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Game Recap
VAN2
ANA5
ANA beat VAN 5-2, with the chances close: 2.63 expected goals to 1.96. R. Strome led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). L. Dostal stopped 22 of 24.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| ANA | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
- 1st 3:17VANT. Myers0.06 xG
- 1st 16:52VANP. Suter0.11 xG
- 2nd 5:27ANAF. Vatrano0.13 xG
- 2nd 9:09ANAC. Gauthier0.05 xG
- 2nd 18:41ANAR. Strome0.08 xG
- 3rd 15:46ANAJ. LaCombe0.15 xG
- 3rd 17:54ANAT. TerryEN0.59 xG
Team Stats
VANANA
24Shots on goal25
1.96Expected goals2.63
50Shot attempts54
205v5 shots on goal20
0/2Power play0/2
19Hits15
17Blocked shots13
6Penalty minutes6
14Giveaways16
1Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VAN 1.96 xGANA 2.63 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VAN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Boeser | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:37 | 1:58 |
| P. Suter | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:55 | 2:02 |
| C. Garland | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 16:27 | 1:57 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:43 | 0:00 |
| E. Pettersson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 17:04 | 1:43 |
| N. Hoglander | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:36 | 2:03 |
| F. Chytil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 16:25 | 1:59 |
| D. Joshua | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:45 | 1:56 |
| T. Blueger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:16 | 0:00 |
| J. DeBrusk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:15 | 1:44 |
| K. Sherwood | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 13:47 | 0:01 |
| T. Myers | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17:53 | 0:00 |
| Q. Hughes | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 22:58 | 3:46 |
| F. Hronek | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 22:25 | 0:37 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:39 | 0:00 |
| D. Forbort | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 14:30 | 0:14 |
| C. Soucy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:38 | 0:00 |
| E. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 8:13 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Silovs | 24 | 20 | 4 | .833 | 58:54 | Loss |
| K. Lankinen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
ANA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Terry | RW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:17 | 2:30 |
| R. Strome | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:29 | 2:34 |
| M. McTavish | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:23 | 2:29 |
| I. Lundestrom | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 14:06 | 0:00 |
| F. Vatrano | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:04 | 2:27 |
| C. Gauthier | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:16 | 1:25 |
| A. Killorn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:21 | 1:33 |
| L. Carlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:38 | 1:29 |
| J. Harkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:49 | 0:02 |
| B. Leason | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11:46 | 0:00 |
| S. Colangelo | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:57 | 1:03 |
| R. Johnston | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:18 | 0:05 |
| J. LaCombe | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 21:00 | 2:34 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 21:58 | 0:00 |
| J. Trouba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 20:54 | 0:23 |
| R. Gudas | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:19 | 0:00 |
| D. Helleson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 18:24 | 0:00 |
| P. Mintyukov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 14:01 | 1:26 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VAN 2.8, ANA 2.7 | VAN 2, ANA 5 |
| Total goals | 5.5 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | VAN 26.6, ANA 26.8 | VAN 24, ANA 25 |
| Win chance | VAN 51% | ANA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA F. Vatrano | 3.2 | 4 | 0.66 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| VAN F. Chytil | 2.7 | 2 | 0.58 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| VAN Q. Hughes | 2.6 | 4 | 0.95 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| ANA T. Terry | 2.4 | 2 | 0.82 | 3 | 28% | 1 |
| ANA M. McTavish | 2.3 | 1 | 0.64 | 2 | 24% | 0 |
| VAN C. Garland | 2.2 | 0 | 0.57 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| VAN B. Boeser | 2.2 | 2 | 0.72 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 2.1 | 1 | 0.59 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 2.0 | 0 | 0.78 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| ANA C. Gauthier | 2.0 | 4 | 0.41 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| ANA J. LaCombe | 1.9 | 1 | 0.48 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| VAN F. Hronek | 1.8 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| ANA R. Strome | 1.8 | 3 | 0.57 | 3 | 17% | 1 |
| VAN D. O'Connor | 1.8 | 2 | 0.35 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| VAN K. Sherwood | 1.8 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| VAN P. Suter | 1.8 | 1 | 0.44 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| ANA A. Killorn | 1.7 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| ANA S. Colangelo | 1.5 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| ANA J. Trouba | 1.4 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| ANA L. Carlsson | 1.4 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| VAN T. Myers | 1.3 | 2 | 0.30 | 2 | 4% | 1 |
| VAN N. Hoglander | 1.3 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| ANA R. Gudas | 1.3 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| ANA B. Leason | 1.3 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VAN M. Pettersson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN T. Blueger | 1.1 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| ANA D. Helleson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VAN D. Joshua | 1.1 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| ANA P. Mintyukov | 1.0 | 3 | 0.30 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| ANA J. Harkins | 1.0 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| ANA B. Dumoulin | 0.9 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN C. Soucy | 0.9 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 0.9 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| ANA I. Lundestrom | 0.8 | 0 | 0.22 | 2 | 11% | 0 |
| VAN D. Forbort | 0.8 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| ANA R. Johnston | 0.4 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.