Game Recap: TOR 4, EDM 3, February 1, 2025

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Game Recap

TOR4

FinalSat, Feb 1, 2025Every game that night

EDM3

TOR beat EDM 4-3 despite fewer good chances: 2.46 expected goals to 3.82. EDM outshot TOR 48 to 28. E. Bouchard led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). C. McDavid had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 3.3. J. Woll stopped 45 of 48.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TOR	3	0	1	4
EDM	0	1	2	3

1st 6:32TORW. Nylander0.04 xG
1st 9:08TORM. KniesPP0.37 xG
1st 12:50TORB. McMannPP0.38 xG
2nd 11:27EDME. Bouchard0.06 xG
3rd 0:18TORM. Marner0.05 xG
3rd 6:04EDMZ. Hyman0.12 xG
3rd 11:33EDMC. Perry0.03 xG

Team Stats

TOREDM

28Shots on goal48

2.46Expected goals3.82

42Shot attempts91

205v5 shots on goal32

2/2Power play0/2

17Hits17

24Blocked shots7

6Penalty minutes6

11Giveaways12

7Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 2.46 xGEDM 3.82 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR26 on goal, 4 scored

EDM48 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Matthews	C	0	2	2	7	0	2	+1	0	19:56	1:53
M. Marner	RW	1	1	2	3	0	0	+1	0	18:47	2:03
M. Knies	LW	1	1	2	2	4	1	+1	0	16:14	1:49
W. Nylander	RW	1	0	1	5	0	0	+1	0	20:09	1:42
J. Tavares	C	0	1	1	0	2	1	+1	0	19:54	1:48
B. McMann	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	-1	0	11:23	0:29
M. Domi	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	10:34	0:35
M. Pacioretty	LW	0	0	0	2	3	3	+1	0	17:43	0:28
D. Kampf	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	10:53	0:00
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	10:50	0:00
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	2	0	3	-1	0	10:26	0:00
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	9:41	0:00
M. Rielly	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	-1	0	22:11	0:14
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	1	5	3	+1	0	30:22	0:00
C. Tanev	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	26:37	0:00
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	2	16:58	0:00
C. Timmins	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	-1	2	16:43	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	5:09	0:24

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	48	45	3	.938	59:30	Win
M. Murray	0	0	0	–	0:00

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Draisaitl	C	0	1	1	6	2	0	0	0	25:59	3:31
Z. Hyman	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	19:53	3:31
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	2	18:55	3:27
C. Perry	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	2	13:40	0:14
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	13:04	0:14
C. McDavid	C	0	0	0	9	2	0	0	0	25:25	3:35
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:48	0:30
K. Kapanen	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	12:01	0:07
J. Skinner	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	11:56	0:13
C. Brown	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	10:59	0:00
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	10:58	0:00
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	2	7:49	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	1	1	2	8	0	1	+2	0	27:05	3:37
B. Kulak	D	0	2	2	3	1	2	+2	0	21:01	0:00
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	4	5	1	0	0	21:32	0:34
J. Klingberg	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	20:46	0:27
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	12:54	0:00
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	10:57	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	28	24	4	.857	58:01	Loss
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 2.7, EDM 3.3	TOR 4, EDM 3
Total goals	6.0	7
Shots on goal	TOR 26.7, EDM 31.9	TOR 28, EDM 48
Win chance	EDM 59%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.8	7	1.01	2	43%	0
TOR W. Nylander	3.4	5	0.96	1	37%	1
EDM C. McDavid	3.3	9	1.70	0	41%	0
EDM L. Draisaitl	3.2	6	1.45	1	45%	0
EDM Z. Hyman	3.1	3	0.82	1	38%	1
TOR B. McMann	2.9	1	0.55	1	27%	1
TOR J. Tavares	2.7	0	0.74	1	29%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	2.7	8	0.86	2	15%	1
EDM V. Arvidsson	2.3	2	0.57	1	20%	0
EDM D. Nurse	2.3	4	0.44	0	9%	0
TOR M. Marner	2.2	3	1.08	2	28%	1
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	2.0	2	0.79	1	24%	0
EDM J. Skinner	1.8	3	0.46	0	21%	0
TOR M. Pacioretty	1.8	2	0.40	0	16%	0
TOR M. Knies	1.7	2	0.53	2	23%	1
TOR M. Domi	1.7	1	0.50	1	14%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.6	2	0.32	0	16%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.6	2	0.50	1	8%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.5	0	0.37	0	7%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.5	2	0.32	0	13%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.5	3	0.30	2	6%	0
EDM J. Klingberg	1.4	1	0.46	0	8%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.4	0	0.46	0	21%	0
EDM C. Brown	1.4	2	0.35	0	11%	0
EDM C. Perry	1.3	3	0.37	1	17%	1
EDM K. Kapanen	1.1	0	0.29	0	11%	0
TOR P. Holmberg	1.1	0	0.28	0	12%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.0	1	0.28	0	6%	0
TOR D. Kampf	0.8	1	0.19	0	8%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.8	0	0.30	0	10%	0
TOR C. Timmins	0.8	0	0.21	0	3%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	0.8	1	0.16	0	8%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.8	0	0.23	0	2%	0
EDM T. Stecher	0.7	0	0.13	0	3%	0
TOR C. Tanev	0.6	0	0.22	0	3%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.6	0	0.08	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.