Game Recap: TOR 3, CBJ 6, October 29, 2025

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Game Recap

TOR3

FinalWed, Oct 29, 2025Every game that night

CBJ6

CBJ beat TOR 6-3 despite fewer good chances: 2.49 expected goals to 3.57. TOR outshot CBJ 36 to 24. M. Olivier led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). E. Merzlikins stopped 33 of 36.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TOR	0	1	2	3
CBJ	2	3	1	6

1st 6:56CBJC. Sillinger0.10 xG
1st 11:16CBJZ. Werenski0.10 xG
2nd 2:43TORS. Blais0.38 xG
2nd 8:33CBJI. Provorov0.22 xG
2nd 13:24CBJC. Sillinger0.18 xG
2nd 16:58CBJD. Fabbro0.10 xG
3rd 7:50CBJM. Olivier0.05 xG
3rd 15:45TORJ. Tavares0.20 xG
3rd 18:10TORN. Robertson0.11 xG

Team Stats

TORCBJ

36Shots on goal24

3.57Expected goals2.49

71Shot attempts59

355v5 shots on goal22

0/2Power play0/2

24Hits7

21Blocked shots19

4Penalty minutes4

22Giveaways19

9Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 3.57 xGCBJ 2.49 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR36 on goal, 3 scored

CBJ24 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Robertson	LW	1	1	2	2	0	0	+1	0	17:22	1:05
S. Blais	LW	1	1	2	3	5	1	0	0	10:55	0:00
M. Knies	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	-3	0	15:19	1:25
J. Tavares	C	1	0	1	4	2	0	-3	0	14:21	1:16
M. Domi	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	13:42	0:59
S. Lorentz	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	0	7:17	0:00
A. Matthews	C	0	0	0	5	2	0	-1	2	19:46	1:22
E. Cowan	RW	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	17:23	1:01
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	16:54	0:00
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	16:31	0:56
D. Joshua	C	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	15:46	0:00
M. Maccelli	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-3	0	12:34	1:20
J. McCabe	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	-2	0	20:20	0:00
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	-1	0	22:25	1:32
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	-2	0	20:15	0:49
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	19:10	0:00
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	1	3	4	-2	0	18:05	0:00
P. Myers	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	+2	2	17:55	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Primeau	24	18	6	.750	60:00	Loss
A. Stolarz	0	0	0	–	0:00

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Coyle	C	0	4	4	0	0	0	+5	0	14:54	0:32
M. Olivier	RW	1	3	4	1	2	0	+4	0	14:03	0:00
C. Sillinger	C	2	1	3	4	0	0	+4	0	16:20	0:00
K. Marchenko	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	14:11	1:26
D. Voronkov	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	2	13:36	1:33
A. Fantilli	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	-2	0	17:17	0:48
B. Jenner	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	15:43	0:43
K. Johnson	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	15:39	1:36
S. Monahan	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	14:58	1:28
E. Chinakhov	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	13:55	0:00
M. Wood	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	13:35	0:00
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	12:41	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	1	1	2	2	0	2	+2	0	21:44	1:55
I. Provorov	D	1	0	1	3	1	0	+2	0	20:19	0:26
D. Fabbro	D	1	0	1	2	0	2	-1	0	19:54	0:00
D. Mateychuk	D	0	0	0	0	0	7	+1	0	22:47	0:39
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	+3	2	19:24	0:39
J. Christiansen	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	-1	0	15:00	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Merzlikins	36	33	3	.917	60:00	Win
J. Greaves	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TOR

Line 1D. Joshua15:15N. Roy15:44E. Cowan16:22

Line 2A. Matthews17:03B. McMann14:48N. Robertson15:35

Line 3J. Tavares12:28M. Knies12:36M. Maccelli11:14

Line 4M. Domi11:51S. Blais10:55S. Lorentz6:35

Pair 1S. Benoit16:50J. McCabe17:56

Pair 2M. Rielly20:00P. Myers17:55

Pair 3O. Ekman-Larsson18:08B. Carlo17:00

CBJ

Line 1K. Johnson13:53A. Fantilli16:19B. Jenner14:03

Line 2M. Wood13:33E. Chinakhov13:55I. Lundestrom11:44

Line 3M. Olivier13:32C. Sillinger15:05C. Coyle12:31

Line 4S. Monahan12:03K. Marchenko12:07D. Voronkov12:03

Pair 1Z. Werenski17:46D. Mateychuk19:49

Pair 2D. Severson18:45I. Provorov18:00

Pair 3D. Fabbro18:07J. Christiansen15:00

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamKirill Marchenko TOR Faces CBJ, his team until Apr 20261 A, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 3.4, CBJ 3.3	TOR 3, CBJ 6
Total goals	6.8	9
Shots on goal	TOR 28.7, CBJ 30.8	TOR 36, CBJ 24
Win chance	TOR 51%	CBJ won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	4.2	5	1.19	0	46%	0
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.4	2	0.87	2	19%	1
TOR J. Tavares	2.8	4	0.88	1	34%	1
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.7	1	0.75	1	29%	0
TOR M. Knies	2.5	1	0.84	1	31%	0
CBJ B. Jenner	2.2	1	0.52	0	24%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	2.2	0	0.75	0	22%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.2	1	0.60	0	25%	0
TOR B. McMann	2.2	4	0.44	0	22%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	2.1	1	0.59	1	24%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.8	0	0.62	0	12%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.7	0	0.65	0	22%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.7	2	0.35	2	18%	1
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.7	4	0.37	3	14%	2
CBJ M. Wood	1.6	0	0.26	0	12%	0
CBJ E. Chinakhov	1.5	3	0.33	0	14%	0
TOR M. Maccelli	1.5	1	0.47	0	15%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.5	3	0.41	1	9%	1
CBJ M. Olivier	1.5	1	0.34	4	15%	1
TOR M. Domi	1.5	1	0.45	1	14%	0
TOR P. Myers	1.4	2	0.16	0	5%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.4	1	0.40	0	8%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.4	0	0.44	4	17%	0
TOR N. Roy	1.3	1	0.40	0	16%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.2	2	0.38	0	10%	0
TOR E. Cowan	1.2	3	0.36	0	11%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.2	0	0.33	0	10%	0
TOR B. Carlo	1.2	1	0.18	0	5%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.1	2	0.26	1	6%	1
TOR S. Lorentz	1.1	3	0.24	1	10%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.0	1	0.33	1	6%	0
TOR D. Joshua	1.0	2	0.31	0	16%	0
TOR S. Blais	0.8	3	0.23	2	8%	1
TOR S. Benoit	0.8	1	0.13	0	3%	0
CBJ I. Lundestrom	0.7	1	0.19	0	8%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.6	2	0.09	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 15 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.