Game Recap: UTA 2, WPG 5, January 24, 2025

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Game Recap

UTA2

FinalFri, Jan 24, 2025Every game that night

WPG5

WPG beat UTA 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.26 expected goals to 1.73. WPG outshot UTA 29 to 19. C. Perfetti scored three for WPG. C. Hellebuyck stopped 17 of 19.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
UTA	0	1	1	2
WPG	1	1	3	5

1st 17:52WPGC. PerfettiPP0.19 xG
2nd 1:13UTAN. SchmaltzPP0.08 xG
2nd 8:48WPGD. Gustafsson0.18 xG
3rd 1:19UTAB. Hayton0.08 xG
3rd 5:51WPGC. Perfetti0.58 xG
3rd 12:16WPGN. Ehlers0.15 xG
3rd 18:15WPGC. PerfettiEN0.95 xG

Team Stats

UTAWPG

19Shots on goal29

1.73Expected goals4.26

48Shot attempts74

155v5 shots on goal26

1/3Power play1/1

12Hits24

15Blocked shots12

2Penalty minutes6

24Giveaways19

4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 1.73 xGWPG 4.26 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA19 on goal, 2 scored

WPG29 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Keller	RW	0	2	2	1	0	1	-1	0	22:27	3:19
N. Schmaltz	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	21:54	3:31
B. Hayton	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	14:13	1:27
L. Cooley	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	22:57	3:43
J. Doan	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	16:27	3:59
A. Kerfoot	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	14:38	0:00
L. Crouse	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	13:28	1:03
N. Bjugstad	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	12:54	0:47
J. McBain	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	12:18	0:00
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	11:44	0:00
M. Maccelli	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	2	11:18	1:15
M. Carcone	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	10:25	0:00
J. Marino	D	0	1	1	1	2	1	-1	0	22:56	1:16
M. Kesselring	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	-2	0	22:35	3:30
O. Maatta	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	+1	0	20:51	0:00
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-3	0	18:28	0:00
J. Välimäki	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	15:40	0:00
N. DeSimone	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	15:08	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Ingram	28	24	4	.857	58:51	Loss
K. Vejmelka	0	0	0	–	0:00

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Perfetti	C	3	0	3	4	3	0	+2	0	15:17	0:48
N. Ehlers	LW	1	2	3	4	2	0	+3	0	14:56	0:48
V. Namestnikov	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	+3	0	17:18	0:00
G. Vilardi	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	-1	2	15:52	0:48
D. Gustafsson	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	+2	0	9:55	0:00
K. Connor	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	17:32	0:48
M. Appleton	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	16:51	0:00
M. Scheifele	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	16:02	0:00
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	15:31	0:00
R. Kupari	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:23	0:00
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	12:09	0:00
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	2	10:58	0:00
D. DeMelo	D	0	2	2	3	2	1	+1	2	22:17	0:00
N. Pionk	D	0	1	1	3	1	0	+2	0	19:25	0:00
J. Morrissey	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	22:26	0:48
D. Samberg	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	+2	0	21:17	0:00
H. Fleury	D	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	17:08	0:00
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	16:57	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	19	17	2	.895	60:00	Win
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamKevin Stenlund UTA Faces WPG, his team until Apr 20232 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	UTA 2.5, WPG 3.4	UTA 2, WPG 5
Total goals	5.9	7
Shots on goal	UTA 26.4, WPG 29.6	UTA 19, WPG 29
Win chance	WPG 64%	WPG won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.1	1	1.05	0	38%	0
WPG N. Ehlers	2.5	4	0.82	3	27%	1
UTA L. Cooley	2.2	3	0.67	0	23%	0
UTA C. Keller	2.2	1	0.74	2	25%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.1	1	0.96	0	35%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	2.0	1	0.78	0	13%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	2.0	1	0.49	0	23%	0
UTA N. Schmaltz	1.8	1	0.63	1	20%	1
WPG G. Vilardi	1.8	0	0.73	1	30%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	1.7	4	0.52	3	18%	3
UTA M. Kesselring	1.7	1	0.29	1	6%	0
UTA N. Bjugstad	1.6	1	0.30	0	15%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.6	1	0.41	0	17%	0
UTA J. Doan	1.6	1	0.41	0	16%	0
WPG N. Pionk	1.6	3	0.50	1	8%	0
UTA B. Hayton	1.5	2	0.36	1	14%	1
UTA L. Crouse	1.5	1	0.31	0	17%	0
WPG M. Appleton	1.4	2	0.37	0	14%	0
UTA M. Maccelli	1.4	1	0.42	0	13%	0
UTA M. Carcone	1.4	1	0.27	0	15%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.3	2	0.28	0	5%	0
WPG H. Fleury	1.2	3	0.18	0	3%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.1	0	0.47	1	17%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.1	0	0.20	0	11%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.0	2	0.18	0	11%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	1.0	3	0.31	2	5%	0
UTA A. Kerfoot	1.0	1	0.31	0	11%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.0	0	0.30	0	13%	0
WPG L. Stanley	1.0	1	0.22	0	4%	0
WPG R. Kupari	0.9	1	0.18	0	8%	0
UTA N. DeSimone	0.9	1	0.20	0	4%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.9	0	0.19	0	3%	0
UTA O. Maatta	0.9	1	0.21	0	4%	0
UTA J. Välimäki	0.9	0	0.18	0	3%	0
WPG D. Gustafsson	0.8	1	0.15	1	6%	1
UTA J. Marino	0.8	1	0.24	1	3%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.