Game Recap: VAN 4, ANA 3 (OT), April 12, 2026

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Game Recap

VAN4

Final/OTSun, Apr 12, 2026Every game that night

ANA3

VAN beat ANA 4-3 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.74 expected goals to 3.58. C. Gauthier led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). F. Hronek had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. N. Tolopilo stopped 24 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
VAN	2	0	1	1	4
ANA	1	0	2	0	3

1st 3:41ANAC. Gauthier0.37 xG
1st 10:49VANC. Douglas0.34 xG
1st 14:37VANJ. DeBruskPP0.08 xG
3rd 4:28VANB. BoeserSH0.25 xG
3rd 5:05ANAC. GauthierPP0.09 xG
3rd 6:56ANAL. Carlsson0.08 xG
OT 4:50VANM. RossiPP0.14 xG

Team Stats

VANANA

26Shots on goal27

2.74Expected goals3.58

42Shot attempts53

155v5 shots on goal23

2/3Power play1/2

16Hits26

10Blocked shots9

14Penalty minutes16

15Giveaways20

4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VAN 2.74 xGANA 3.58 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VAN25 on goal, 4 scored

ANA27 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Boeser	RW	1	1	2	3	1	0	-1	0	23:08	5:00
M. Rossi	C	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	0	18:49	5:00
J. DeBrusk	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	19:23	3:03
A. Räty	C	0	1	1	3	0	1	-1	0	10:05	0:00
C. Douglas	C	1	0	1	1	2	0	+1	5	6:19	0:00
E. Pettersson	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	21:07	4:38
L. Ohgren	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	18:47	0:22
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	16:27	0:00
L. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	15:57	0:00
N. Hoglander	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	15:55	0:00
T. Blueger	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7	14:43	0:00
T. Mueller	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	10:26	0:00
F. Hronek	D	0	1	1	5	0	0	-2	0	27:42	4:14
Z. Buium	D	0	1	1	3	0	3	-1	0	18:16	0:20
K. Kudryavtsev	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	14:17	0:00
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	23:36	0:00
T. Willander	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	22:03	0:26
E. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	0	5	1	+2	0	16:07	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
N. Tolopilo	27	24	3	.889	64:50	Win
K. Lankinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Kreider	LW	0	2	2	1	1	0	+2	2	15:33	0:48
C. Gauthier	LW	2	0	2	4	2	0	0	0	13:47	0:50
A. Killorn	LW	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	0	19:49	0:50
L. Carlsson	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	17:58	2:30
M. McTavish	C	0	1	1	2	3	0	+1	0	12:18	0:51
M. Granlund	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	23:13	2:30
B. Sennecke	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	2	21:02	2:32
T. Terry	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	18:51	2:29
R. Poehling	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	13:25	0:00
T. Washe	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	11:37	0:00
J. Viel	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	5	11:12	0:00
J. LaCombe	D	0	1	1	2	1	2	+2	0	26:06	0:52
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	28:32	0:00
J. Carlson	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	26:31	2:28
P. Mintyukov	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	20:52	0:00
T. Hinds	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	-1	2	11:36	0:00
R. Gudas	D	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	5	10:05	0:00
I. Moore	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	9:00	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Dostal	26	22	4	.846	64:50	OT loss
V. Husso	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VAN

Line 1J. DeBrusk14:54E. Pettersson14:27N. Hoglander15:55

Line 2L. Karlsson15:57D. O'Connor15:17M. Rossi13:09

Line 3B. Boeser15:35L. Ohgren15:19T. Blueger14:00

Line 4A. Räty9:22T. Mueller10:26C. Douglas6:19

Pair 1F. Hronek20:41Z. Buium17:47

Pair 2M. Pettersson21:49T. Willander18:21

Pair 3K. Kudryavtsev14:17E. Pettersson14:30

ANA

Line 1M. Granlund18:05B. Sennecke18:12A. Killorn16:54

Line 2T. Terry15:26L. Carlsson14:29C. Kreider14:10

Line 3M. McTavish11:27C. Gauthier11:35J. Viel11:12

Line 4T. Washe10:03R. Poehling10:03

Pair 1J. LaCombe24:05J. Trouba24:20

Pair 2J. Carlson21:31P. Mintyukov18:05

Pair 3T. Hinds11:36R. Gudas7:52

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VAN 2.9, ANA 4.0	VAN 4, ANA 3
Total goals	6.9	7
Shots on goal	VAN 25.1, ANA 33.4	VAN 26, ANA 27
Win chance	ANA 67%	VAN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
ANA C. Gauthier	3.0	4	0.83	2	31%	2
ANA T. Terry	2.7	1	1.03	0	30%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	2.5	3	1.00	1	31%	1
ANA B. Sennecke	2.5	3	0.87	0	26%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.4	2	0.54	1	26%	1
VAN B. Boeser	2.2	3	0.72	2	30%	1
ANA J. Carlson	2.2	2	0.93	0	16%	0
ANA M. Granlund	2.1	3	0.92	0	25%	0
ANA C. Kreider	2.0	1	0.79	2	34%	0
ANA J. Trouba	1.9	0	0.43	0	9%	0
VAN D. O'Connor	1.9	1	0.43	0	19%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.8	5	0.68	1	10%	0
ANA A. Killorn	1.8	3	0.59	1	24%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	1.8	1	0.74	0	25%	0
ANA M. McTavish	1.7	2	0.56	1	20%	0
ANA J. LaCombe	1.6	2	0.75	1	13%	0
VAN L. Ohgren	1.6	0	0.38	0	15%	0
VAN L. Karlsson	1.5	0	0.47	0	18%	0
ANA R. Poehling	1.5	0	0.62	0	20%	0
VAN M. Rossi	1.4	2	0.64	2	22%	1
VAN T. Blueger	1.4	0	0.40	0	13%	0
ANA J. Viel	1.4	2	0.26	0	11%	0
ANA P. Mintyukov	1.2	0	0.42	0	10%	0
ANA T. Washe	1.1	0	0.24	0	12%	0
VAN A. Räty	1.0	3	0.25	1	12%	0
VAN N. Hoglander	1.0	2	0.28	0	13%	0
VAN Z. Buium	0.9	3	0.32	1	6%	0
VAN T. Willander	0.9	1	0.35	0	8%	0
VAN M. Pettersson	0.9	0	0.32	0	5%	0
ANA I. Moore	0.9	1	0.21	0	6%	0
VAN C. Douglas	0.9	1	0.09	1	5%	1
ANA R. Gudas	0.8	0	0.20	0	3%	0
VAN T. Mueller	0.8	0	0.18	0	10%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	0.7	0	0.15	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.