Game Recap: UTA 0, NSH 4, November 9, 2024

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Game Recap

UTA0

FinalSat, Nov 9, 2024Every game that night

NSH4

NSH beat UTA 4-0, with the chances close: 2.14 expected goals to 2.09. F. Forsberg led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). M. Kesselring had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. J. Saros stopped 27 of 27.

Team Stats

UTANSH

27Shots on goal21

2.09Expected goals2.14

59Shot attempts40

245v5 shots on goal13

0/2Power play2/4

18Hits35

9Blocked shots12

13Penalty minutes9

16Giveaways10

7Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 2.09 xGNSH 2.14 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA27 on goal, 0 scored

NSH20 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Keller	RW	0	1	0	-2	0	18:55	2:42
D. Guenther	RW	0	0	0	-1	0	18:34	2:42
N. Schmaltz	C	3	2	0	-1	0	17:35	2:42
A. Kerfoot	C	2	0	0	-1	2	16:46	2:42
M. Maccelli	LW	1	2	0	-1	0	16:36	1:18
L. Cooley	C	3	0	0	-1	2	16:04	1:18
K. Stenlund	C	1	0	1	0	0	14:00	0:00
L. Crouse	LW	1	3	0	0	5	13:39	1:18
B. Hayton	C	0	0	2	-1	0	13:38	0:43
N. Bjugstad	C	1	0	0	0	0	12:08	0:35
M. Carcone	LW	2	2	0	0	0	12:07	0:00
J. McBain	C	1	4	1	0	0	12:03	0:00
M. Sergachev	D	1	1	2	-1	0	25:39	2:42
I. Cole	D	3	0	2	0	0	18:36	0:00
M. Kesselring	D	5	1	0	-1	0	18:00	1:18
O. Maatta	D	1	0	1	-1	4	17:49	0:00
J. Välimäki	D	1	1	0	0	0	17:29	0:00
M. Lamoureux	D	1	1	0	0	0	16:22	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Ingram	20	17	3	.850	57:24	Loss
K. Vejmelka	0	0	0	–	0:00

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
F. Forsberg	LW	2	0	2	4	0	0	+1	2	18:33	4:04
J. Marchessault	RW	1	1	2	3	4	0	+1	0	17:46	4:04
S. Stamkos	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	18:53	4:04
G. Nyquist	RW	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	16:03	0:32
J. Parssinen	C	0	1	1	0	6	0	0	0	13:25	0:44
R. O'Reilly	C	0	0	0	0	2	3	+1	0	17:07	3:20
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	15:00	0:32
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	7	14:13	0:00
P. Tomasino	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	13:57	0:32
L. Evangelista	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:07	0:32
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:36	0:00
Z. L'Heureux	LW	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	10:54	0:00
R. Josi	D	0	2	2	3	1	0	+1	0	23:45	4:04
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	20:47	0:32
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	+1	0	19:26	0:00
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	1	5	1	+1	0	19:13	0:00
M. Del Gaizo	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	16:30	0:00
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	0	7	1	0	0	15:57	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	27	27	0	1.000	59:48	Win
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamAlexander Kerfoot NSH First game against UTA since he left (his team until May 2026)2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	UTA 3.0, NSH 3.5	UTA 0, NSH 4
Total goals	6.4	4
Shots on goal	UTA 26.8, NSH 32.9	UTA 27, NSH 21
Win chance	NSH 58%	NSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NSH F. Forsberg	3.4	4	1.03	2	38%	2
NSH R. Josi	3.2	3	0.98	2	24%	0
UTA C. Keller	2.7	0	0.92	0	31%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.7	2	0.96	1	35%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	2.6	3	0.77	2	32%	1
UTA D. Guenther	2.5	0	0.70	0	26%	0
NSH B. Skjei	2.2	0	0.56	0	15%	0
UTA B. Hayton	1.9	0	0.43	0	17%	0
UTA L. Cooley	1.9	3	0.57	0	20%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	1.8	0	0.46	0	16%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.8	1	0.44	0	21%	0
UTA N. Schmaltz	1.8	3	0.74	0	22%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.8	0	0.76	0	25%	0
UTA N. Bjugstad	1.8	1	0.42	0	18%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	1.7	1	0.63	0	10%	0
UTA M. Maccelli	1.5	1	0.57	0	15%	0
UTA M. Carcone	1.4	2	0.31	0	18%	0
NSH G. Nyquist	1.4	2	0.74	1	21%	1
UTA A. Kerfoot	1.4	2	0.45	0	14%	0
UTA M. Kesselring	1.3	5	0.39	0	9%	0
NSH L. Schenn	1.2	0	0.19	0	5%	0
NSH M. Gaizo	1.2	1	0.29	0	4%	0
NSH P. Tomasino	1.2	2	0.41	0	12%	0
NSH A. Carrier	1.1	1	0.36	0	7%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.1	0	0.27	0	13%	0
NSH J. Lauzon	1.1	1	0.18	0	6%	0
NSH C. Smith	1.1	0	0.25	0	10%	0
NSH C. Sissons	1.0	1	0.30	0	12%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.0	1	0.17	0	11%	0
NSH J. Parssinen	0.9	0	0.37	1	14%	0
NSH Z. L'Heureux	0.9	1	0.25	0	9%	0
UTA J. Välimäki	0.9	1	0.24	0	4%	0
UTA J. McBain	0.8	1	0.35	0	12%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.7	3	0.22	0	4%	0
UTA O. Maatta	0.7	1	0.22	0	5%	0
UTA M. Lamoureux	0.7	1	0.21	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.