Game Recap: TOR 3, NYI 5, April 9, 2026

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Game Recap

TOR3

FinalThu, Apr 9, 2026Every game that night

NYI5

NYI beat TOR 5-3, and the chances backed it up: 6.48 expected goals to 2.39. NYI outshot TOR 44 to 16. C. Ritchie led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Gatcomb had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. I. Sorokin stopped 13 of 16.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TOR	1	1	1	3
NYI	2	2	1	5

1st 2:08NYIB. Schenn0.60 xG
1st 4:55NYIJ. Pageau0.84 xG
1st 5:11TORS. Lorentz0.01 xG
2nd 1:57TORE. CowanPP0.08 xG
2nd 9:39NYIM. Schaefer0.10 xG
2nd 16:44NYIE. HeinemanPP0.15 xG
3rd 10:20NYIC. RitchiePP0.89 xG
3rd 14:04TORM. Rielly0.03 xG

Team Stats

TORNYI

16Shots on goal44

2.39Expected goals6.48

58Shot attempts78

115v5 shots on goal34

1/1Power play2/5

21Hits24

13Blocked shots11

20Penalty minutes2

12Giveaways16

3Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 2.39 xGNYI 6.48 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR16 on goal, 3 scored

NYI44 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Tavares	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	19:39	1:07
E. Cowan	RW	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	18:54	1:02
S. Lorentz	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	2	15:15	0:00
L. Haymes	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	12:47	0:00
M. Maccelli	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	-1	0	11:17	0:00
W. Nylander	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	21:53	1:07
M. Knies	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	18:56	1:02
C. Jarnkrok	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	16:43	0:00
J. Quillan	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	13:24	0:00
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	12:18	0:00
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	11:19	0:00
M. Pezzetta	LW	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	2	6:24	0:05
M. Rielly	D	1	0	1	2	1	3	+1	2	20:45	0:05
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	10	15:52	1:07
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	25:06	0:00
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	20:57	0:00
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	2	3	0	-2	0	17:47	0:00
P. Myers	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	-1	2	15:37	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Akhtyamov	44	39	5	.886	56:23	Loss
J. Woll	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Ritchie	C	1	1	2	4	0	0	0	2	15:31	4:34
M. Barzal	C	0	1	1	4	0	1	0	0	21:36	5:29
B. Horvat	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	19:50	4:49
B. Schenn	C	1	0	1	3	4	0	0	0	18:56	4:35
E. Heineman	LW	1	0	1	3	2	1	+1	0	15:55	2:35
J. Pageau	C	1	0	1	2	4	0	0	0	14:28	1:04
M. Shabanov	RW	0	1	1	1	1	2	0	0	12:51	1:38
O. Palat	LW	0	1	1	0	5	1	+1	0	10:41	0:11
A. Lee	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	17:08	3:05
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	16:24	2:17
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	0	12:19	0:10
M. Gatcomb	C	0	0	0	5	6	0	0	0	10:20	0:00
T. DeAngelo	D	0	2	2	4	0	1	+2	0	20:33	2:54
M. Schaefer	D	1	0	1	3	0	2	+1	0	24:50	4:51
A. Pelech	D	0	1	1	4	0	0	+1	0	18:52	0:22
R. Pulock	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	21:16	0:00
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	14:02	0:25
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	13:35	0:06

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	16	13	3	.813	59:32	Win
D. Rittich	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TOR

Line 1J. Tavares15:08W. Nylander17:28E. Cowan14:45

Line 2S. Lorentz11:07L. Haymes11:44N. Robertson10:52

Line 3M. Domi9:35M. Maccelli10:19M. Knies11:52

Line 4C. Jarnkrok10:20J. Quillan10:36M. Pezzetta6:19

Pair 1J. McCabe18:09S. Benoit15:35

Pair 2M. Rielly16:56T. Stecher14:46

Pair 3O. Ekman-Larsson14:31P. Myers13:43

NYI

Line 1B. Horvat13:06A. Lee12:37S. Holmstrom11:25

Line 2B. Schenn12:10M. Barzal13:54C. Ritchie10:29

Line 3E. Heineman13:20J. Pageau10:23M. Shabanov11:13

Line 4C. Cizikas11:38M. Gatcomb9:49O. Palat10:02

Pair 1A. Pelech15:53T. DeAngelo16:23

Pair 2R. Pulock17:06M. Schaefer18:07

Pair 3S. Mayfield13:01C. Soucy13:09

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMatias Maccelli NYI Faces TOR, his team until Apr 20261 A, 0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 2.8, NYI 3.6	TOR 3, NYI 5
Total goals	6.4	8
Shots on goal	TOR 25.0, NYI 33.3	TOR 16, NYI 44
Win chance	NYI 62%	NYI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYI B. Horvat	3.6	2	0.93	1	36%	0
NYI M. Schaefer	3.1	3	0.91	1	26%	1
NYI A. Lee	2.8	2	0.64	0	26%	0
TOR W. Nylander	2.6	2	0.97	0	35%	0
NYI M. Barzal	2.5	4	1.00	1	24%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.4	1	0.76	1	30%	0
NYI E. Heineman	2.2	3	0.44	1	23%	1
NYI T. DeAngelo	2.0	4	0.51	2	11%	0
NYI B. Schenn	1.8	3	0.68	1	23%	1
TOR M. Knies	1.7	0	0.63	0	23%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.6	4	0.31	1	6%	0
TOR E. Cowan	1.6	1	0.48	1	18%	1
TOR M. Rielly	1.6	2	0.48	1	9%	1
TOR N. Robertson	1.6	0	0.37	0	18%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.5	3	0.62	0	23%	0
NYI C. Ritchie	1.5	4	0.60	2	21%	1
NYI J. Pageau	1.4	2	0.56	1	19%	1
NYI R. Pulock	1.4	0	0.36	0	8%	0
TOR M. Maccelli	1.3	0	0.44	1	14%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.3	3	0.41	0	13%	0
NYI M. Shabanov	1.2	1	0.36	1	12%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.2	3	0.28	0	12%	0
TOR P. Myers	1.2	0	0.12	0	3%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.2	1	0.37	1	7%	0
NYI M. Gatcomb	1.2	5	0.23	0	13%	0
NYI C. Soucy	1.0	0	0.22	0	8%	0
NYI O. Palat	1.0	0	0.27	1	12%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.0	0	0.31	0	5%	0
TOR T. Stecher	1.0	0	0.17	0	4%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	1.0	2	0.20	1	9%	1
TOR C. Jarnkrok	0.9	1	0.25	0	13%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	0.8	1	0.19	0	4%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.8	2	0.10	0	2%	0
TOR J. Quillan	0.7	0	0.12	0	7%	0
TOR M. Pezzetta	0.5	0	0.10	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 13 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.