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Game Recap
UTA3
CAR7
CAR beat UTA 7-3, with the chances close: 4.51 expected goals to 3.89. S. Jarvis led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). N. Bjugstad had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. P. Kochetkov stopped 36 of 39.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| CAR | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
- 1st 10:09CARJ. Chatfield0.18 xG
- 1st 17:35UTAJ. DoanPP0.14 xG
- 2nd 6:25CARS. JarvisPP0.09 xG
- 2nd 8:35CARS. Aho0.13 xG
- 2nd 10:19UTAC. Keller0.18 xG
- 2nd 14:14CARS. AhoSH0.29 xG
- 2nd 19:15CARS. Jarvis0.20 xG
- 3rd 16:11UTAC. KellerPP0.16 xG
- 3rd 17:16CARJ. MartinookEN0.41 xG
- 3rd 18:34CARJ. Roslovic0.31 xG
Team Stats
UTACAR
39Shots on goal38
3.89Expected goals4.51
74Shot attempts63
305v5 shots on goal32
2/5Power play1/2
21Hits16
10Blocked shots14
4Penalty minutes10
17Giveaways20
2Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
UTA 3.89 xGCAR 4.51 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Keller | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:50 | 6:08 |
| D. Guenther | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 17:40 | 5:47 |
| M. Maccelli | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:13 | 2:37 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 13:51 | 2:41 |
| J. Doan | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:59 | 2:32 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:17 | 5:45 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:30 | 0:03 |
| B. Hayton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 17:07 | 5:45 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:39 | 0:00 |
| N. Bjugstad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:32 | 0:00 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:01 | 0:00 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:06 | 2:37 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 23:34 | 5:41 |
| J. Marino | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:55 | 1:10 |
| N. DeSimone | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:31 | 0:00 |
| O. Maatta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:15 | 0:00 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 15:42 | 0:00 |
| M. Kesselring | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:22 | 1:31 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Vejmelka | 37 | 31 | 6 | .838 | 59:22 | Loss |
| C. Ingram | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Jarvis | RW | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +4 | 0 | 19:54 | 2:14 |
| S. Aho | C | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 2 | 17:43 | 2:18 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 17:10 | 2:13 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:56 | 1:58 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:46 | 0:00 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:13 | 0:00 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:07 | 0:21 |
| J. Jaaska | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:12 | 0:00 |
| T. Hall | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:52 | 0:20 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:54 | 0:00 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:33 | 0:16 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:00 | 0:00 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 4 | 18:55 | 2:12 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 20:46 | 0:16 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:31 | 0:20 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:46 | 0:00 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:03 | 0:22 |
| S. Morrow | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:11 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Kochetkov | 39 | 36 | 3 | .923 | 60:00 | Win |
| F. Andersen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UTA 2.5, CAR 3.1 | UTA 3, CAR 7 |
| Total goals | 5.6 | 10 |
| Shots on goal | UTA 24.6, CAR 31.4 | UTA 39, CAR 38 |
| Win chance | CAR 60% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA C. Keller | 2.7 | 5 | 0.97 | 2 | 31% | 2 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.7 | 5 | 1.00 | 3 | 35% | 2 |
| UTA D. Guenther | 2.6 | 6 | 0.76 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.5 | 0 | 0.73 | 2 | 26% | 0 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.5 | 5 | 0.80 | 4 | 31% | 2 |
| CAR B. Burns | 2.3 | 1 | 0.44 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 2.0 | 2 | 0.43 | 2 | 22% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 2.0 | 0 | 0.72 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 1.9 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR T. Hall | 1.7 | 5 | 0.51 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.6 | 3 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.6 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR D. Orlov | 1.5 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.5 | 2 | 0.32 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.5 | 3 | 0.55 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.5 | 2 | 0.42 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.5 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.5 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| UTA N. Bjugstad | 1.5 | 6 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.5 | 3 | 0.41 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.4 | 1 | 0.26 | 2 | 8% | 1 |
| UTA J. Doan | 1.4 | 2 | 0.37 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.4 | 3 | 0.32 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| UTA M. Kesselring | 1.4 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| UTA M. Maccelli | 1.3 | 1 | 0.39 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 1.3 | 2 | 0.37 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.3 | 5 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 1.2 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.0 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 0.9 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| UTA N. DeSimone | 0.9 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA O. Maatta | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA J. Marino | 0.7 | 3 | 0.26 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.7 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CAR J. Jaaska | 0.7 | 0 | 0.19 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.6 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.