Game Recap: UTA 5, NYI 4 (OT), October 10, 2024

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Game Recap

UTA5

Final/OTThu, Oct 10, 2024Every game that night

NYI4

UTA beat NYI 5-4 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.15 expected goals to 2.98. D. Guenther led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). N. Schmaltz had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. C. Ingram stopped 23 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
UTA	1	1	2	1	5
NYI	1	0	3	0	4

1st 11:10NYIA. DuclairPP0.10 xG
1st 19:01UTAL. CrousePP0.17 xG
2nd 13:07UTAB. Hayton0.11 xG
3rd 1:03NYIB. Horvat0.12 xG
3rd 6:52NYIJ. PageauSH0.47 xG
3rd 7:37UTAD. GuentherPP0.10 xG
3rd 17:53NYIM. Tsyplakov0.09 xG
3rd 18:06UTAJ. Doan0.13 xG
OT 2:18UTAD. Guenther0.33 xG

Team Stats

UTANYI

26Shots on goal27

3.15Expected goals2.98

57Shot attempts64

215v5 shots on goal16

2/2Power play1/6

13Hits24

20Blocked shots20

10Penalty minutes4

19Giveaways11

11Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 3.15 xGNYI 2.98 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA25 on goal, 5 scored

NYI27 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Keller	RW	0	2	2	3	2	0	-1	0	20:06	0:56
L. Crouse	LW	1	1	2	1	0	2	+1	0	13:06	0:44
D. Guenther	RW	2	0	2	3	0	1	-1	0	12:58	0:56
L. Cooley	C	0	2	2	1	1	0	0	2	12:14	0:44
B. Hayton	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	-1	0	18:39	0:56
A. Kerfoot	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	15:27	0:00
M. Maccelli	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	12:00	0:44
J. Doan	RW	1	0	1	1	2	0	+1	0	10:58	0:44
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	18:05	0:00
N. Schmaltz	C	0	0	0	5	0	0	-1	0	17:46	0:56
M. Carcone	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:41	0:00
J. McBain	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	10:40	0:00
M. Sergachev	D	0	2	2	1	0	3	-1	0	24:59	0:56
S. Durzi	D	0	1	1	1	1	4	+1	2	25:28	0:44
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	-1	4	20:20	0:00
M. Kesselring	D	0	0	0	3	2	0	+1	2	17:58	0:00
J. Välimäki	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	0	17:40	0:00
V. Kolyachonok	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	14:53	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Ingram	27	23	4	.852	62:18	Win
K. Vejmelka	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Duclair	LW	1	1	2	2	1	0	0	0	19:45	6:42
M. Barzal	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	22:46	7:47
M. Tsyplakov	RW	1	0	1	3	7	0	+1	0	20:46	7:38
B. Horvat	C	1	0	1	5	0	0	+1	0	20:44	7:04
B. Nelson	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	18:28	3:52
K. Palmieri	C	0	1	1	5	1	2	0	2	16:53	3:10
J. Pageau	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	-1	0	13:05	1:53
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	12:13	1:46
A. Lee	LW	0	0	0	3	3	0	-1	0	14:26	3:15
K. MacLean	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	12:01	0:00
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	11:09	0:00
O. Wahlstrom	RW	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	10:52	0:00
N. Dobson	D	0	2	2	0	1	3	-1	0	24:51	7:11
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	21:01	0:15
R. Pulock	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	+1	0	20:51	0:18
A. Romanov	D	0	0	0	4	1	4	-1	2	17:58	0:18
M. Reilly	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	13:53	3:31
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	13:32	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Varlamov	26	21	5	.808	62:18	OT loss
I. Sorokin	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamAnders Lee UTA First game back in New York, his team until Apr 20263 SOG
Old teamMatias Maccelli NYI Faces UTA, his team until Mar 20251 A, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	UTA 3.1, NYI 3.4	UTA 5, NYI 4
Total goals	6.4	9
Shots on goal	UTA 29.4, NYI 32.0	UTA 26, NYI 27
Win chance	NYI 55%	UTA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYI B. Horvat	3.2	5	0.84	1	35%	1
UTA C. Keller	3.0	3	0.92	2	31%	0
NYI K. Palmieri	3.0	5	0.73	1	29%	0
NYI M. Barzal	3.0	1	0.99	1	25%	0
UTA D. Guenther	2.9	3	0.72	2	27%	2
NYI B. Nelson	2.9	2	0.92	1	36%	0
NYI A. Lee	2.3	3	0.53	0	25%	0
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.2	5	0.82	0	26%	0
UTA L. Cooley	2.1	1	0.54	2	20%	0
UTA B. Hayton	2.1	2	0.43	1	16%	1
UTA S. Durzi	2.1	1	0.51	1	9%	0
NYI M. Reilly	2.0	0	0.35	0	7%	0
NYI N. Dobson	2.0	0	0.72	2	12%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.9	1	0.45	2	21%	1
UTA J. Doan	1.7	1	0.50	1	17%	1
NYI R. Pulock	1.6	0	0.41	0	8%	0
NYI O. Wahlstrom	1.6	0	0.30	0	14%	0
UTA A. Kerfoot	1.6	3	0.53	1	16%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	1.6	1	0.49	2	7%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.5	2	0.52	2	22%	1
UTA M. Carcone	1.5	1	0.32	0	18%	0
UTA M. Maccelli	1.5	1	0.53	1	14%	0
UTA M. Kesselring	1.5	3	0.36	0	6%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.4	0	0.36	0	14%	0
NYI A. Romanov	1.4	4	0.29	0	6%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.4	1	0.46	1	16%	1
UTA J. Välimäki	1.4	0	0.35	0	4%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.4	0	0.35	0	6%	0
NYI K. MacLean	1.0	0	0.32	0	14%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.0	0	0.35	0	13%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	1.0	0	0.23	0	5%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.0	1	0.30	1	16%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	0.9	0	0.14	0	10%	0
UTA V. Kolyachonok	0.9	0	0.18	0	4%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.8	0	0.17	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.