Game Recap: UTA 4, ANA 5 (OT), October 16, 2024

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Game Recap

UTA4

Final/OTWed, Oct 16, 2024Every game that night

ANA5

ANA beat UTA 5-4 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.40 expected goals to 3.26. P. Mintyukov led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). T. Zegras had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. L. Dostal stopped 26 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
UTA	2	0	2	0	4
ANA	1	2	1	1	5

1st 4:40ANAT. Terry0.07 xG
1st 8:54UTAJ. McBain0.07 xG
1st 13:25UTAB. HaytonPP0.27 xG
2nd 8:06ANAR. Fabbri0.13 xG
2nd 16:52ANAP. Mintyukov0.10 xG
3rd 5:21UTAM. Kesselring0.08 xG
3rd 10:50UTAC. Keller0.12 xG
3rd 14:55ANAP. Mintyukov0.40 xG
OT 0:54ANAL. Carlsson0.23 xG

Team Stats

UTAANA

30Shots on goal34

3.26Expected goals3.40

67Shot attempts67

235v5 shots on goal29

1/2Power play0/5

9Hits19

20Blocked shots19

14Penalty minutes8

19Giveaways21

6Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 3.26 xGANA 3.40 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA30 on goal, 4 scored

ANA34 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Schmaltz	C	0	2	2	5	0	1	-1	2	18:48	2:39
J. McBain	C	1	1	2	1	1	0	+1	2	13:01	0:00
C. Keller	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	-1	0	18:46	2:39
B. Hayton	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	17:08	2:39
D. Guenther	RW	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	0	14:54	2:39
J. Doan	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	4	12:17	1:01
A. Kerfoot	C	0	0	0	3	0	2	-1	0	16:59	0:00
L. Crouse	LW	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	2	15:10	1:01
L. Cooley	C	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	0	13:00	1:01
M. Maccelli	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	12:25	0:58
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	2	12:07	0:00
M. Carcone	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	10:45	0:00
M. Kesselring	D	1	1	2	1	1	2	+3	0	21:58	0:03
M. Sergachev	D	0	1	1	1	0	4	+1	0	27:52	2:39
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	-2	0	24:46	0:00
J. Välimäki	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	22:30	1:01
V. Kolyachonok	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	10:14	0:00
R. Bortuzzo	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	2	10:02	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Ingram	34	29	5	.853	60:54	OT loss
K. Vejmelka	0	0	0	–	0:00

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Carlsson	C	1	1	2	4	0	0	+2	0	19:41	5:02
M. McTavish	C	0	2	2	3	2	0	+1	0	18:49	5:09
T. Terry	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	18:18	5:14
T. Zegras	C	0	1	1	5	0	0	+1	0	18:01	4:05
R. Fabbri	C	1	0	1	2	2	0	+1	0	17:23	1:55
R. Strome	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	-1	0	15:58	3:41
F. Vatrano	RW	0	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	15:49	3:56
B. McGinn	LW	0	1	1	2	3	0	+1	0	12:58	0:00
A. Killorn	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	17:15	3:36
C. Gauthier	LW	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	2	12:49	3:57
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	11:18	0:00
B. Leason	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:04	0:00
P. Mintyukov	D	2	0	2	2	0	3	+2	0	21:55	2:50
B. Dumoulin	D	0	1	1	2	2	3	+1	0	18:45	0:00
O. Zellweger	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	0	19:25	4:55
C. Fowler	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	2	18:39	0:00
R. Gudas	D	0	0	0	0	5	4	+1	4	18:08	0:00
T. Luneau	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	-1	0	13:51	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Dostal	30	26	4	.867	60:50	Win
J. Reimer	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	UTA 3.4, ANA 2.9	UTA 4, ANA 5
Total goals	6.4	9
Shots on goal	UTA 29.5, ANA 28.2	UTA 30, ANA 34
Win chance	UTA 58%	ANA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
UTA C. Keller	2.8	3	1.07	1	34%	1
ANA F. Vatrano	2.7	0	0.62	1	28%	0
UTA D. Guenther	2.5	4	0.79	1	29%	0
UTA B. Hayton	2.0	1	0.54	1	20%	1
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.0	5	0.95	2	28%	0
ANA T. Zegras	1.9	5	0.66	1	22%	0
ANA A. Killorn	1.9	0	0.62	0	24%	0
ANA T. Terry	1.9	2	0.70	1	26%	1
UTA L. Cooley	1.9	3	0.63	0	21%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	1.8	1	0.70	1	10%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.7	1	0.52	0	23%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	1.7	4	0.49	2	19%	1
UTA J. Doan	1.7	1	0.63	1	22%	0
ANA M. McTavish	1.5	3	0.52	2	20%	0
ANA R. Strome	1.5	3	0.49	1	16%	0
ANA R. Fabbri	1.4	2	0.48	1	22%	1
UTA M. Kesselring	1.4	1	0.40	2	8%	1
UTA M. Carcone	1.4	1	0.37	0	20%	0
UTA A. Kerfoot	1.4	3	0.58	0	17%	0
ANA T. Luneau	1.4	1	0.33	0	7%	0
UTA M. Maccelli	1.4	2	0.62	0	15%	0
ANA P. Mintyukov	1.3	2	0.50	2	8%	2
ANA O. Zellweger	1.3	3	0.36	0	7%	0
UTA J. Välimäki	1.2	1	0.37	0	5%	0
ANA B. Leason	1.2	1	0.30	0	14%	0
ANA C. Fowler	1.2	1	0.54	0	9%	0
ANA R. Gudas	1.2	0	0.28	0	6%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.0	2	0.21	0	14%	0
ANA B. Dumoulin	0.9	2	0.26	1	5%	0
ANA B. McGinn	0.9	2	0.21	1	11%	0
ANA I. Lundestrom	0.9	1	0.29	0	14%	0
UTA J. McBain	0.8	1	0.36	2	13%	1
UTA I. Cole	0.8	0	0.21	0	4%	0
UTA V. Kolyachonok	0.7	0	0.20	0	5%	0
UTA R. Bortuzzo	0.6	0	0.10	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.