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Game Recap
TOR5
DET2
TOR beat DET 5-2, with the chances close: 3.31 expected goals to 2.58. M. Marner scored three for TOR. D. Larkin had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. J. Woll stopped 23 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| DET | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
- 1st 2:29TORD. Kampf0.28 xG
- 1st 8:16TORM. Marner0.26 xG
- 1st 19:28TORM. MarnerPP0.09 xG
- 2nd 16:23TORM. Marner0.10 xG
- 2nd 19:58TORN. Robertson0.18 xG
- 3rd 8:17DETL. RaymondPP0.11 xG
- 3rd 12:08DETS. Edvinsson0.04 xG
Team Stats
TORDET
23Shots on goal25
3.31Expected goals2.58
41Shot attempts64
185v5 shots on goal16
1/3Power play1/3
37Hits34
17Blocked shots9
6Penalty minutes6
14Giveaways15
7Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TOR 3.31 xGDET 2.58 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TOR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Marner | RW | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:25 | 3:08 |
| J. Tavares | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:02 | 3:00 |
| W. Nylander | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19:35 | 3:51 |
| M. Pacioretty | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:37 | 1:42 |
| B. McMann | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 13:34 | 1:40 |
| D. Kampf | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 12:31 | 0:01 |
| M. Domi | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:42 | 1:39 |
| S. Lorentz | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:03 | 0:00 |
| N. Robertson | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:02 | 0:56 |
| M. Knies | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:05 | 3:07 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:35 | 0:00 |
| C. Dewar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:34 | 0:00 |
| P. Myers | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:31 | 0:00 |
| O. Ekman-Larsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:10 | 1:49 |
| M. Rielly | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 21:43 | 2:58 |
| J. McCabe | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:18 | 0:04 |
| C. Tanev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:02 | 0:00 |
| S. Benoit | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 2 | 16:54 | 0:00 |
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 19:42 | 4:35 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -3 | 4 | 18:14 | 4:37 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:35 | 1:03 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:38 | 0:36 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:45 | 4:41 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:30 | 4:31 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:19 | 0:00 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:37 | 1:05 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:02 | 0:00 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:47 | 0:34 |
| C. Fischer | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:10 | 0:24 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:02 | 0:00 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 22:20 | 4:31 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:19 | 0:00 |
| J. Petry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 20:50 | 0:22 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 19:57 | 0:19 |
| J. Holl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:08 | 0:00 |
| E. Gustafsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:18 | 0:47 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TOR 3.5, DET 3.1 | TOR 5, DET 2 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | TOR 29.8, DET 28.0 | TOR 23, DET 25 |
| Win chance | TOR 55% | TOR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR W. Nylander | 3.5 | 0 | 1.15 | 1 | 40% | 0 |
| TOR J. Tavares | 3.2 | 0 | 0.94 | 2 | 34% | 0 |
| DET D. Larkin | 2.5 | 7 | 0.87 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 2.4 | 4 | 0.70 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| TOR B. McMann | 2.4 | 2 | 0.50 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.2 | 2 | 0.70 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| TOR M. Marner | 2.2 | 5 | 1.18 | 3 | 30% | 3 |
| TOR M. Pacioretty | 2.0 | 1 | 0.56 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 1.9 | 1 | 0.84 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| DET V. Tarasenko | 1.9 | 2 | 0.59 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.8 | 2 | 0.54 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| TOR M. Rielly | 1.8 | 1 | 0.65 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TOR M. Knies | 1.7 | 1 | 0.59 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| TOR M. Domi | 1.6 | 2 | 0.53 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| TOR N. Robertson | 1.5 | 1 | 0.38 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| TOR O. Ekman-Larsson | 1.5 | 1 | 0.40 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| TOR P. Myers | 1.4 | 0 | 0.21 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.4 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.3 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.3 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.2 | 2 | 0.51 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| DET J. Berggren | 1.2 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.1 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET E. Gustafsson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TOR D. Kampf | 1.1 | 2 | 0.28 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| DET J. Petry | 1.0 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TOR J. McCabe | 1.0 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.29 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| DET C. Fischer | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TOR C. Dewar | 0.9 | 4 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET J. Veleno | 0.9 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TOR S. Lorentz | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| TOR P. Holmberg | 0.8 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TOR S. Benoit | 0.7 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TOR C. Tanev | 0.6 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DET J. Holl | 0.5 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.