Game Recap: TBL 3, WPG 4, November 8, 2026

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Game Recap

TBL3

FinalSun, Nov 8, 2026Every game that night

WPG4

WPG beat TBL 4-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.91 expected goals to 1.71. P. Holmberg led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). C. Perfetti had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. S. Skinner stopped 18 of 21.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TBL	0	0	3	3
WPG	0	2	2	4

2nd 1:53WPGC. PerfettiPP0.25 xG
2nd 12:38WPGM. Barron0.13 xG
3rd 8:10WPGB. YagerPP0.19 xG
3rd 10:22TBLB. Hagel0.15 xG
3rd 14:01TBLP. Holmberg0.12 xG
3rd 14:27TBLP. Holmberg0.06 xG
3rd 19:58WPGM. ScheifelePP0.20 xG

Team Stats

TBLWPG

21Shots on goal25

1.71Expected goals3.91

49Shot attempts42

195v5 shots on goal13

0/4Power play3/5

18Hits17

3Blocked shots17

10Penalty minutes8

19Giveaways19

3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TBL 1.71 xGWPG 3.91 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TBL19 on goal, 3 scored

WPG23 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Holmberg	RW	2	0	2	4	0	0	+1	4	13:23	1:14
B. Hagel	LW	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	19:20	5:01
A. Cirelli	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	16:48	3:26
Z. Girgensons	C	0	1	1	1	3	0	+2	0	14:57	0:07
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+2	0	14:46	0:00
N. Kucherov	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	21:36	7:06
J. Guentzel	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	20:47	6:40
Y. Gourde	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	2	15:41	0:45
C. Geekie	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	13:24	1:43
J. Viel	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	11:54	0:00
B. Point	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	5:35	1:24
E. Cernak	D	0	2	2	2	1	0	+1	2	16:59	0:03
J. Moser	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	19:13	0:00
J. Carlson	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	19:07	6:31
C. D'Astous	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	17:29	5:03
R. McDonagh	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+2	0	17:26	0:00
V. Hedman	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	17:18	0:57
M. Crozier	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	2	16:25	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	25	21	4	.840	60:00	Loss
D. Hildeby	0	0	0	–	0:00

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Scheifele	C	1	1	2	2	0	1	-1	0	21:54	5:25
C. Perfetti	C	1	1	2	6	0	2	0	0	15:41	5:25
V. Björck	C	0	2	2	1	0	1	0	0	13:22	1:34
G. Vilardi	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	21:33	5:23
M. Barron	C	1	0	1	3	2	1	0	0	14:28	0:02
A. Iafallo	LW	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	13:46	1:38
B. Yager	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	-1	0	11:00	1:34
K. Connor	LW	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	24:35	5:25
D. Mercer	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	14:21	1:34
A. Lowry	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	13:46	0:02
C. Koepke	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	7:16	0:00
I. Rosen	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	6:44	0:00
N. Pionk	D	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	27:15	5:25
H. Fleury	D	0	1	1	0	1	2	-1	2	16:37	1:34
D. Samberg	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	23:25	0:00
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	1	3	4	-1	2	19:37	0:02
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	4	17:28	0:02
T. Bauer	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	9:20	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	21	18	3	.857	59:52	Win
N. Daws	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TBL

