Game Recap: UTA 7, NSH 3, April 14, 2025

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Game Recap

UTA7

FinalMon, Apr 14, 2025Every game that night

NSH3

UTA beat NSH 7-3, with the chances close: 3.86 expected goals to 3.44. C. Keller led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). M. Bunting had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. M. Villalta stopped 28 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
UTA	2	2	3	7
NSH	1	2	0	3

1st 6:10NSHR. O'ReillyPP0.11 xG
1st 12:30UTAM. Kesselring0.06 xG
1st 18:21UTAN. Bjugstad0.12 xG
2nd 3:03UTAL. Cooley0.14 xG
2nd 4:13UTAN. SchmaltzPP0.28 xG
2nd 11:01NSHL. Evangelista0.26 xG
2nd 14:20NSHM. Bunting0.68 xG
3rd 12:05UTAC. Keller0.13 xG
3rd 18:13UTAC. KellerEN0.61 xG
3rd 19:35UTAK. Stenlund0.06 xG

Team Stats

UTANSH

36Shots on goal31

3.86Expected goals3.44

55Shot attempts59

315v5 shots on goal23

1/4Power play1/3

14Hits20

15Blocked shots12

6Penalty minutes6

15Giveaways23

2Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 3.86 xGNSH 3.44 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA35 on goal, 7 scored

NSH30 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Keller	RW	2	2	4	5	0	2	+2	0	18:42	5:13
L. Cooley	C	1	2	3	1	0	1	+3	0	15:56	1:37
A. Kerfoot	C	0	3	3	0	0	2	+3	0	14:09	0:00
K. Stenlund	C	1	1	2	2	1	1	+3	2	14:12	0:00
D. Guenther	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+2	0	19:09	4:36
B. Hayton	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	-2	2	17:23	5:12
N. Schmaltz	C	1	0	1	3	0	1	-1	0	16:10	5:08
N. Bjugstad	C	1	0	1	4	2	0	+3	0	12:24	0:00
J. McBain	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	14:34	1:38
J. Doan	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	12:07	1:42
L. O'Brien	C	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	11:54	0:00
L. Crouse	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	11:39	0:00
M. Kesselring	D	1	1	2	4	0	1	+2	2	17:43	2:03
I. Cole	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	+2	0	20:29	0:02
O. Maatta	D	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	17:56	0:10
M. Sergachev	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+2	0	25:24	4:47
S. Durzi	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	+2	0	20:37	2:02
N. DeSimone	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	13:32	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Villalta	31	28	3	.903	60:00	Win
K. Vejmelka	0	0	0	–	0:00

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. O'Reilly	C	1	1	2	2	0	0	-2	0	18:56	3:20
F. Forsberg	LW	0	1	1	3	5	0	-2	0	17:16	3:36
M. Bunting	LW	1	0	1	5	0	0	0	0	15:20	2:45
L. Evangelista	RW	1	0	1	4	0	0	-1	0	14:12	0:45
M. Wood	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	13:14	0:45
F. Svechkov	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	-1	0	16:35	1:01
J. Marchessault	RW	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	15:50	3:36
Z. L'Heureux	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	0	15:49	0:00
S. Stamkos	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	15:17	3:36
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	14:03	0:00
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	0	13:59	0:00
J. Vrana	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-3	0	8:22	0:00
J. Barron	D	0	1	1	0	1	4	-1	0	22:14	0:00
B. Skjei	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	-3	2	19:51	0:45
J. Oesterle	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	21:46	0:00
N. Blankenburg	D	0	0	0	4	0	3	-3	2	19:12	1:36
R. Ufko	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:37	0:00
M. Del Gaizo	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	15:31	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	35	29	6	.829	59:46	Loss
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamAlexander Kerfoot NSH First game against UTA since he left (his team until May 2026)3 A, 0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	UTA 3.2, NSH 3.1	UTA 7, NSH 3
Total goals	6.3	10
Shots on goal	UTA 28.0, NSH 28.6	UTA 36, NSH 31
Win chance	UTA 52%	UTA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NSH F. Forsberg	3.3	3	0.96	1	36%	0
UTA D. Guenther	3.0	2	0.85	1	29%	0
UTA C. Keller	2.5	5	0.97	4	29%	2
NSH J. Marchessault	2.4	3	0.72	0	30%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.3	2	0.83	0	34%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	2.2	4	0.53	1	19%	1
NSH B. Skjei	2.1	1	0.49	1	14%	0
UTA L. Cooley	2.1	1	0.77	3	25%	1
NSH M. Bunting	2.1	5	0.61	1	23%	1
UTA N. Schmaltz	1.9	3	0.70	1	21%	1
UTA B. Hayton	1.9	0	0.52	1	18%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.9	2	0.67	2	24%	1
UTA J. Doan	1.6	1	0.44	0	15%	0
UTA S. Durzi	1.6	3	0.49	0	12%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	1.6	2	0.63	0	13%	0
UTA M. Kesselring	1.5	4	0.31	2	7%	1
NSH M. Gaizo	1.5	1	0.22	0	5%	0
NSH J. Barron	1.5	0	0.28	1	11%	0
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.5	4	0.33	0	9%	0
NSH J. Vrana	1.4	1	0.39	0	20%	0
UTA N. Bjugstad	1.4	4	0.30	1	13%	1
NSH Z. L'Heureux	1.4	1	0.29	0	11%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.3	1	0.30	0	15%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.3	0	0.28	0	13%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.3	2	0.32	2	14%	1
NSH F. Svechkov	1.2	0	0.34	0	15%	0
UTA A. Kerfoot	1.2	0	0.40	3	13%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.1	0	0.37	0	14%	0
NSH C. Smith	1.1	2	0.23	0	9%	0
UTA N. DeSimone	1.1	2	0.26	0	7%	0
NSH J. Oesterle	1.1	1	0.20	0	5%	0
UTA L. O'Brien	0.9	3	0.14	0	5%	0
UTA O. Maatta	0.8	2	0.23	1	5%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.8	1	0.19	1	4%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.