Game Recap: UTA 5, CHI 2, March 30, 2025

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Game Recap

UTA5

FinalSun, Mar 30, 2025Every game that night

CHI2

UTA beat CHI 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.77 expected goals to 2.95. A. Kerfoot led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). F. Nazar had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. K. Vejmelka stopped 27 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
UTA	0	3	2	5
CHI	0	2	0	2

2nd 8:21UTAN. DeSimone0.01 xG
2nd 11:02CHIJ. Veleno0.33 xG
2nd 14:55CHIR. Donato0.25 xG
2nd 16:37UTAM. Sergachev0.03 xG
2nd 17:08UTAA. Kerfoot0.21 xG
3rd 10:57UTAK. Yamamoto0.07 xG
3rd 12:54UTAL. Cooley0.12 xG

Team Stats

UTACHI

31Shots on goal29

3.77Expected goals2.95

68Shot attempts56

305v5 shots on goal25

0/1Power play0/4

15Hits15

17Blocked shots12

13Penalty minutes7

20Giveaways23

4Takeaways0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 3.77 xGCHI 2.95 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA31 on goal, 5 scored

CHI29 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Kerfoot	C	1	2	3	3	0	1	+3	0	14:53	0:00
L. Cooley	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	-1	0	16:26	1:54
D. Guenther	RW	0	1	1	1	3	0	-1	0	15:19	2:00
K. Stenlund	C	0	1	1	4	1	1	+2	0	15:13	0:06
C. Keller	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	14:13	1:53
L. Crouse	LW	0	1	1	2	2	2	+1	0	14:05	0:00
K. Yamamoto	RW	1	0	1	3	1	1	+1	2	12:58	0:00
N. Schmaltz	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	2	17:21	2:00
B. Hayton	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	2	16:12	0:00
J. McBain	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	5	13:32	0:00
J. Doan	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	12:12	0:00
N. Bjugstad	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	+2	2	11:22	0:00
M. Sergachev	D	1	1	2	2	0	2	0	0	23:52	2:00
J. Marino	D	0	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	20:42	0:00
N. DeSimone	D	1	0	1	3	2	3	+1	0	17:02	0:00
S. Durzi	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+2	0	19:59	0:07
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	+2	0	19:20	0:00
M. Kesselring	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	17:19	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	29	27	2	.931	60:00	Win
M. Villalta	0	0	0	–	0:00

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Bedard	C	0	1	1	4	1	0	-1	0	20:59	5:31
R. Donato	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	-1	0	17:24	4:56
J. Veleno	C	1	0	1	1	1	1	-1	0	13:03	0:03
N. Foligno	LW	0	1	1	0	3	0	-1	0	12:40	0:00
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	17:38	4:36
F. Nazar	C	0	0	0	5	0	1	-1	0	17:18	3:17
T. Teravainen	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	17:13	4:43
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	15:29	0:00
O. Moore	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	15:03	0:36
P. Maroon	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	7	13:46	3:24
L. Reichel	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:09	2:51
L. Slaggert	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:35	0:00
A. Levshunov	D	0	1	1	1	2	0	-1	0	20:52	5:15
S. Rinzel	D	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	0	20:15	2:45
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	-2	0	18:50	0:00
K. Korchinski	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-2	0	18:34	2:03
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	18:06	0:00
W. Kaiser	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	17:33	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Soderblom	31	26	5	.839	59:33	Loss
S. Knight	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	UTA 3.5, CHI 2.8	UTA 5, CHI 2
Total goals	6.4	7
Shots on goal	UTA 29.9, CHI 24.5	UTA 31, CHI 29
Win chance	UTA 61%	UTA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
UTA D. Guenther	2.9	1	0.84	1	32%	0
UTA C. Keller	2.7	1	1.10	1	33%	0
CHI R. Donato	2.5	2	0.82	1	29%	1
UTA L. Cooley	2.3	2	0.86	1	29%	1
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.2	3	0.90	0	27%	0
CHI C. Bedard	2.2	4	0.79	1	25%	0
UTA B. Hayton	1.9	1	0.55	0	20%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.8	1	0.51	0	23%	0
UTA J. Doan	1.6	1	0.46	0	17%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	1.6	2	0.69	2	12%	1
CHI F. Nazar	1.6	5	0.44	0	18%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.5	1	0.58	0	23%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.5	2	0.34	1	18%	0
UTA S. Durzi	1.5	1	0.48	0	10%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.4	0	0.76	0	23%	0
UTA N. Bjugstad	1.4	2	0.32	0	14%	0
UTA M. Kesselring	1.3	0	0.30	0	6%	0
CHI N. Foligno	1.3	0	0.44	1	16%	0
UTA A. Kerfoot	1.2	3	0.41	3	15%	1
CHI C. Murphy	1.1	2	0.23	0	6%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.1	4	0.28	1	15%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.1	1	0.38	0	16%	0
CHI A. Levshunov	1.1	1	0.38	1	6%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.1	0	0.30	0	5%	0
UTA N. DeSimone	1.0	3	0.26	1	5%	1
CHI W. Kaiser	1.0	2	0.22	0	5%	0
UTA K. Yamamoto	1.0	3	0.32	1	14%	1
CHI J. Veleno	1.0	1	0.29	1	13%	1
CHI L. Slaggert	1.0	1	0.21	0	11%	0
CHI K. Korchinski	1.0	2	0.16	0	5%	0
CHI P. Maroon	0.9	0	0.27	0	9%	0
CHI L. Reichel	0.9	1	0.27	0	10%	0
UTA J. Marino	0.8	1	0.35	2	4%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.7	0	0.21	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.