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Game Recap
TBL7
SJS3
TBL beat SJS 7-3, with the chances close: 3.73 expected goals to 3.26. N. Kucherov led the way with 5 points (1 G, 4 A). P. Regenda had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 19 of 22.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 3 | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| SJS | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 2:37TBLB. Point0.15 xG
- 1st 4:08TBLD. Raddysh0.05 xG
- 1st 6:46TBLB. Hagel0.24 xG
- 1st 10:50SJSP. RegendaPP0.57 xG
- 2nd 2:49TBLD. RaddyshPP0.10 xG
- 2nd 3:55TBLD. James0.14 xG
- 2nd 9:50SJSP. Regenda0.16 xG
- 2nd 14:08TBLN. KucherovPP0.11 xG
- 2nd 16:53TBLD. RaddyshPP0.05 xG
- 3rd 16:11SJSP. Regenda0.11 xG
Team Stats
TBLSJS
26Shots on goal22
3.73Expected goals3.26
59Shot attempts46
205v5 shots on goal14
3/5Power play1/3
8Hits23
8Blocked shots17
16Penalty minutes30
18Giveaways13
2Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TBL 3.73 xGSJS 3.26 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kucherov | RW | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:37 | 5:43 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:56 | 3:29 |
| B. Point | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:44 | 4:39 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:28 | 4:41 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:58 | 2:54 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:38 | 3:26 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 13:31 | 1:51 |
| D. James | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:35 | 0:00 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:08 | 3:43 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 15:19 | 0:08 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:36 | 0:09 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:27 | 0:07 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:48 | 4:45 |
| C. D'Astous | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:48 | 2:58 |
| M. Crozier | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:49 | 0:00 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 19:29 | 0:02 |
| D. Carlile | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:36 | 0:00 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 6 | 16:57 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 22 | 19 | 3 | .864 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Regenda | LW | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 9:11 | 1:09 |
| J. Skinner | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 9:33 | 1:18 |
| M. Celebrini | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:19 | 4:45 |
| W. Eklund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 4 | 21:54 | 4:18 |
| A. Wennberg | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:38 | 4:27 |
| C. Graf | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:17 | 0:50 |
| I. Chernyshov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 16:05 | 1:08 |
| T. Toffoli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:56 | 4:25 |
| Z. Ostapchuk | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 11:35 | 0:02 |
| B. Goodrow | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -2 | 12 | 11:31 | 0:01 |
| T. Dellandrea | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:28 | 0:00 |
| R. Reaves | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | -2 | 4 | 9:15 | 0:00 |
| T. Liljegren | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:39 | 1:15 |
| V. Iorio | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 23:58 | 0:00 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 23:20 | 4:19 |
| M. Ferraro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:02 | 0:03 |
| S. Dickinson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:03 | 0:00 |
| S. Mukhamadullin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 5:33 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y. Askarov | 10 | 7 | 3 | .700 | 6:46 | |
| A. Nedeljkovic | 16 | 12 | 4 | .750 | 53:14 | Loss |
Lines at 5-on-5
TBL
Line 1Y. Gourde13:57P. Holmberg13:24Z. Girgensons12:34
Line 2N. Paul11:16D. James10:35O. Bjorkstrand9:47
Line 3J. Guentzel10:45B. Hagel9:57A. Cirelli10:02
Line 4N. Kucherov9:54G. Goncalves11:40B. Point10:05
Pair 1E. Cernak15:46C. D'Astous17:12
Pair 2D. Carlile12:45M. Crozier15:26
Pair 3D. Raddysh13:32J. Moser14:48
SJS
Line 1M. Celebrini17:54W. Eklund15:58I. Chernyshov14:57
Line 2A. Wennberg10:57C. Graf11:28T. Toffoli9:31
Line 3B. Goodrow9:36Z. Ostapchuk9:43R. Reaves9:15
Line 4P. Regenda7:28J. Skinner8:15T. Dellandrea7:51
Pair 1V. Iorio18:26S. Dickinson17:58
Pair 2D. Orlov17:50T. Liljegren15:32
Pair 3M. Ferraro15:13S. Mukhamadullin5:33
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TBL 3.7, SJS 2.6 | TBL 7, SJS 3 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 10 |
| Shots on goal | TBL 29.0, SJS 25.1 | TBL 26, SJS 22 |
| Win chance | TBL 66% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS M. Celebrini | 3.2 | 5 | 1.09 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.1 | 2 | 1.61 | 5 | 38% | 1 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.9 | 1 | 1.13 | 2 | 41% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.7 | 2 | 0.96 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.5 | 2 | 1.06 | 2 | 40% | 1 |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 2.5 | 0 | 0.66 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 2.4 | 3 | 0.88 | 3 | 16% | 3 |
| SJS W. Eklund | 2.2 | 2 | 0.67 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 2.0 | 0 | 0.68 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| SJS I. Chernyshov | 1.9 | 1 | 0.60 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| TBL O. Bjorkstrand | 1.7 | 3 | 0.61 | 2 | 22% | 0 |
| SJS J. Skinner | 1.7 | 3 | 0.43 | 2 | 21% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.6 | 1 | 0.44 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.5 | 3 | 0.49 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| SJS P. Regenda | 1.5 | 6 | 0.23 | 3 | 13% | 3 |
| SJS C. Graf | 1.4 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.4 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL M. Crozier | 1.4 | 1 | 0.29 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 1.4 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SJS D. Orlov | 1.3 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL C. D'Astous | 1.3 | 1 | 0.41 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL P. Holmberg | 1.3 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SJS A. Wennberg | 1.2 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| SJS M. Ferraro | 1.2 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS T. Liljegren | 1.1 | 0 | 0.24 | 2 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 1.1 | 1 | 0.43 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| SJS T. Dellandrea | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL D. James | 1.0 | 1 | 0.31 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 1.0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS S. Mukhamadullin | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS S. Dickinson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL D. Carlile | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SJS V. Iorio | 0.7 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| SJS R. Reaves | 0.6 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS Z. Ostapchuk | 0.6 | 2 | 0.09 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.