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Game Recap
UTA2
FinalSat, Oct 26, 2024Every game that night
LAK3

LAK beat UTA 3-2, with the chances close: 2.22 expected goals to 2.04. J. Edmundson led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Spence had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. D. Kuemper stopped 24 of 26.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
UTA0112
LAK0213
  1. 2nd 7:51LAKB. ClarkePP0.05 xG
  2. 2nd 13:10LAKJ. Edmundson0.17 xG
  3. 2nd 15:55UTAC. Keller0.06 xG
  4. 3rd 1:09LAKJ. Edmundson0.03 xG
  5. 3rd 9:47UTAL. Cooley0.11 xG

Team Stats

UTALAK
26Shots on goal23
2.04Expected goals2.22
56Shot attempts45
245v5 shots on goal20
0/3Power play1/3
20Hits26
13Blocked shots15
6Penalty minutes6
16Giveaways14
7Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 2.04 xGLAK 2.22 xGGoal

00.511.522.51st2nd3rdLAK goal, 7:51LAK goal, 13:10UTA goal, 15:55LAK goal, 1:09UTA goal, 9:47

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA26 on goal, 2 scored
LAK22 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. KellerRW101301+1021:462:45
N. SchmaltzC011201+1017:132:34
D. GuentherRW011020+2015:332:41
L. CooleyC101310+1015:051:28
B. HaytonC000301+1018:252:35
K. StenlundC000201-1016:320:08
A. KerfootC000113-1015:260:00
L. CrouseLW000340-1014:311:25
M. MaccelliLW000001-1014:021:26
N. BjugstadC000040-1012:491:15
J. McBainC0000210012:040:00
J. DoanRW000000008:440:00
M. SergachevD0111110026:182:40
M. KesselringD0112200223:471:28
M. LamoureuxD000110-1220:400:07
I. ColeD0003100218:060:08
V. KolyachonokD000011+1013:310:00
R. BortuzzoD000202-1012:090:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
C. Ingram23203.87058:06Loss
K. Vejmelka000–0:00

LAK Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
A. KempeRW022210+1017:512:14
Q. ByfieldRW011000+1019:261:07
A. KopitarC011000+1018:062:18
K. FialaLW011100-1410:122:13
P. DanaultC000202-1018:411:03
T. MooreLW000151-1017:381:08
W. FoegeleLW0001200014:390:00
A. LaferriereRW0000200014:212:14
A. TurcotteC0003000012:251:07
T. JeannotLW0001400212:040:00
T. LewisC0001300011:250:00
A. LeeLW0000110010:280:00
J. EdmundsonD2023230021:190:00
B. ClarkeD112104+1018:242:23
M. AndersonD000022-1022:580:00
V. GavrikovD0001000021:450:00
J. SpenceD0005110018:010:58
C. JonesD0001310014:170:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Kuemper26242.92360:00Win
D. Rittich000–0:00

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreUTA 3.0, LAK 3.4UTA 2, LAK 3
Total goals6.45
Shots on goalUTA 26.3, LAK 32.0UTA 26, LAK 23
Win chanceLAK 57%LAK won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
LAK A. Kempe2.820.90234%0
UTA C. Keller2.630.88131%1
LAK K. Fiala2.510.89129%0
LAK T. Moore2.410.58023%0
UTA D. Guenther2.400.66126%0
LAK W. Foegele2.210.48020%0
UTA N. Bjugstad2.100.49022%0
UTA B. Hayton1.930.45018%0
LAK A. Laferriere1.900.43019%0
UTA N. Schmaltz1.920.77124%0
LAK Q. Byfield1.900.62117%0
LAK P. Danault1.720.58021%0
UTA L. Crouse1.730.43021%0
UTA M. Sergachev1.610.5817%0
UTA L. Cooley1.630.48117%1
LAK B. Clarke1.610.4427%1
UTA J. Doan1.600.48018%0
LAK A. Kopitar1.500.85125%0
LAK V. Gavrikov1.410.3708%0
UTA M. Maccelli1.300.51013%0
UTA M. Kesselring1.320.3717%0
LAK M. Anderson1.200.3007%0
UTA A. Kerfoot1.210.43013%0
LAK T. Lewis1.210.2009%0
LAK J. Spence1.250.4006%0
LAK A. Lee1.100.2109%0
LAK A. Turcotte1.130.30010%0
LAK J. Edmundson1.130.2325%2
UTA K. Stenlund1.020.16011%0
LAK T. Jeannot0.910.24012%0
UTA J. McBain0.800.33012%0
LAK C. Jones0.810.1905%0
UTA I. Cole0.730.1903%0
UTA V. Kolyachonok0.600.1804%0
UTA R. Bortuzzo0.420.0802%0

Shots on goal: 14 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.