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Game Recap
UTA3
LAK5
LAK beat UTA 5-3 despite fewer good chances: 2.55 expected goals to 3.24. B. Hayton scored three for UTA. C. Keller had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. D. Kuemper stopped 25 of 28.
Team Stats
UTALAK
28Shots on goal26
3.24Expected goals2.55
69Shot attempts66
245v5 shots on goal22
2/2Power play1/2
20Hits24
20Blocked shots23
2Penalty minutes4
22Giveaways13
3Takeaways1
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
UTA 3.24 xGLAK 2.55 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Hayton | C | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:11 | 0:46 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:06 | 0:46 |
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:40 | 0:46 |
| D. Guenther | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:29 | 0:46 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:34 | 0:00 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:42 | 0:00 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:10 | 0:00 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:06 | 0:00 |
| J. Doan | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:42 | 0:00 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:18 | 0:00 |
| N. Bjugstad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:43 | 0:00 |
| L. O'Brien | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10:39 | 0:00 |
| S. Durzi | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:37 | 0:00 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:51 | 0:46 |
| O. Maatta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 22:30 | 0:00 |
| J. Marino | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 21:07 | 0:00 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 15:09 | 0:00 |
| M. Kesselring | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 13:21 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Ingram | 25 | 21 | 4 | .840 | 58:36 | Loss |
| K. Vejmelka | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Danault | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 20:58 | 0:52 |
| K. Fiala | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:14 | 1:34 |
| A. Laferriere | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:23 | 1:33 |
| A. Kopitar | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:20 | 1:27 |
| T. Lewis | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 9:57 | 0:00 |
| T. Moore | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:50 | 0:56 |
| Q. Byfield | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 19:16 | 1:04 |
| A. Kempe | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:39 | 1:37 |
| W. Foegele | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:21 | 0:50 |
| T. Jeannot | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:21 | 0:00 |
| A. Turcotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:12 | 0:00 |
| D. Doughty | D | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | +3 | 2 | 21:40 | 1:37 |
| J. Edmundson | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 21:46 | 0:00 |
| M. Anderson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:19 | 0:05 |
| J. Spence | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 12:19 | 0:49 |
| V. Gavrikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 22:27 | 0:03 |
| J. Moverare | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 12:59 | 0:00 |
| B. Clarke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:15 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Kuemper | 28 | 25 | 3 | .893 | 59:58 | Win |
| D. Rittich | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UTA 2.7, LAK 3.0 | UTA 3, LAK 5 |
| Total goals | 5.6 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | UTA 25.9, LAK 29.3 | UTA 28, LAK 26 |
| Win chance | LAK 55% | LAK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK K. Fiala | 3.2 | 3 | 0.92 | 2 | 33% | 1 |
| LAK A. Kempe | 3.1 | 2 | 0.90 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.7 | 7 | 0.93 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| UTA D. Guenther | 2.7 | 2 | 0.76 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 2.6 | 3 | 0.55 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| LAK W. Foegele | 2.4 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| LAK T. Moore | 2.3 | 2 | 0.58 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 2.1 | 0 | 0.68 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 2.0 | 1 | 0.70 | 2 | 23% | 0 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 1.8 | 3 | 0.44 | 3 | 17% | 3 |
| LAK D. Doughty | 1.7 | 1 | 0.62 | 3 | 14% | 1 |
| LAK P. Danault | 1.7 | 2 | 0.60 | 2 | 20% | 0 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.6 | 3 | 0.59 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| LAK V. Gavrikov | 1.6 | 3 | 0.37 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| UTA N. Bjugstad | 1.6 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| LAK B. Clarke | 1.6 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.6 | 1 | 0.33 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| UTA S. Durzi | 1.5 | 4 | 0.42 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kopitar | 1.5 | 0 | 0.80 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| UTA J. Doan | 1.5 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.4 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| UTA M. Kesselring | 1.4 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| LAK J. Edmundson | 1.3 | 2 | 0.22 | 2 | 6% | 0 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 1.2 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| LAK J. Spence | 1.2 | 1 | 0.33 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.1 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| LAK M. Anderson | 1.1 | 2 | 0.24 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| UTA L. O'Brien | 1.1 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| LAK A. Turcotte | 1.0 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 1.0 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| LAK T. Lewis | 0.9 | 2 | 0.16 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| UTA J. Marino | 0.9 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA O. Maatta | 0.8 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| LAK T. Jeannot | 0.8 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| LAK J. Moverare | 0.6 | 1 | 0.10 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.