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Game Recap
TBL1
SJS2
SJS beat TBL 2-1, with the chances close: 2.18 expected goals to 2.33. H. Thrun had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.8. Y. Askarov stopped 24 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| SJS | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 13:52SJST. Toffoli0.12 xG
- 2nd 12:55SJSM. Ferraro0.13 xG
- 2nd 17:44TBLA. Cirelli0.04 xG
Team Stats
TBLSJS
25Shots on goal25
2.33Expected goals2.18
50Shot attempts44
195v5 shots on goal20
0/2Power play0/2
13Hits17
8Blocked shots13
11Penalty minutes11
14Giveaways19
3Takeaways1
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TBL 2.33 xGSJS 2.18 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:39 | 3:43 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:43 | 0:15 |
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:01 | 3:54 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 22:45 | 3:45 |
| B. Point | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:25 | 3:39 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:17 | 0:14 |
| C. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 10:45 | 0:14 |
| M. Chaffee | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9:34 | 0:00 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:00 | 0:00 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:55 | 0:00 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:49 | 0:00 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:34 | 0:03 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:19 | 0:00 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:14 | 0:00 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:13 | 1:25 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:12 | 2:35 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 18:31 | 0:13 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:40 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 25 | 23 | 2 | .920 | 58:24 | Loss |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Granlund | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:47 | 3:54 |
| T. Toffoli | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:24 | 2:56 |
| A. Wennberg | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:22 | 3:46 |
| M. Celebrini | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:11 | 3:40 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:44 | 2:52 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:18 | 1:08 |
| W. Smith | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:11 | 1:04 |
| B. Goodrow | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:01 | 0:00 |
| K. Kostin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:56 | 0:00 |
| C. Graf | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:54 | 0:00 |
| N. Kovalenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:46 | 0:00 |
| N. Sturm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:02 | 0:00 |
| M. Ferraro | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 22:13 | 0:00 |
| J. Rutta | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17:16 | 0:00 |
| M. Vlasic | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:56 | 0:00 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24:31 | 0:00 |
| H. Thrun | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:16 | 0:06 |
| T. Liljegren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 15:12 | 0:34 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y. Askarov | 25 | 24 | 1 | .960 | 60:00 | Win |
| A. Georgiev | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TBL 4.1, SJS 2.9 | TBL 1, SJS 2 |
| Total goals | 7.0 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | TBL 31.3, SJS 28.4 | TBL 25, SJS 25 |
| Win chance | TBL 66% | SJS won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS M. Celebrini | 3.1 | 3 | 0.87 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 2.9 | 3 | 1.59 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.8 | 1 | 1.10 | 0 | 39% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.6 | 1 | 1.28 | 0 | 44% | 0 |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 2.5 | 2 | 0.65 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.5 | 1 | 1.15 | 1 | 35% | 0 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.3 | 1 | 0.96 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SJS M. Granlund | 2.2 | 2 | 0.84 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| SJS F. Zetterlund | 2.1 | 2 | 0.58 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.7 | 3 | 0.75 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.7 | 3 | 0.58 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| TBL M. Eyssimont | 1.6 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SJS W. Smith | 1.5 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| SJS L. Kunin | 1.4 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.4 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS C. Graf | 1.3 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.2 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL C. Geekie | 1.2 | 3 | 0.34 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 1.2 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS T. Liljegren | 1.1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS A. Wennberg | 1.1 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| TBL M. Chaffee | 1.1 | 3 | 0.37 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| SJS C. Ceci | 1.1 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS M. Vlasic | 1.1 | 1 | 0.21 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.1 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SJS J. Rutta | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS K. Kostin | 1.0 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| SJS M. Ferraro | 1.0 | 2 | 0.19 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 0.9 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SJS N. Kovalenko | 0.9 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.9 | 0 | 0.25 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.9 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| SJS H. Thrun | 0.8 | 4 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SJS N. Sturm | 0.7 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.