Line 1P. Holmberg12:09I. Mikheyev12:06Z. Girgensons11:27

Line 2N. Kucherov14:22J. Guentzel12:24Y. Gourde13:23

Line 3A. Cirelli11:12B. Hagel12:26J. Viel11:52

Pair 1R. McDonagh13:58E. Cernak14:21

Pair 2J. Carlson12:28C. D'Astous12:16

Pair 3V. Hedman13:15J. Moser15:52

WPG

Line 1M. Scheifele16:29K. Connor16:24G. Vilardi16:10

Line 2D. Mercer11:19C. Perfetti10:16B. Yager9:26

Line 3A. Iafallo9:36V. Björck10:33A. Lowry10:27

Line 4M. Barron9:35I. Rosen6:44C. Koepke6:59

Pair 1D. Samberg18:56N. Pionk17:37

Pair 2D. DeMelo15:36M. Ferraro16:08

Pair 3H. Fleury12:40T. Bauer9:20

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

5 of 14 overs hit (36%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
WPG K. Connor	3.5	+130	-155	4	Over
TBL B. Hagel	2.5	-110	-105	3	Over
TBL B. Point	2.5	+146	-190	2	Under
WPG C. Perfetti	2.5	+128	-140	6	Over
TBL J. Guentzel	2.5	+105	-130	1	Under
WPG M. Scheifele	2.5	+145	-170	2	Under
TBL N. Kucherov	2.5	-130	+110	1	Under
TBL A. Cirelli	1.5	+110	-135	1	Under
TBL C. D'Astous	1.5	+110	-135	0	Under
WPG D. Mercer	1.5	+100	-105	1	Under
WPG G. Vilardi	1.5	-140	+112	3	Over
TBL J. Carlson	1.5	-140	+115	2	Over
WPG N. Pionk	1.5	-140	+135	1	Under
TBL V. Hedman	1.5	+135	-162	0	Under

6 of 35 overs hit (17%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
TBL A. Cirelli	0.5	+320	-550	0	Under
WPG A. Iafallo	0.5	+500	-1000	0	Under
WPG A. Lowry	0.5	+650	-900	0	Under
TBL B. Hagel	0.5	+195	-270	1	Over
TBL B. Point	0.5	+184	-250	0	Under
WPG B. Yager	0.5	+525	-1000	1	Over
TBL C. D'Astous	0.5	+625	-900	0	Under
TBL C. Geekie	0.5	+650	-1000	0	Under
WPG C. Koepke	0.5	+850	-1600	0	Under
WPG C. Perfetti	0.5	+240	-350	1	Over
WPG D. DeMelo	0.5	+1400	-2800	0	Under
WPG D. Mercer	0.5	+425	-700	0	Under
WPG D. Samberg	0.5	+1500	-3500	0	Under
TBL E. Cernak	0.5	+2000	-10000	0	Under
WPG G. Vilardi	0.5	+260	-400	0	Under
WPG H. Fleury	0.5	+1300	-4000	0	Under
TBL I. Mikheyev	0.5	+450	-700	0	Under
WPG I. Rosen	0.5	+800	-2000	0	Under
TBL J. Carlson	0.5	+500	-700	0	Under
TBL J. Guentzel	0.5	+160	-210	0	Under
TBL J. Moser	0.5	+1400	-2000	0	Under
TBL J. Viel	0.5	+1000	-1600	0	Under
WPG K. Connor	0.5	+150	-190	0	Under
WPG M. Barron	0.5	+700	-1200	1	Over
TBL M. Crozier	0.5	+1500	–	0	Under
WPG M. Ferraro	0.5	+1500	-2800	0	Under
WPG M. Scheifele	0.5	+230	-320	1	Over
TBL N. Kucherov	0.5	+165	-200	0	Under
WPG N. Pionk	0.5	+700	-800	0	Under
TBL P. Holmberg	0.5	+600	-800	2	Over
TBL R. McDonagh	0.5	+1500	-2500	0	Under
WPG T. Bauer	0.5	+1500	-4000	0	Under
WPG V. Björck	0.5	+525	-1000	0	Under
TBL V. Hedman	0.5	+900	-1000	0	Under
TBL Z. Girgensons	0.5	+700	-1600	0	Under

5 of 15 overs hit (33%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
TBL A. Cirelli	0.5	+220	-275	1	Over
TBL B. Hagel	0.5	+185	-185	0	Under
TBL B. Point	0.5	+120	-143	0	Under
TBL C. D'Astous	0.5	+140	-175	0	Under
WPG C. Perfetti	0.5	+180	-240	1	Over
WPG D. DeMelo	0.5	+305	-400	0	Under
WPG D. Mercer	0.5	+210	-295	0	Under
WPG G. Vilardi	0.5	+140	-175	1	Over
TBL J. Carlson	0.5	+158	-190	0	Under
TBL J. Guentzel	0.5	+120	-135	0	Under
WPG K. Connor	0.5	+115	-125	0	Under
WPG M. Scheifele	0.5	-110	+100	1	Over
TBL N. Kucherov	0.5	-170	+145	0	Under
WPG N. Pionk	0.5	+134	-170	1	Over
TBL V. Hedman	0.5	+215	-270	0	Under

