VAN beat ANA 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.76 expected goals to 1.38. VAN outshot ANA 37 to 22. Q. Hughes led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). E. Pettersson had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. K. Lankinen stopped 21 of 22.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| ANA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 5:35ANAO. ZellwegerPP0.03 xG
- 1st 16:22VANB. BoeserPP0.08 xG
- 1st 17:20VANK. Sherwood0.14 xG
- 2nd 2:20VANE. Pettersson0.10 xG
- 3rd 12:08VANJ. DeBrusk0.11 xG
- 3rd 18:18VAND. Heinen0.40 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VAN 3.76 xGANA 1.38 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VAN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Boeser | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 17:37 | 5:54 |
| D. Heinen | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 12:45 | 2:43 |
| K. Sherwood | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 12:12 | 0:13 |
| C. Garland | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:57 | 5:49 |
| J. Miller | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:53 | 5:45 |
| E. Pettersson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:09 | 5:35 |
| J. DeBrusk | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:07 | 2:52 |
| T. Blueger | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 14:16 | 0:10 |
| P. Suter | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:05 | 0:00 |
| D. Sprong | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:22 | 2:56 |
| N. Hoglander | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:04 | 2:47 |
| A. Räty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:59 | 0:00 |
| Q. Hughes | D | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 20:54 | 5:55 |
| E. Brannstrom | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:03 | 0:06 |
| F. Hronek | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:52 | 2:58 |
| T. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:48 | 0:15 |
| C. Soucy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 17:06 | 0:12 |
| V. Desharnais | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:32 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Lankinen | 22 | 21 | 1 | .955 | 60:00 | Win |
| A. Silovs | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
ANA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Terry | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:40 | 4:54 |
| M. McTavish | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 14:03 | 4:25 |
| A. Killorn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:49 | 1:46 |
| L. Carlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:39 | 4:31 |
| F. Vatrano | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:15 | 4:40 |
| R. Fabbri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:04 | 0:00 |
| R. Strome | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:18 | 1:11 |
| T. Zegras | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 14:03 | 1:50 |
| I. Lundestrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 13:01 | 0:00 |
| B. McGinn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:39 | 0:00 |
| C. Gauthier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:31 | 1:28 |
| R. Johnston | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 8:34 | 0:00 |
| O. Zellweger | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:53 | 4:41 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 21:44 | 0:11 |
| P. Mintyukov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 20:52 | 0:56 |
| R. Gudas | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:57 | 0:10 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 2 | 17:11 | 0:52 |
| U. Vaakanainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:57 | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VAN 3.4, ANA 2.6 | VAN 5, ANA 1 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | VAN 29.1, ANA 25.6 | VAN 37, ANA 22 |
| Win chance | VAN 62% | VAN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA F. Vatrano | 2.7 | 1 | 0.60 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| VAN C. Garland | 2.7 | 3 | 0.76 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| VAN Q. Hughes | 2.6 | 3 | 1.07 | 3 | 14% | 0 |
| VAN J. Miller | 2.4 | 1 | 1.16 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| VAN B. Boeser | 2.4 | 2 | 0.89 | 2 | 33% | 1 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 2.3 | 6 | 0.98 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| ANA C. Gauthier | 2.2 | 3 | 0.42 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| ANA T. Terry | 2.2 | 1 | 0.77 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 2.1 | 2 | 0.62 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| VAN D. Sprong | 2.0 | 5 | 0.55 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| ANA T. Zegras | 2.0 | 1 | 0.61 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| ANA A. Killorn | 1.9 | 0 | 0.57 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| ANA L. Carlsson | 1.8 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| ANA M. McTavish | 1.7 | 2 | 0.58 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| VAN K. Sherwood | 1.7 | 1 | 0.44 | 2 | 17% | 1 |
| VAN F. Hronek | 1.7 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| ANA R. Strome | 1.6 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| ANA O. Zellweger | 1.6 | 5 | 0.33 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| VAN N. Hoglander | 1.5 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| VAN D. Heinen | 1.5 | 2 | 0.49 | 2 | 20% | 1 |
| ANA R. Fabbri | 1.5 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| VAN P. Suter | 1.5 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| ANA P. Mintyukov | 1.3 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VAN T. Myers | 1.3 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN T. Blueger | 1.2 | 1 | 0.39 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| ANA C. Fowler | 1.1 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| ANA R. Gudas | 1.0 | 3 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN C. Soucy | 1.0 | 3 | 0.26 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| ANA B. Dumoulin | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN E. Brannstrom | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| VAN A. Räty | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| ANA B. McGinn | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| ANA U. Vaakanainen | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| ANA I. Lundestrom | 0.8 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VAN V. Desharnais | 0.6 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| ANA R. Johnston | 0.5 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.