STL beat UTA 6-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.56 expected goals to 1.68. P. Buchnevich led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). C. Fowler had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. J. Binnington stopped 22 of 23.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| STL | 4 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
- 1st 8:08STLB. Schenn0.24 xG
- 1st 11:17STLP. Buchnevich0.11 xG
- 1st 14:45STLJ. SnuggerudPP0.05 xG
- 1st 19:13STLZ. BolducPP0.10 xG
- 2nd 5:40UTAC. KellerPP0.05 xG
- 3rd 6:59STLJ. KyrouPP0.18 xG
- 3rd 17:24STLJ. Kyrou0.60 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
UTA 1.68 xGSTL 3.56 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Keller | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 17:33 | 4:26 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:28 | 4:03 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:25 | 1:47 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:42 | 0:02 |
| J. Doan | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:33 | 1:39 |
| D. Guenther | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:18 | 4:24 |
| L. Cooley | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 15:59 | 2:31 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:57 | 0:02 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:29 | 0:04 |
| B. Hayton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 13:02 | 3:23 |
| N. Bjugstad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:43 | 0:00 |
| K. Yamamoto | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:07 | 1:56 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 24:58 | 3:41 |
| S. Durzi | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 2 | 21:42 | 2:25 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 20:25 | 0:00 |
| O. Maatta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:02 | 0:07 |
| M. Kesselring | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:00 | 0:00 |
| R. Bortuzzo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:01 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Vejmelka | 29 | 23 | 6 | .793 | 60:00 | Loss |
| M. Villalta | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:14 | 4:55 |
| B. Schenn | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:11 | 3:17 |
| J. Snuggerud | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:37 | 4:13 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:03 | 3:11 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15:49 | 4:21 |
| R. Thomas | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:07 | 4:11 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:36 | 2:15 |
| O. Sundqvist | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:41 | 2:18 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 13:19 | 0:06 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:30 | 1:01 |
| N. Walker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13:14 | 0:06 |
| M. Joseph | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 9:58 | 0:00 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 18:01 | 3:59 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:37 | 3:25 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20:59 | 0:06 |
| R. Suter | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:09 | 0:00 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +3 | 0 | 17:53 | 0:06 |
| N. Leddy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:56 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Binnington | 23 | 22 | 1 | .957 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Hofer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UTA 2.9, STL 3.4 | UTA 1, STL 6 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | UTA 26.5, STL 27.0 | UTA 23, STL 29 |
| Win chance | STL 58% | STL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA D. Guenther | 2.9 | 1 | 0.73 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.8 | 4 | 0.83 | 2 | 33% | 2 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.5 | 2 | 0.84 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 2.1 | 2 | 0.83 | 3 | 29% | 1 |
| STL R. Thomas | 2.0 | 2 | 1.10 | 2 | 27% | 0 |
| UTA L. Cooley | 2.0 | 3 | 0.65 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 1.9 | 1 | 0.59 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 1.9 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| STL Z. Bolduc | 1.8 | 4 | 0.52 | 2 | 23% | 1 |
| STL J. Faulk | 1.8 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 1.8 | 2 | 0.65 | 2 | 23% | 1 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.8 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| UTA J. Doan | 1.6 | 4 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.6 | 3 | 0.53 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| UTA S. Durzi | 1.6 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| UTA M. Kesselring | 1.5 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.5 | 0 | 0.55 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.5 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| UTA N. Bjugstad | 1.5 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| STL J. Snuggerud | 1.3 | 4 | 0.40 | 2 | 15% | 1 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.3 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| STL C. Fowler | 1.3 | 4 | 0.50 | 2 | 9% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.2 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.2 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 1.2 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| UTA K. Yamamoto | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 1.1 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| STL N. Walker | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| STL M. Joseph | 1.1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL R. Faksa | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL O. Sundqvist | 1.0 | 1 | 0.32 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| STL N. Leddy | 0.8 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA O. Maatta | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.7 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| STL R. Suter | 0.7 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| UTA R. Bortuzzo | 0.4 | 1 | 0.07 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.