Game Recap: UTA 3, CHI 4 (OT), March 7, 2025

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Game Recap

UTA3

Final/OTFri, Mar 7, 2025Every game that night

CHI4

CHI beat UTA 4-3 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.68 expected goals to 4.80. UTA outshot CHI 39 to 25. C. Keller led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). B. Hayton had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. S. Knight stopped 36 of 39.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
UTA	1	0	2	0	3
CHI	0	3	0	1	4

1st 0:56UTAN. Schmaltz0.20 xG
2nd 9:23CHIW. Kaiser0.14 xG
2nd 12:50CHII. Mikheyev0.09 xG
2nd 14:30CHIF. Nazar0.60 xG
3rd 5:04UTAJ. Marino0.02 xG
3rd 12:16UTAC. KellerPP0.10 xG
OT 3:10CHIC. Bedard0.14 xG

Team Stats

UTACHI

39Shots on goal25

4.80Expected goals2.68

68Shot attempts44

325v5 shots on goal22

1/2Power play0/1

12Hits20

11Blocked shots11

12Penalty minutes14

14Giveaways12

3Takeaways9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 4.80 xGCHI 2.68 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA38 on goal, 3 scored

CHI25 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Keller	RW	1	1	2	5	0	2	0	0	22:28	2:45
N. Schmaltz	C	1	0	1	4	1	3	0	0	19:52	2:44
B. Hayton	C	0	1	1	7	1	1	0	0	19:34	2:46
D. Guenther	RW	0	0	0	7	2	0	0	0	22:28	2:43
L. Cooley	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	18:14	0:03
A. Kerfoot	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	17:39	0:02
J. Doan	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:08	0:00
J. McBain	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	14:06	0:00
L. Crouse	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:30	0:00
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:50	0:00
M. Carcone	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	9:34	0:00
L. O'Brien	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	5	5:20	0:00
M. Sergachev	D	0	2	2	2	0	0	+2	0	27:03	2:46
J. Marino	D	1	0	1	1	0	1	+1	0	24:15	0:00
O. Maatta	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	18:58	0:00
S. Durzi	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	18:37	0:01
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	18:22	0:00
M. Kesselring	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	2	13:32	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	25	21	4	.840	63:10	OT loss
C. Ingram	0	0	0	–	0:00

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Bedard	C	1	1	2	5	2	1	+1	2	23:04	1:16
I. Mikheyev	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	19:09	0:56
R. Donato	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	5	18:32	1:04
T. Teravainen	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	17:36	0:58
F. Nazar	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	17:31	1:02
N. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	18:44	0:00
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	15:58	1:02
L. Slaggert	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	15:11	0:00
C. Dach	C	0	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	13:16	0:00
P. Maroon	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	5	10:27	0:58
L. Reichel	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	10:07	0:44
P. Kurashev	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	6:07	0:00
E. Del Mastro	D	0	1	1	2	1	3	+1	0	23:22	0:02
W. Kaiser	D	1	0	1	2	1	2	+1	0	17:48	0:00
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	23:28	0:00
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	22:16	1:16
L. Crevier	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	18:37	0:00
A. Martinez	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	15:31	0:42

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Knight	39	36	3	.923	63:10	Win
A. Soderblom	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	UTA 3.3, CHI 2.7	UTA 3, CHI 4
Total goals	6.0	7
Shots on goal	UTA 30.4, CHI 25.0	UTA 39, CHI 25
Win chance	UTA 58%	CHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
UTA D. Guenther	3.0	7	0.87	0	32%	0
UTA C. Keller	2.9	5	1.07	2	33%	1
CHI R. Donato	2.5	1	0.74	1	27%	0
CHI C. Bedard	2.4	5	0.85	2	26%	1
UTA L. Cooley	2.3	1	0.79	0	27%	0
UTA B. Hayton	2.2	7	0.58	1	21%	0
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.1	4	0.80	1	25%	1
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.8	3	0.62	0	25%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.8	1	0.45	1	21%	1
UTA J. Doan	1.8	1	0.48	0	17%	0
UTA M. Carcone	1.7	0	0.38	0	20%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.7	0	0.36	0	19%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	1.6	2	0.63	2	10%	0
CHI F. Nazar	1.6	2	0.49	1	17%	1
CHI T. Teravainen	1.6	0	0.74	1	23%	0
UTA S. Durzi	1.5	1	0.44	0	8%	0
UTA M. Kesselring	1.4	3	0.32	0	6%	0
CHI N. Foligno	1.3	1	0.40	0	16%	0
UTA A. Kerfoot	1.2	2	0.39	0	14%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.2	0	0.23	0	13%	0
CHI C. Murphy	1.2	2	0.26	0	6%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.2	0	0.32	0	4%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.1	1	0.35	0	15%	0
CHI C. Dach	1.1	2	0.35	0	13%	0
CHI L. Slaggert	1.1	1	0.28	0	13%	0
UTA L. O'Brien	1.1	1	0.18	0	7%	0
CHI A. Martinez	1.1	1	0.29	0	8%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	1.1	2	0.19	1	4%	1
CHI P. Maroon	1.1	1	0.29	0	10%	0
CHI P. Kurashev	1.0	0	0.34	0	12%	0
CHI L. Reichel	1.0	1	0.32	0	11%	0
UTA O. Maatta	0.9	2	0.26	0	5%	0
CHI L. Crevier	0.9	0	0.15	0	6%	0
UTA J. Marino	0.8	1	0.30	1	4%	1
UTA I. Cole	0.8	1	0.20	0	3%	0
CHI E. Mastro	0.8	2	0.25	1	8%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.