6 of 15 overs hit (40%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
TBL N. Kucherov	1.5	+140	-170	0	Under
TBL A. Cirelli	0.5	+120	-135	1	Over
TBL B. Hagel	0.5	-132	+115	1	Over
TBL B. Point	0.5	-175	+145	0	Under
TBL C. D'Astous	0.5	+110	-132	0	Under
WPG C. Perfetti	0.5	-120	+100	2	Over
WPG D. DeMelo	0.5	+235	-320	0	Under
WPG D. Mercer	0.5	+160	-190	0	Under
WPG G. Vilardi	0.5	-130	+110	1	Over
TBL J. Carlson	0.5	+108	-120	0	Under
TBL J. Guentzel	0.5	-200	+180	0	Under
WPG K. Connor	0.5	-220	+170	0	Under
WPG M. Scheifele	0.5	-200	+165	2	Over
WPG N. Pionk	0.5	+120	-135	1	Over
TBL V. Hedman	0.5	+170	-213	0	Under

3 of 12 overs hit (25%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
TBL A. Cirelli	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
TBL B. Hagel	0.5	+400	-650	0	Under
TBL B. Point	0.5	+310	-450	0	Under
TBL C. D'Astous	0.5	+300	-450	0	Under
WPG C. Perfetti	0.5	+235	-325	2	Over
WPG G. Vilardi	0.5	+260	-325	1	Over
TBL J. Carlson	0.5	+310	-450	0	Under
TBL J. Guentzel	0.5	+185	-235	0	Under
WPG K. Connor	0.5	+185	-215	0	Under
WPG M. Scheifele	0.5	+195	-250	2	Over
TBL N. Kucherov	0.5	+150	-200	0	Under
WPG N. Pionk	0.5	+275	-400	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
WPG S. Skinner	23.5	-108	-115	18	Under
TBL A. Vasilevskiy	22.5	-120	-102	21	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TBL 3.4, WPG 2.9	TBL 3, WPG 4
Total goals	6.3	7
Shots on goal	TBL 27.7, WPG 25.8	TBL 21, WPG 25
Win chance	TBL 58%	WPG won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.2	4	1.05	0	38%	0
TBL N. Kucherov	3.1	1	1.53	0	35%	0
TBL J. Guentzel	2.7	1	1.09	0	36%	0
TBL B. Hagel	2.7	3	0.97	1	33%	1
WPG C. Perfetti	2.3	6	0.65	2	25%	1
TBL B. Point	2.2	2	0.97	0	34%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.1	2	1.05	2	33%	1
WPG N. Pionk	2.1	1	0.50	1	11%	0
WPG G. Vilardi	1.8	3	0.75	1	29%	0
TBL J. Carlson	1.8	2	0.60	0	13%	0
WPG D. Mercer	1.7	1	0.45	0	20%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.5	1	0.60	1	21%	0
TBL C. D'Astous	1.4	0	0.55	0	11%	0
TBL M. Crozier	1.3	1	0.26	0	5%	0
TBL I. Mikheyev	1.3	0	0.39	1	17%	0
TBL P. Holmberg	1.3	4	0.39	2	15%	2
WPG D. Samberg	1.3	0	0.27	0	5%	0
TBL V. Hedman	1.3	0	0.43	0	8%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.2	0	0.31	1	14%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.2	3	0.27	1	12%	1
TBL Y. Gourde	1.2	1	0.38	0	12%	0
WPG B. Yager	1.1	1	0.24	1	13%	1
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.1	1	0.24	1	11%	0
WPG C. Koepke	1.1	0	0.22	0	11%	0
WPG M. Ferraro	1.1	1	0.21	0	5%	0
WPG I. Rosen	1.0	1	0.22	0	11%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.0	1	0.26	0	6%	0
TBL C. Geekie	1.0	0	0.25	0	11%	0
TBL E. Cernak	1.0	2	0.24	2	5%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.0	0	0.33	0	14%	0
TBL J. Viel	0.9	0	0.20	0	9%	0
WPG V. Björck	0.9	1	0.23	2	11%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	0.9	1	0.25	0	4%	0
WPG H. Fleury	0.8	0	0.13	1	3%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	0.8	1	0.31	0	5%	0
WPG T. Bauer	0.6	0	0.11	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.