UTA beat DET 4-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.68 expected goals to 4.92. DET outshot UTA 40 to 19. M. Kesselring led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). D. Larkin had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. K. Vejmelka stopped 38 of 40.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| DET | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 2:08UTAD. Guenther0.04 xG
- 1st 3:17DETD. Larkin0.13 xG
- 1st 8:49DETJ. Berggren0.67 xG
- 2nd 13:01UTAN. SchmaltzPP0.17 xG
- 3rd 2:55UTAK. Stenlund0.11 xG
- 3rd 7:51UTAL. Crouse0.18 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
UTA 2.68 xGDET 4.92 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Schmaltz | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:18 | 4:26 |
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:48 | 4:29 |
| B. Hayton | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:32 | 4:27 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 15:52 | 0:00 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:39 | 0:49 |
| D. Guenther | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:37 | 4:26 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:28 | 0:00 |
| J. Doan | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:17 | 0:00 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:07 | 0:52 |
| L. Cooley | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18:56 | 0:51 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:53 | 0:52 |
| L. O'Brien | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:44 | 0:00 |
| M. Kesselring | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:20 | 0:00 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 22:14 | 4:25 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:32 | 0:00 |
| J. Marino | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:22 | 0:00 |
| O. Maatta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:20 | 0:00 |
| S. Durzi | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:01 | 0:53 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Vejmelka | 40 | 38 | 2 | .950 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. Ingram | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Larkin | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 24:53 | 3:59 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 19:36 | 3:55 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:02 | 1:50 |
| E. Soderblom | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:56 | 0:07 |
| T. Motte | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:23 | 0:00 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:17 | 0:49 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:45 | 4:10 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:17 | 1:02 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 19:40 | 4:02 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:54 | 1:54 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:28 | 1:57 |
| C. Mazur | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1:10 | 0:00 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 26:11 | 4:04 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:44 | 0:11 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 20:31 | 0:00 |
| E. Gustafsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:05 | 1:56 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:55 | 0:04 |
| J. Holl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:57 | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UTA 3.1, DET 3.1 | UTA 4, DET 2 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | UTA 28.0, DET 28.2 | UTA 19, DET 40 |
| Win chance | DET 51% | UTA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET D. Larkin | 2.9 | 7 | 0.87 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 2.9 | 4 | 0.85 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| UTA D. Guenther | 2.9 | 4 | 0.88 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.7 | 1 | 1.04 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.6 | 5 | 0.86 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| UTA L. Cooley | 2.2 | 0 | 0.78 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.2 | 4 | 0.86 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 2.1 | 0 | 0.56 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 1.9 | 1 | 0.76 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| DET V. Tarasenko | 1.9 | 2 | 0.57 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.9 | 3 | 0.48 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.9 | 2 | 0.55 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| UTA J. Doan | 1.7 | 1 | 0.47 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.7 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.6 | 2 | 0.63 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.6 | 2 | 0.36 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| UTA S. Durzi | 1.6 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.4 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET E. Soderblom | 1.4 | 1 | 0.43 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.4 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| UTA M. Kesselring | 1.4 | 3 | 0.30 | 2 | 6% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.2 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 1.2 | 0 | 0.38 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.1 | 2 | 0.21 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| DET E. Gustafsson | 1.1 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| UTA L. O'Brien | 1.1 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 1.0 | 2 | 0.33 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| DET J. Berggren | 1.0 | 2 | 0.31 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.0 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| UTA O. Maatta | 0.9 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET T. Motte | 0.9 | 1 | 0.14 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA J. Marino | 0.8 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DET J. Holl | 0.5 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.