Game Recap: UTA 4, MIN 0, January 23, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

UTA4

FinalThu, Jan 23, 2025Every game that night

MIN0

UTA beat MIN 4-0, with the chances close: 2.38 expected goals to 2.59. B. Hayton led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). M. Zuccarello had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. K. Vejmelka stopped 26 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
UTA	2	1	1	4
MIN	0	0	0	0

1st 1:46UTAB. Hayton0.22 xG
1st 15:55UTAC. KellerPP0.09 xG
2nd 14:14UTAL. Crouse0.16 xG
3rd 1:48UTAB. Hayton0.25 xG

Team Stats

UTAMIN

29Shots on goal26

2.38Expected goals2.59

44Shot attempts57

265v5 shots on goal19

1/2Power play0/3

15Hits14

12Blocked shots6

6Penalty minutes4

15Giveaways15

3Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 2.38 xGMIN 2.59 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA28 on goal, 4 scored

MIN26 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Hayton	C	2	0	2	4	0	0	+2	0	14:34	0:00
C. Keller	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	17:00	3:24
N. Schmaltz	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	15:36	3:24
L. Crouse	LW	1	0	1	3	2	0	+2	0	14:42	0:00
M. Maccelli	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	13:40	0:13
L. Cooley	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	18:53	3:24
J. Doan	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	16:38	3:11
J. McBain	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	14:44	0:00
A. Kerfoot	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	14:12	0:00
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	13:26	0:00
N. Bjugstad	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	12:49	0:00
L. O'Brien	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	+1	0	10:33	0:00
N. DeSimone	D	0	2	2	0	0	1	+2	0	17:02	0:00
O. Maatta	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	20:27	0:00
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	+1	2	21:19	0:00
J. Marino	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	20:45	0:10
M. Kesselring	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	2	20:41	3:14
J. Välimäki	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	16:59	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	26	26	0	1.000	60:00	Win
C. Ingram	0	0	0	–	0:00

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Rossi	C	1	0	0	0	2	18:35	1:28
M. Zuccarello	RW	7	0	0	-1	0	18:12	5:01
J. Eriksson Ek	C	4	1	0	-1	0	17:20	4:01
M. Boldy	LW	1	0	0	-1	0	17:15	4:30
F. Gaudreau	C	1	2	0	-2	0	17:06	1:31
K. Kaprizov	LW	3	0	1	-1	0	16:39	4:31
L. Ohgren	LW	2	0	1	-1	0	15:41	0:53
M. Foligno	LW	2	1	0	-1	0	15:14	0:00
R. Hartman	RW	1	2	0	0	2	13:03	1:59
M. Khusnutdinov	C	1	0	0	0	0	11:48	0:00
Y. Trenin	C	0	1	0	0	0	11:05	0:00
J. Lauko	C	0	2	0	-1	0	10:40	0:00
B. Faber	D	1	0	0	0	0	21:56	1:45
J. Middleton	D	0	1	1	0	0	21:14	0:06
J. Spurgeon	D	0	1	1	-1	0	20:15	4:15
J. Merrill	D	2	0	2	-2	0	17:29	0:00
D. Chisholm	D	0	1	0	-2	0	16:40	0:00
Z. Bogosian	D	0	2	0	-1	0	16:24	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Gustavsson	29	25	4	.862	60:00	Loss
M. Fleury	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	UTA 3.0, MIN 3.1	UTA 4, MIN 0
Total goals	6.1	4
Shots on goal	UTA 28.6, MIN 29.2	UTA 29, MIN 26
Win chance	MIN 52%	UTA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.5	3	1.31	0	46%	0
MIN M. Boldy	3.5	1	0.99	0	35%	0
MIN J. Ek	3.0	4	0.77	0	29%	0
MIN M. Zuccarello	2.5	7	1.03	0	26%	0
UTA L. Cooley	2.3	2	0.80	0	27%	0
UTA C. Keller	2.3	1	0.87	1	28%	1
MIN M. Rossi	2.1	1	0.71	0	27%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.0	1	0.50	0	21%	0
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.0	2	0.76	1	23%	0
UTA M. Kesselring	1.7	3	0.35	0	7%	0
UTA N. Bjugstad	1.7	2	0.36	0	17%	0
UTA J. Doan	1.6	1	0.47	0	18%	0
UTA B. Hayton	1.5	4	0.42	2	16%	2
UTA L. Crouse	1.5	3	0.35	1	18%	1
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.5	0	0.38	0	9%	0
UTA M. Maccelli	1.5	1	0.49	1	15%	0
MIN B. Faber	1.4	1	0.50	0	9%	0
MIN J. Middleton	1.4	0	0.36	0	9%	0
MIN F. Gaudreau	1.4	1	0.37	0	16%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	1.3	0	0.24	0	6%	0
MIN L. Ohgren	1.2	2	0.26	0	10%	0
MIN D. Chisholm	1.2	0	0.30	0	7%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.1	0	0.21	0	13%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.1	0	0.22	0	13%	0
MIN M. Foligno	1.0	2	0.35	0	15%	0
UTA A. Kerfoot	1.0	2	0.36	0	12%	0
UTA I. Cole	1.0	0	0.23	0	3%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.0	1	0.34	0	15%	0
UTA N. DeSimone	1.0	0	0.20	2	4%	0
UTA O. Maatta	1.0	1	0.25	1	4%	0
UTA L. O'Brien	0.9	2	0.15	0	6%	0
UTA J. Välimäki	0.9	2	0.21	0	3%	0
UTA J. Marino	0.8	2	0.29	0	4%	0
MIN J. Merrill	0.8	2	0.19	0	5%	0
MIN J. Lauko	0.7	0	0.17	0	8%	0
MIN M. Khusnutdinov	0.5	1	0.14	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.