBLN. Kucherov0.19 xG
2nd 1:07SEAB. McMann0.06 xG
2nd 9:46SEAJ. McCann0.19 xG
3rd 4:35TBLA. Cirelli0.40 xG
3rd 16:54TBLB. HagelPP0.14 xG
3rd 17:16TBLN. KucherovEN0.95 xG

Team Stats

TBLSEA

26Shots on goal18

3.45Expected goals1.48

62Shot attempts36

205v5 shots on goal12

1/3Power play0/3

21Hits23

7Blocked shots20

11Penalty minutes11

16Giveaways20

5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TBL 3.45 xGSEA 1.48 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TBL25 on goal, 6 scored

SEA18 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Kucherov	RW	3	2	5	7	1	0	+3	0	19:49	4:55
B. Hagel	LW	1	3	4	2	0	2	+3	0	17:21	1:23
A. Cirelli	C	1	2	3	2	0	0	+2	0	15:48	1:49
G. Goncalves	C	1	1	2	2	5	0	0	0	12:58	1:01
J. Guentzel	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	19:39	4:40
B. Point	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	18:46	3:58
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	15:01	3:48
N. Paul	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:34	0:00
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	13:06	1:08
Y. Gourde	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	5	12:07	0:00
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	12:05	0:00
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10:25	0:00
D. Raddysh	D	0	0	0	5	1	1	+1	2	22:10	4:01
R. McDonagh	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+2	0	21:17	0:00
J. Moser	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	19:11	0:00
C. D'Astous	D	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	2	17:59	0:00
V. Hedman	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	17:14	1:42
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	16:27	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	18	16	2	.889	59:03	Win
J. Johansson	0	0	0	–	0:00

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Eberle	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	-1	0	18:44	3:19
M. Beniers	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	-1	0	18:21	3:27
B. McMann	C	1	0	1	2	2	0	-1	2	16:58	2:43
J. McCann	LW	1	0	1	1	0	1	-1	0	12:53	3:16
C. Stephenson	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	17:54	3:31
F. Gaudreau	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:53	0:04
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	2	15:51	2:25
R. Winterton	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	0	14:26	0:04
B. Catton	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:55	2:37
K. Kakko	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:22	2:20
B. Meyers	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	5	11:52	0:04
J. Melanson	RW	0	0	0	0	9	1	-1	0	9:14	0:00
B. Montour	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	-4	0	23:11	2:31
V. Dunn	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	19:23	3:29
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	2	2	4	0	0	18:43	0:00
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-3	0	18:05	0:07
R. Evans	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	2	17:50	0:03
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	1	5	2	0	0	17:14	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Grubauer	25	20	5	.800	59:23	Loss
J. Daccord	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TBL

Line 1J. Guentzel13:28B. Point13:38G. Goncalves11:19

Line 2N. Kucherov13:48B. Hagel12:02A. Cirelli10:51

Line 3C. Perry11:05O. Bjorkstrand11:13N. Paul13:07

Line 4Z. Girgensons9:52P. Holmberg10:17Y. Gourde9:05

Pair 1R. McDonagh17:21C. D'Astous17:31

Pair 2D. Raddysh17:08J. Moser16:21

Pair 3V. Hedman12:56E. Cernak12:43

SEA

Line 1J. Eberle13:55M. Beniers13:35B. McMann13:28

Line 2K. Kakko10:58S. Wright12:56B. Catton11:08

Line 3C. Stephenson12:21F. Gaudreau12:34J. McCann9:28

Line 4R. Winterton12:04J. Melanson9:14B. Meyers8:21

Pair 1B. Montour19:21R. Lindgren13:59

Pair 2A. Larsson14:37V. Dunn15:45

Pair 3J. Oleksiak14:41R. Evans15:20

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamYanni Gourde TBL Faces SEA, his team until Mar 20250 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TBL 3.5, SEA 3.0	TBL 6, SEA 2
Total goals	6.4	8
Shots on goal	TBL 28.6, SEA 26.6	TBL 26, SEA 18
Win chance	TBL 58%	TBL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TBL N. Kucherov	2.9	7	1.48	5	34%	3
SEA B. Montour	2.6	3	0.50	0	15%	0
TBL B. Hagel	2.5	2	0.86	4	30%	1
TBL D. Raddysh	2.5	5	0.77	0	13%	0
TBL J. Guentzel	2.4	2	0.87	1	32%	0
SEA B. McMann	2.4	2	0.56	1	26%	1
SEA J. McCann	2.2	1	0.69	1	27%	1
TBL B. Point	2.1	0	0.93	1	35%	0
SEA J. Eberle	1.9	1	0.60	1	22%	0
SEA V. Dunn	1.8	1	0.50	0	11%	0
TBL O. Bjorkstrand	1.8	1	0.51	0	20%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.7	0	0.55	1	22%	0
TBL V. Hedman	1.6	0	0.57	0	9%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.6	2	0.57	3	20%	1
TBL C. Perry	1.5	0	0.44	0	20%	0
TBL Y. Gourde	1.4	0	0.43	0	14%	0
SEA R. Winterton	1.4	2	0.28	0	8%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.3	0	0.31	0	6%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.3	1	0.43	0	18%	0
SEA B. Meyers	1.3	0	0.28	0	14%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.2	0	0.42	0	15%	0
TBL N. Paul	1.2	0	0.31	0	15%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	1.2	2	0.44	2	16%	1
SEA A. Larsson	1.2	2	0.27	0	7%	0
SEA B. Catton	1.1	1	0.24	0	12%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.1	1	0.58	0	18%	0
TBL P. Holmberg	1.1	0	0.28	0	12%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.1	2	0.19	0	10%	0
SEA F. Gaudreau	1.1	1	0.34	0	14%	0
TBL C. D'Astous	1.0	2	0.33	0	5%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	0.9	1	0.34	0	4%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	0.9	1	0.20	0	5%	0
SEA J. Melanson	0.9	0	0.18	0	9%	0
TBL E. Cernak	0.8	0	0.18	0	3%	0
SEA R. Lindgren	0.7	1	0.19	0	4%	0
SEA R. Evans	0.7	0	0.23	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.