Game Recap: TBL 6, VAN 2, March 19, 2026

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Game Recap

TBL6

FinalThu, Mar 19, 2026Every game that night

VAN2

TBL beat VAN 6-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.07 expected goals to 1.81. TBL outshot VAN 31 to 21. N. Kucherov led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). D. Raddysh had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 19 of 21.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TBL	1	3	2	6
VAN	0	1	1	2

1st 17:37TBLJ. Guentzel0.09 xG
2nd 0:49TBLD. Raddysh0.09 xG
2nd 4:16TBLY. Gourde0.09 xG
2nd 5:31TBLN. Kucherov0.01 xG
2nd 12:06VANL. Ohgren0.05 xG
3rd 7:04VANL. Karlsson0.05 xG
3rd 7:36TBLA. Cirelli0.11 xG
3rd 10:35TBLB. Hagel0.11 xG

Team Stats

TBLVAN

31Shots on goal21

3.07Expected goals1.81

55Shot attempts49

305v5 shots on goal17

0/1Power play0/2

12Hits25

14Blocked shots6

4Penalty minutes2

14Giveaways12

6Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TBL 3.07 xGVAN 1.81 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TBL30 on goal, 6 scored

VAN20 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Cirelli	C	1	2	3	2	0	1	+3	0	17:57	0:57
N. Kucherov	RW	1	2	3	3	1	1	+4	0	16:10	1:03
B. Hagel	LW	1	1	2	4	0	0	+4	0	20:01	0:55
J. Guentzel	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	2	15:57	1:05
Y. Gourde	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	13:49	0:00
P. Holmberg	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	12:29	0:00
B. Point	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	15:06	1:01
G. Goncalves	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	14:43	0:57
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:48	0:59
N. Paul	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	0	13:17	0:00
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	+1	0	12:33	0:57
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	1	4	2	0	0	11:39	0:00
D. Raddysh	D	1	1	2	7	0	0	+2	0	24:50	1:08
E. Cernak	D	0	2	2	1	0	1	+1	0	20:05	0:06
R. McDonagh	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	+2	0	23:27	0:00
J. Moser	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	+2	2	22:55	0:00
C. D'Astous	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	0	22:30	0:52
V. Hedman	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	4:44	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	21	19	2	.905	60:00	Win
J. Johansson	0	0	0	–	0:00

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Rossi	C	0	2	2	1	3	0	0	0	17:03	3:21
B. Boeser	RW	0	1	1	1	1	1	-1	0	19:24	3:22
L. Karlsson	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	-2	0	15:55	0:38
L. Ohgren	LW	1	0	1	1	2	1	-1	0	14:15	0:00
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	0	0	5	0	0	-2	0	16:55	3:22
E. Pettersson	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:10	3:20
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	15:51	0:39
T. Blueger	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-3	2	15:40	0:00
N. Hoglander	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:25	0:00
A. Räty	C	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	13:16	0:00
M. Sasson	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	11:23	0:00
E. Kane	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:16	0:40
F. Hronek	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	23:55	1:29
Z. Buium	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	21:15	2:31
E. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	2	3	0	-2	0	18:58	0:00
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	17:58	0:00
T. Willander	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	17:40	0:38
V. Mancini	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	16:41	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Lankinen	31	25	6	.806	60:00	Loss
N. Tolopilo	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TBL

Line 1N. Kucherov15:07B. Hagel15:51A. Cirelli14:03

Line 2J. Guentzel14:52B. Point14:05G. Goncalves13:46

Line 3C. Perry12:49N. Paul13:11O. Bjorkstrand11:36

Line 4P. Holmberg12:29Y. Gourde12:46Z. Girgensons11:00

Pair 1D. Raddysh23:02J. Moser22:55

Pair 2R. McDonagh20:07C. D'Astous21:38

Pair 3E. Cernak16:38V. Hedman4:05

VAN

Line 1B. Boeser15:11M. Rossi13:42L. Ohgren13:08

Line 2T. Blueger15:40L. Karlsson15:17N. Hoglander14:25

Line 3D. O'Connor15:01E. Pettersson12:50J. DeBrusk13:33

Line 4E. Kane10:36A. Räty12:23M. Sasson10:25

Pair 1M. Pettersson17:05T. Willander16:10

Pair 2F. Hronek22:26E. Pettersson17:50

Pair 3V. Mancini15:34Z. Buium18:44

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownGage Goncalves TBL Plays near home (born in Mission)2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TBL 3.6, VAN 2.8	TBL 6, VAN 2
Total goals	6.4	8
Shots on goal	TBL 28.2, VAN 26.0	TBL 31, VAN 21
Win chance	TBL 62%	TBL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TBL N. Kucherov	2.9	3	1.68	3	36%	1
TBL B. Hagel	2.5	4	0.96	2	30%	1
TBL J. Guentzel	2.4	3	1.00	1	34%	1
TBL D. Raddysh	2.4	7	0.80	2	16%	1
VAN E. Kane	2.2	1	0.45	0	23%	0
TBL B. Point	2.1	2	1.04	0	36%	0
VAN B. Boeser	2.0	1	0.62	1	27%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.0	5	0.47	0	22%	0
TBL O. Bjorkstrand	1.8	0	0.58	0	20%	0
VAN D. O'Connor	1.8	0	0.41	0	18%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	1.7	1	0.68	0	25%	0
VAN L. Ohgren	1.7	1	0.32	1	14%	1
VAN F. Hronek	1.6	2	0.55	0	10%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.6	2	0.66	3	21%	1
VAN L. Karlsson	1.5	2	0.45	1	17%	1
TBL V. Hedman	1.5	1	0.60	0	11%	0
VAN T. Blueger	1.4	1	0.40	0	13%	0
VAN M. Rossi	1.4	1	0.57	2	21%	0
TBL C. Perry	1.4	0	0.47	0	20%	0
TBL Y. Gourde	1.3	2	0.45	1	14%	1
TBL N. Paul	1.2	0	0.35	0	16%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.2	1	0.32	1	7%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	1.2	2	0.49	0	16%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.1	1	0.21	0	10%	0
VAN M. Sasson	1.1	0	0.28	0	16%	0
VAN N. Hoglander	1.1	0	0.29	0	14%	0
VAN T. Willander	1.1	1	0.35	0	8%	0
TBL P. Holmberg	1.0	1	0.30	1	12%	0
VAN A. Räty	1.0	0	0.26	0	12%	0
TBL C. D'Astous	1.0	0	0.34	1	7%	0
VAN M. Pettersson	1.0	0	0.29	0	4%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	0.9	1	0.37	1	6%	0
VAN Z. Buium	0.9	1	0.27	0	6%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	0.8	2	0.16	0	4%	0
TBL E. Cernak	0.8	1	0.19	2	3%	0
VAN V. Mancini	0.6	2	0.13	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.