Game Recap: UTA 0, WPG 3, November 5, 2024

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

UTA0

FinalTue, Nov 5, 2024Every game that night

WPG3

WPG beat UTA 3-0, and the chances backed it up: 2.97 expected goals to 1.69. N. Niederreiter led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). D. Samberg had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. C. Hellebuyck stopped 21 of 21.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
UTA	0	0	0	0
WPG	0	1	2	3

2nd 17:57WPGG. VilardiPP0.11 xG
3rd 7:30WPGN. Niederreiter0.18 xG
3rd 17:01WPGN. NiederreiterEN0.80 xG

Team Stats

UTAWPG

21Shots on goal28

1.69Expected goals2.97

49Shot attempts45

165v5 shots on goal26

0/4Power play1/2

19Hits24

5Blocked shots18

4Penalty minutes8

23Giveaways18

3Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 1.69 xGWPG 2.97 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA18 on goal, 0 scored

WPG28 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Keller	RW	3	1	0	-2	0	24:27	5:29
L. Cooley	C	0	2	0	-2	0	19:55	2:12
N. Schmaltz	C	1	0	0	-1	2	18:06	5:00
B. Hayton	C	1	0	1	0	0	18:00	5:24
D. Guenther	RW	4	0	0	-2	2	17:41	5:18
M. Maccelli	LW	0	0	0	0	0	16:24	2:40
L. Crouse	LW	3	4	1	0	0	16:02	2:04
A. Kerfoot	C	1	1	0	-1	0	15:02	0:00
J. McBain	C	1	2	0	0	0	13:14	0:00
K. Stenlund	C	0	1	0	0	0	12:32	0:00
N. Bjugstad	C	2	1	0	0	0	12:22	1:55
M. Sergachev	D	2	1	0	-2	0	23:44	5:23
M. Kesselring	D	0	1	0	-1	0	18:35	2:18
I. Cole	D	0	4	1	0	0	18:02	0:00
O. Maatta	D	1	0	1	0	0	18:02	0:16
M. Lamoureux	D	0	1	0	0	0	14:58	0:00
J. Välimäki	D	2	0	1	0	0	13:03	0:01
R. Bortuzzo	D	0	0	0	0	0	6:06	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	27	25	2	.926	59:50	Loss
C. Ingram	0	0	0	–	0:00

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Lowry	C	0	2	2	1	2	2	+2	0	15:59	0:00
N. Niederreiter	RW	2	0	2	3	4	1	+2	0	13:49	0:31
M. Scheifele	C	0	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	19:16	2:55
G. Vilardi	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	18:35	2:54
M. Appleton	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	+2	0	14:09	0:00
K. Connor	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	2	20:04	2:55
N. Ehlers	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	14:53	2:48
V. Namestnikov	C	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	14:23	0:37
C. Perfetti	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:00	0:43
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	10:41	0:14
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	9:49	0:00
R. Kupari	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	8:55	0:00
D. Samberg	D	0	1	1	5	2	1	+1	0	24:19	0:12
J. Morrissey	D	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	22:23	3:15
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	22:33	0:00
N. Pionk	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	+1	0	21:56	0:26
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	14:32	0:00
C. Miller	D	0	0	0	3	3	1	0	2	11:44	0:05

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	21	21	0	1.000	60:00	Win
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamKevin Stenlund UTA Faces WPG, his team until Apr 20230 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	UTA 2.9, WPG 3.7	UTA 0, WPG 3
Total goals	6.6	3
Shots on goal	UTA 27.7, WPG 32.5	UTA 21, WPG 28
Win chance	WPG 63%	WPG won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.0	3	1.00	0	36%	0
UTA C. Keller	2.8	3	0.87	0	31%	0
WPG N. Ehlers	2.6	2	0.86	0	28%	0
UTA D. Guenther	2.6	4	0.66	0	26%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	2.3	0	0.96	1	17%	0
WPG G. Vilardi	2.1	4	0.80	1	32%	1
WPG M. Scheifele	2.1	1	1.00	1	33%	0
UTA B. Hayton	2.0	1	0.41	0	17%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	2.0	3	0.50	2	22%	2
UTA L. Cooley	1.9	0	0.53	0	19%	0
UTA N. Schmaltz	1.9	1	0.72	0	22%	0
UTA N. Bjugstad	1.8	2	0.40	0	18%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	1.8	1	0.60	0	20%	0
WPG N. Pionk	1.8	2	0.54	0	9%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	1.7	2	0.54	0	8%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.7	3	0.39	0	20%	0
UTA M. Maccelli	1.6	0	0.55	0	15%	0
WPG M. Appleton	1.4	1	0.42	1	14%	0
UTA M. Kesselring	1.3	0	0.33	0	7%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.3	1	0.46	2	16%	0
UTA A. Kerfoot	1.3	1	0.40	0	13%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.2	5	0.30	1	6%	0
WPG C. Miller	1.2	3	0.26	0	7%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.2	0	0.24	0	11%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.1	0	0.47	0	15%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.1	0	0.33	0	13%	0
WPG L. Stanley	1.1	1	0.22	0	5%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	1.0	0	0.38	0	6%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.0	0	0.16	0	11%	0
UTA J. Välimäki	1.0	2	0.22	0	3%	0
WPG R. Kupari	0.9	1	0.18	0	7%	0
UTA M. Lamoureux	0.9	0	0.25	0	6%	0
UTA J. McBain	0.8	1	0.31	0	11%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.8	0	0.19	0	3%	0
UTA O. Maatta	0.7	1	0.19	0	4%	0
UTA R. Bortuzzo	0.5	0	0.07	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.