Game Recap: TOR 3, DET 6, October 11, 2025

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Game Recap

TOR3

FinalSat, Oct 11, 2025Every game that night

DET6

DET beat TOR 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.55 expected goals to 2.09. DET outshot TOR 35 to 23. P. Kane led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). N. Roy had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. C. Talbot stopped 20 of 23.

Team Stats

TORDET

23Shots on goal35

2.09Expected goals3.55

46Shot attempts65

175v5 shots on goal30

0/2Power play1/4

22Hits15

16Blocked shots14

10Penalty minutes6

13Giveaways13

2Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 2.09 xGDET 3.55 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR21 on goal, 3 scored

DET33 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Roy	C	1	1	2	4	0	1	-1	0	10:47	0:00
W. Nylander	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	-1	0	21:13	2:40
M. Domi	C	1	0	1	3	0	1	-1	2	14:53	0:00
C. Jarnkrok	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	8:20	0:00
A. Matthews	C	0	0	0	6	0	3	-1	2	21:41	2:40
M. Knies	LW	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	21:19	2:40
J. Tavares	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	19:58	2:40
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	0	5	3	-1	2	16:35	0:00
M. Maccelli	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	15:45	0:00
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	13:01	0:00
D. Joshua	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	-2	0	11:22	0:00
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	1:17	0:00
M. Rielly	D	0	2	2	2	1	1	-1	0	22:15	2:40
C. Tanev	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	17:46	0:00
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	20:35	0:00
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	0	19:38	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	0	5	0	-2	2	19:08	0:00
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-2	0	17:00	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Stolarz	33	29	4	.879	58:24	Loss
C. Primeau	0	0	0	–	0:00

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. DeBrincat	RW	0	3	3	3	0	0	+1	0	17:47	4:15
P. Kane	RW	1	2	3	4	1	0	+1	0	16:25	4:58
L. Raymond	LW	2	0	2	2	1	0	+3	0	20:41	5:06
D. Larkin	C	0	1	1	4	0	1	+2	0	21:56	5:09
A. Copp	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	14:48	0:25
M. Kasper	C	1	0	1	4	0	1	0	0	13:49	0:29
E. Finnie	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	+2	0	13:46	0:00
J. Compher	LW	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	16:45	1:28
M. Appleton	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	13:07	0:12
M. Brandsegg-Nygård	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	11:23	0:28
M. Rasmussen	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	10:17	0:05
J. Berggren	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	2	8:47	0:00
S. Edvinsson	D	1	0	1	2	1	1	+1	2	20:35	0:12
A. Johansson	D	0	1	1	2	1	0	+4	0	13:17	0:00
M. Seider	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	28:03	4:20
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	0	4	1	-2	0	23:58	0:00
A. Sandin-Pellikka	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	2	18:20	1:28
J. Bernard-Docker	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+3	0	10:16	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Talbot	23	20	3	.870	60:00	Win
J. Gibson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TOR

Line 1A. Matthews14:50M. Knies13:38M. Maccelli14:48

Line 2J. Tavares16:00B. McMann15:38W. Nylander16:05

Line 3M. Domi13:07N. Robertson12:04D. Joshua9:58

Line 4C. Jarnkrok5:40N. Roy7:18S. Lorentz1:17

Pair 1M. Rielly17:31B. Carlo18:05

Pair 2C. Tanev13:18J. McCabe13:34

Pair 3O. Ekman-Larsson15:57S. Benoit14:37

DET

Line 1D. Larkin14:36L. Raymond14:21E. Finnie13:40

Line 2A. DeBrincat12:24M. Kasper11:54P. Kane11:27

Line 3A. Copp11:28J. Compher11:52M. Brandsegg-Nygård10:55

Line 4M. Appleton9:47M. Rasmussen8:46J. Berggren8:47

Pair 1B. Chiarot18:23M. Seider17:56

Pair 2S. Edvinsson18:44A. Sandin-Pellikka15:49

Pair 3J. Bernard-Docker10:16A. Johansson12:20

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownDakota Joshua TOR Plays near home (born in Dearborn)2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 3.0, DET 3.1	TOR 3, DET 6
Total goals	6.2	9
Shots on goal	TOR 25.1, DET 29.4	TOR 23, DET 35
Win chance	DET 52%	DET won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.6	6	1.10	0	43%	0
DET A. DeBrincat	3.2	3	0.79	3	31%	0
TOR W. Nylander	2.8	0	1.00	1	36%	0
DET D. Larkin	2.8	4	0.83	1	31%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.7	1	0.84	0	32%	0
DET P. Kane	2.6	4	0.79	3	24%	1
DET M. Kasper	2.2	4	0.53	1	22%	1
TOR M. Knies	2.1	3	0.70	0	27%	0
DET L. Raymond	2.0	2	0.71	2	23%	2
DET M. Seider	2.0	1	0.52	0	8%	0
TOR B. McMann	1.9	0	0.41	0	20%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.6	2	0.57	2	10%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.5	1	0.34	0	17%	0
DET M. Appleton	1.4	1	0.31	0	11%	0
TOR N. Roy	1.3	4	0.43	2	17%	1
TOR M. Maccelli	1.3	0	0.42	0	13%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.3	3	0.47	1	13%	1
DET M. Rasmussen	1.3	0	0.31	0	14%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.3	0	0.20	0	6%	0
DET S. Edvinsson	1.3	2	0.41	1	10%	1
DET J. Compher	1.3	1	0.42	0	16%	0
DET A. Copp	1.3	2	0.41	1	15%	1
DET J. Berggren	1.3	0	0.36	0	16%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.2	0	0.33	0	7%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.1	0	0.36	0	6%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	1.1	0	0.26	0	11%	0
TOR B. Carlo	1.0	0	0.16	0	4%	0
TOR D. Joshua	1.0	2	0.33	0	16%	0
TOR C. Jarnkrok	1.0	1	0.32	1	14%	1
DET A. Johansson	0.9	2	0.16	1	5%	0
DET J. Bernard-Docker	0.8	2	0.18	0	4%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.8	0	0.14	0	3%	0
TOR C. Tanev	0.6	0	0.24	1	4%	0

Shots on goal: 14 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.