Game Recap: TOR 6, BUF 3, December 20, 2024

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Game Recap

TOR6

FinalFri, Dec 20, 2024Every game that night

BUF3

TOR beat BUF 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.61 expected goals to 2.11. W. Nylander led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). M. Murray stopped 24 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TOR	2	3	1	6
BUF	0	2	1	3

1st 1:29TORB. McMann0.03 xG
1st 6:05TORA. MatthewsPP0.12 xG
2nd 1:53TORN. Robertson0.12 xG
2nd 2:22BUFJ. Peterka0.11 xG
2nd 4:27TORM. Domi0.19 xG
2nd 10:47TORM. Pacioretty0.12 xG
2nd 15:56BUFM. Samuelsson0.13 xG
3rd 11:56BUFO. Power0.14 xG
3rd 19:40TORW. NylanderEN0.82 xG

Team Stats

TORBUF

29Shots on goal27

4.61Expected goals2.11

53Shot attempts62

245v5 shots on goal19

1/3Power play0/2

26Hits24

21Blocked shots11

13Penalty minutes15

11Giveaways8

2Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 4.61 xGBUF 2.11 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR29 on goal, 6 scored

BUF27 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Nylander	RW	1	2	3	3	0	0	+2	0	19:22	3:48
M. Marner	RW	0	2	2	1	0	1	+1	0	19:54	3:45
J. Tavares	C	0	2	2	2	5	0	+2	2	17:44	3:43
M. Domi	C	1	1	2	3	0	0	0	0	11:51	1:46
N. Robertson	LW	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	0	11:26	1:06
B. McMann	C	1	1	2	3	1	0	0	0	11:13	0:00
A. Matthews	C	1	0	1	5	1	1	0	0	19:18	3:44
M. Pacioretty	LW	1	0	1	4	1	0	+1	0	15:07	1:45
M. Knies	LW	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	15:09	1:47
D. Kampf	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	0	14:26	0:01
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10:38	0:00
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	10:29	0:00
C. Tanev	D	0	1	1	0	1	2	+1	0	21:02	0:00
C. Timmins	D	0	1	1	0	0	6	+1	0	20:52	0:37
M. Rielly	D	0	1	1	0	1	3	+1	7	18:25	3:16
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	3	1	3	0	2	19:35	0:02
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	+1	0	19:05	2:12
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	16:24	0:03

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Murray	27	24	3	.889	60:00	Win
J. Woll	0	0	0	–	0:00

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Peterka	RW	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	0	16:00	1:57
D. Cozens	C	0	1	1	2	4	1	-2	2	17:30	2:12
J.Kulich	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	14:25	2:03
A. Tuch	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	20:09	1:55
J. Zucker	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	8	17:07	2:09
T. Thompson	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	5	15:55	0:47
J. Quinn	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	15:37	1:56
R. McLeod	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:47	0:00
Z. Benson	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	12:41	1:54
P. Krebs	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-2	0	11:32	0:00
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	11:20	0:00
S. Lafferty	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	8:16	0:00
O. Power	D	1	1	2	3	2	1	+1	0	23:33	0:59
M. Samuelsson	D	1	1	2	2	1	2	0	0	21:25	0:00
C. Clifton	D	0	1	1	0	2	4	-1	0	12:56	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	0	0	0	5	1	0	-1	0	27:33	3:01
B. Byram	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	0	23:43	1:07
D. Gilbert	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	-2	0	8:07	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
U. Luukkonen	13	9	4	.692	24:27	Loss
J. Reimer	15	14	1	.933	33:26

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayChris Tanev TOR Turns 35 that day1 A, 0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 3.3, BUF 3.1	TOR 6, BUF 3
Total goals	6.4	9
Shots on goal	TOR 29.3, BUF 29.9	TOR 29, BUF 27
Win chance	TOR 53%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.9	5	1.16	1	45%	1
TOR W. Nylander	3.3	3	1.09	3	38%	1
BUF T. Thompson	3.1	0	0.90	0	37%	0
TOR J. Tavares	3.1	2	0.88	2	32%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.5	5	0.66	0	15%	0
TOR B. McMann	2.3	3	0.45	2	22%	1
BUF J. Peterka	2.2	2	0.61	2	24%	1
BUF D. Cozens	2.2	2	0.56	1	22%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.2	2	0.76	0	26%	0
TOR M. Marner	2.2	1	1.20	2	30%	0
TOR M. Pacioretty	2.0	4	0.57	1	20%	1
BUF J. Zucker	2.0	1	0.52	0	21%	0
BUF J.Kulich	1.9	2	0.24	1	16%	0
BUF J. Quinn	1.9	1	0.49	0	19%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.7	0	0.59	1	9%	0
TOR M. Knies	1.7	1	0.60	0	24%	0
BUF O. Power	1.6	3	0.48	2	7%	1
TOR M. Domi	1.6	3	0.55	2	15%	1
TOR N. Robertson	1.5	1	0.37	2	17%	1
BUF Z. Benson	1.5	0	0.47	0	17%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.5	2	0.37	0	7%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.4	2	0.52	0	13%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.1	1	0.38	0	16%	0
TOR D. Kampf	1.0	0	0.27	0	10%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.0	2	0.16	2	3%	1
BUF P. Krebs	0.9	1	0.32	0	11%	0
TOR J. McCabe	0.9	3	0.31	0	6%	0
TOR C. Timmins	0.9	0	0.33	1	5%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.9	1	0.20	0	8%	0
BUF C. Clifton	0.9	0	0.21	1	4%	0
TOR P. Holmberg	0.8	1	0.29	0	12%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	0.8	0	0.17	0	9%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.8	0	0.11	0	3%	0
BUF S. Lafferty	0.7	1	0.18	0	9%	0
TOR C. Tanev	0.7	0	0.25	1	4%	0
BUF D. Gilbert	0.5	1	0.15	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.