Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
TBL4
WPG7
WPG beat TBL 7-4, and the chances backed it up: 4.15 expected goals to 2.46. N. Kucherov led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). C. Hellebuyck stopped 26 of 30.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| WPG | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 |
- 1st 6:49TBLB. Hagel0.26 xG
- 1st 8:02TBLB. PointPP0.13 xG
- 1st 12:23WPGV. Namestnikov0.17 xG
- 2nd 5:49WPGL. Stanley0.09 xG
- 2nd 7:36WPGM. Scheifele0.13 xG
- 2nd 8:39TBLM. Chaffee0.08 xG
- 3rd 4:03WPGA. IafalloPP0.19 xG
- 3rd 6:51TBLN. Kucherov0.11 xG
- 3rd 7:38WPGD. Samberg0.03 xG
- 3rd 17:15WPGN. EhlersEN0.79 xG
- 3rd 19:23WPGC. PerfettiEN0.42 xG
Team Stats
TBLWPG
30Shots on goal34
2.46Expected goals4.15
55Shot attempts51
235v5 shots on goal27
1/2Power play1/3
16Hits31
5Blocked shots13
31Penalty minutes17
8Giveaways7
6Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TBL 2.46 xGWPG 4.15 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kucherov | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:33 | 3:13 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 23:38 | 3:10 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:45 | 3:09 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 20:57 | 0:00 |
| M. Chaffee | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:17 | 1:56 |
| B. Point | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3:47 | 1:13 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:55 | 0:07 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:29 | 0:04 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 11:22 | 0:00 |
| C. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:54 | 0:00 |
| C. Atkinson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 9:20 | 0:00 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 17 | 7:58 | 0:00 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 25:07 | 3:13 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:48 | 0:00 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 18:57 | 0:00 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:41 | 0:00 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:28 | 0:00 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 14:18 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Johansson | 32 | 27 | 5 | .844 | 58:06 | Loss |
| A. Vasilevskiy | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Scheifele | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:52 | 3:29 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:06 | 3:41 |
| V. Namestnikov | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:08 | 2:01 |
| C. Perfetti | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:27 | 2:09 |
| G. Vilardi | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:54 | 3:32 |
| K. Connor | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:43 | 3:36 |
| N. Niederreiter | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:59 | 2:09 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:29 | 1:55 |
| M. Appleton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:44 | 0:00 |
| A. Lowry | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:40 | 0:00 |
| M. Barron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:33 | 0:00 |
| R. Kupari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:31 | 0:00 |
| J. Morrissey | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:38 | 3:35 |
| D. Samberg | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 10 | 23:07 | 0:08 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:43 | 0:04 |
| L. Stanley | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 5 | 11:42 | 0:00 |
| N. Pionk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 22:33 | 2:01 |
| C. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 12:58 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Hellebuyck | 30 | 26 | 4 | .867 | 60:00 | Win |
| E. Comrie | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TBL 3.1, WPG 3.5 | TBL 4, WPG 7 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 11 |
| Shots on goal | TBL 28.4, WPG 30.9 | TBL 30, WPG 34 |
| Win chance | WPG 56% | WPG won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG K. Connor | 3.2 | 1 | 1.00 | 1 | 36% | 0 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.1 | 4 | 1.30 | 2 | 32% | 1 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 3.1 | 2 | 0.88 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| WPG N. Ehlers | 2.9 | 3 | 0.88 | 2 | 29% | 1 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.6 | 2 | 0.94 | 1 | 37% | 1 |
| WPG J. Morrissey | 2.3 | 2 | 0.86 | 2 | 15% | 0 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.3 | 2 | 0.70 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.3 | 3 | 0.80 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 2.2 | 3 | 0.79 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 2.2 | 3 | 0.99 | 2 | 33% | 1 |
| WPG N. Niederreiter | 2.0 | 3 | 0.50 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 2.0 | 3 | 0.60 | 2 | 20% | 1 |
| WPG N. Pionk | 1.7 | 3 | 0.48 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL M. Eyssimont | 1.6 | 3 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.6 | 0 | 0.41 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.6 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| WPG M. Appleton | 1.5 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WPG A. Lowry | 1.4 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| TBL C. Atkinson | 1.4 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WPG M. Barron | 1.2 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WPG C. Miller | 1.2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL C. Geekie | 1.2 | 3 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WPG V. Namestnikov | 1.2 | 1 | 0.46 | 2 | 15% | 1 |
| WPG D. Samberg | 1.2 | 2 | 0.25 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.1 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.1 | 2 | 0.32 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| WPG L. Stanley | 1.1 | 1 | 0.19 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| TBL J. Moser | 1.1 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.0 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.0 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 1.0 | 2 | 0.33 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG R. Kupari | 1.0 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.9 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL M. Chaffee | 0.8 | 3 | 0.25 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.7 | 1 | 0.10 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.