UTA beat STL 4-2, with the chances close: 2.33 expected goals to 1.62. UTA outshot STL 31 to 15. D. Guenther led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). C. Ingram stopped 13 of 15.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
UTA 2.33 xGSTL 1.62 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Guenther | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:01 | 2:32 |
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 15:30 | 2:32 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:47 | 2:31 |
| J. McBain | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:56 | 0:04 |
| B. Hayton | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:50 | 2:09 |
| L. Cooley | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 12:37 | 1:24 |
| M. Maccelli | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 11:25 | 1:26 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:56 | 1:45 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:28 | 1:23 |
| N. Bjugstad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:19 | 0:00 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:54 | 0:04 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:19 | 0:04 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 28:00 | 2:15 |
| M. Kesselring | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 23:23 | 1:40 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 22:37 | 0:07 |
| O. Maatta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:37 | 0:00 |
| J. Välimäki | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 16:00 | 0:00 |
| M. Lamoureux | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 5:26 | 0:04 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Ingram | 15 | 13 | 2 | .867 | 60:00 | Win |
| K. Vejmelka | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:37 | 3:30 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:57 | 3:57 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:55 | 3:09 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:32 | 4:21 |
| D. Holloway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:51 | 2:27 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:24 | 0:11 |
| N. Walker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:05 | 0:11 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:21 | 0:11 |
| B. Saad | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:13 | 3:07 |
| A. Texier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:01 | 2:20 |
| O. Sundqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8:57 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8:38 | 0:00 |
| C. Parayko | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 26:43 | 3:10 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 24:11 | 3:09 |
| R. Suter | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 23:09 | 0:16 |
| S. Perunovich | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 17:22 | 2:51 |
| M. Kessel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:00 | 0:00 |
| P. Joseph | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 11:55 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Hofer | 30 | 27 | 3 | .900 | 58:09 | Loss |
| J. Binnington | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UTA 3.2, STL 3.5 | UTA 4, STL 2 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | UTA 28.4, STL 30.1 | UTA 31, STL 15 |
| Win chance | STL 55% | UTA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA C. Keller | 3.0 | 1 | 0.99 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.8 | 3 | 0.91 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| UTA D. Guenther | 2.7 | 3 | 0.72 | 2 | 28% | 1 |
| STL J. Faulk | 2.2 | 0 | 0.64 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 2.1 | 1 | 0.46 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| UTA L. Cooley | 2.1 | 3 | 0.60 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 2.0 | 4 | 0.69 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 2.0 | 1 | 0.83 | 2 | 28% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 2.0 | 1 | 0.78 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.9 | 1 | 0.43 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| UTA N. Bjugstad | 1.8 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.8 | 4 | 0.44 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.8 | 0 | 0.49 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.8 | 1 | 0.59 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| STL B. Saad | 1.6 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| UTA M. Maccelli | 1.6 | 3 | 0.61 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| STL D. Holloway | 1.5 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.4 | 3 | 0.32 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.4 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| STL A. Texier | 1.4 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| UTA M. Kesselring | 1.3 | 3 | 0.36 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 1.3 | 3 | 0.44 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| STL Z. Bolduc | 1.2 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| STL R. Suter | 1.2 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| STL P. Joseph | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.0 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL R. Faksa | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| UTA J. Välimäki | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| STL N. Walker | 0.9 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 0.9 | 1 | 0.35 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| UTA M. Lamoureux | 0.8 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.8 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| STL O. Sundqvist | 0.8 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| UTA O. Maatta | 0.7 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| STL S. Perunovich | 0.6 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| STL M. Kessel | 0.6 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.