Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
UTA5
DAL3
UTA beat DAL 5-3, with the chances close: 2.68 expected goals to 2.65. UTA outshot DAL 34 to 24. L. Cooley led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). K. Vejmelka stopped 21 of 24.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| DAL | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
- 1st 2:48DALW. JohnstonPP0.15 xG
- 1st 8:11UTAB. HaytonPP0.11 xG
- 2nd 0:32DALB. SmithSH0.05 xG
- 2nd 1:21UTAS. DurziPP0.04 xG
- 2nd 7:04UTAL. Cooley0.10 xG
- 2nd 18:06UTAJ. DoanPP0.18 xG
- 2nd 18:53DALJ. Robertson0.09 xG
- 3rd 5:32UTAN. SchmaltzPP0.14 xG
Team Stats
UTADAL
34Shots on goal24
2.68Expected goals2.65
54Shot attempts44
265v5 shots on goal17
4/4Power play1/4
13Hits11
7Blocked shots8
8Penalty minutes8
16Giveaways16
4Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
UTA 2.68 xGDAL 2.65 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Cooley | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:21 | 1:19 |
| D. Guenther | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:58 | 2:08 |
| B. Hayton | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:05 | 2:09 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:01 | 1:20 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:08 | 2:08 |
| J. Doan | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:33 | 1:19 |
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:15 | 2:08 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:07 | 0:00 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:06 | 0:00 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:30 | 0:00 |
| K. Yamamoto | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:46 | 1:19 |
| N. Bjugstad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:44 | 0:00 |
| S. Durzi | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:25 | 1:09 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 22:02 | 2:18 |
| O. Maatta | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:22 | 0:00 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 4 | 18:22 | 0:00 |
| N. DeSimone | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:19 | 0:00 |
| M. Kesselring | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 17:05 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Vejmelka | 24 | 21 | 3 | .875 | 58:39 | Win |
| M. Villalta | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Rantanen | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:53 | 3:49 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:31 | 3:51 |
| W. Johnston | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:12 | 3:44 |
| R. Hintz | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:35 | 2:42 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:35 | 0:19 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 11:46 | 0:18 |
| M. Granlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:15 | 3:31 |
| M. Duchene | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:27 | 3:12 |
| E. Dadonov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:42 | 2:02 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:20 | 1:45 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:03 | 2:09 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:55 | 0:14 |
| M. Dumba | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:16 | 2:41 |
| B. Smith | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:55 | 0:20 |
| L. Bichsel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18:32 | 0:00 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:15 | 0:00 |
| A. Petrovic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 17:48 | 0:00 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:26 | 0:23 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. DeSmith | 34 | 29 | 5 | .853 | 59:07 | Loss |
| J. Oettinger | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UTA 3.1, DAL 3.3 | UTA 5, DAL 3 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | UTA 30.6, DAL 27.0 | UTA 34, DAL 24 |
| Win chance | DAL 53% | UTA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA D. Guenther | 3.0 | 3 | 0.75 | 2 | 28% | 0 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.5 | 3 | 0.88 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| DAL J. Robertson | 2.4 | 3 | 0.94 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| DAL M. Rantanen | 2.3 | 0 | 0.96 | 2 | 34% | 0 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.2 | 2 | 0.76 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| UTA L. Cooley | 2.1 | 1 | 0.66 | 3 | 23% | 1 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 2.0 | 4 | 0.64 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 1.9 | 2 | 0.45 | 2 | 17% | 1 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 1.9 | 1 | 0.82 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.8 | 0 | 0.81 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.7 | 2 | 0.51 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| UTA S. Durzi | 1.7 | 3 | 0.38 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| UTA M. Kesselring | 1.6 | 3 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA J. Doan | 1.6 | 3 | 0.37 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| DAL M. Granlund | 1.6 | 0 | 0.64 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.5 | 3 | 0.60 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| UTA N. Bjugstad | 1.4 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.3 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.3 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DAL E. Dadonov | 1.3 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.2 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 1.2 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| UTA K. Yamamoto | 1.2 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| UTA N. DeSimone | 1.2 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 1.1 | 2 | 0.31 | 2 | 13% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.1 | 0 | 0.24 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL C. Ceci | 1.0 | 3 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.0 | 0 | 0.27 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL L. Bichsel | 1.0 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| UTA O. Maatta | 0.9 | 1 | 0.17 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| DAL M. Dumba | 0.9 | 3 | 0.15 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.8 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| DAL B. Smith | 0.8 | 3 | 0.16 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.7 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DAL A. Petrovic | 0.6 | 3 | 0.08 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.6 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.