Game Recap: TOR 6, CGY 3, February 4, 2025

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Game Recap

TOR6

FinalTue, Feb 4, 2025Every game that night

CGY3

TOR beat CGY 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 6.17 expected goals to 2.64. W. Nylander scored three for TOR. N. Kadri had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.5. J. Woll stopped 23 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TOR	0	4	2	6
CGY	1	1	1	3

1st 14:16CGYM. CoronatoPP0.14 xG
2nd 2:36TORW. NylanderPP0.08 xG
2nd 3:17TORJ. TavaresPP0.15 xG
2nd 5:58CGYY. SharangovichPP0.12 xG
2nd 12:28TORB. McMann0.12 xG
2nd 18:18TORW. Nylander0.10 xG
3rd 5:44TORM. Knies0.81 xG
3rd 6:02CGYJ. Farabee0.50 xG
3rd 19:16TORW. NylanderEN0.91 xG

Team Stats

TORCGY

30Shots on goal26

6.17Expected goals2.64

62Shot attempts62

195v5 shots on goal16

2/4Power play2/5

20Hits22

23Blocked shots14

10Penalty minutes8

26Giveaways17

4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 6.17 xGCGY 2.64 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR30 on goal, 6 scored

CGY26 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Matthews	C	0	3	3	3	0	4	+1	0	21:47	4:47
W. Nylander	RW	3	0	3	6	0	0	+1	0	17:56	4:45
M. Knies	LW	1	1	2	3	2	0	+1	0	23:00	4:24
J. Tavares	C	1	0	1	4	2	1	0	2	18:03	3:57
B. McMann	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+2	0	13:38	1:46
M. Pacioretty	LW	0	1	1	2	4	0	0	0	12:05	1:15
S. Lorentz	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	2	11:18	0:00
D. Kampf	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	+2	0	15:02	0:00
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	14:49	0:58
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	10:15	0:00
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	9:50	0:30
R. Reaves	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	7:50	0:00
M. Rielly	D	0	1	1	3	0	3	+3	0	22:54	4:33
C. Tanev	D	0	0	0	1	0	5	+1	0	22:38	0:04
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	+1	0	22:12	1:10
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	2	21:14	0:26
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	+1	2	14:20	0:00
C. Timmins	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	11:47	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	26	23	3	.885	60:00	Win
M. Murray	0	0	0	–	0:00

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Kadri	C	0	2	2	6	0	1	-1	0	22:52	5:30
J. Huberdeau	LW	0	2	2	2	0	1	-1	0	21:56	5:30
M. Coronato	RW	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	21:27	5:30
J. Farabee	LW	1	0	1	2	2	1	-2	0	15:32	0:00
Y. Sharangovich	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	-2	0	14:04	3:07
M. Backlund	C	0	0	0	3	0	2	-1	0	20:15	1:24
B. Coleman	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	19:58	1:24
M. Frost	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	16:29	3:47
M. Pospisil	C	0	0	0	0	5	1	-1	0	10:25	0:00
K. Rooney	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	6:59	0:00
A. Klapka	RW	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	5:53	0:00
R. Lomberg	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	5:51	0:00
M. Weegar	D	0	2	2	3	4	0	0	2	26:12	5:10
R. Andersson	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	-3	0	22:32	1:24
J. Hanley	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	20:34	0:00
J. Bean	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	17:17	0:00
T. Barrie	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	14:55	1:44
B. Pachal	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	4	13:46	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Wolf	29	24	5	.828	57:20	Loss
D. Vladar	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamChris Tanev TOR Faces CGY, his team until Feb 20241 SOG
HometownWilliam Nylander TOR Plays in his hometown3 G, 6 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 3.0, CGY 2.9	TOR 6, CGY 3
Total goals	5.8	9
Shots on goal	TOR 28.2, CGY 30.6	TOR 30, CGY 26
Win chance	TOR 51%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	4.0	3	1.12	3	45%	0
TOR W. Nylander	3.6	6	1.06	3	39%	3
CGY N. Kadri	3.5	6	0.86	2	30%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.9	4	0.85	1	31%	1
TOR B. McMann	2.8	3	0.57	1	27%	1
CGY B. Coleman	2.6	0	0.63	0	26%	0
CGY M. Coronato	2.6	1	0.56	1	21%	1
CGY M. Weegar	2.3	3	0.58	2	12%	0
CGY M. Backlund	2.3	3	0.49	0	18%	0
CGY J. Huberdeau	2.1	2	0.83	2	25%	0
CGY J. Farabee	2.0	2	0.47	1	19%	1
CGY Y. Sharangovich	2.0	2	0.58	1	25%	1
TOR M. Pacioretty	2.0	2	0.47	1	18%	0
CGY M. Frost	2.0	1	0.56	0	19%	0
CGY R. Andersson	1.9	2	0.44	0	9%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.7	3	0.55	1	8%	0
TOR M. Knies	1.7	3	0.60	2	24%	1
TOR N. Robertson	1.6	2	0.34	0	17%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.6	0	0.52	0	14%	0
CGY T. Barrie	1.5	0	0.43	0	7%	0
CGY M. Pospisil	1.5	0	0.36	0	11%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.4	0	0.34	0	6%	0
CGY J. Bean	1.3	1	0.26	0	6%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.2	0	0.33	0	6%	0
CGY A. Klapka	1.1	2	0.17	0	10%	0
TOR P. Holmberg	1.0	1	0.29	0	12%	0
CGY B. Pachal	0.9	0	0.15	0	4%	0
TOR C. Timmins	0.9	0	0.24	0	3%	0
CGY R. Lomberg	0.9	0	0.13	0	8%	0
TOR D. Kampf	0.9	1	0.21	0	9%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	0.9	0	0.19	1	9%	0
CGY J. Hanley	0.8	1	0.17	0	3%	0
TOR C. Tanev	0.7	1	0.26	0	3%	0
CGY K. Rooney	0.7	0	0.10	0	6%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.7	0	0.09	0	2%	0
TOR R. Reaves	0.4	1	0.11	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.