Game Recap: VAN 2, BOS 0, November 26, 2024

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Game Recap

VAN2

FinalTue, Nov 26, 2024Every game that night

BOS0

VAN beat BOS 2-0 despite fewer good chances: 1.42 expected goals to 3.11. BOS outshot VAN 33 to 15. C. Garland led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). B. Marchand had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. K. Lankinen stopped 33 of 33.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
VAN	0	1	1	2
BOS	0	0	0	0

2nd 5:53VANJ. DeBruskPP0.18 xG
3rd 19:47VANC. GarlandEN0.64 xG

Team Stats

VANBOS

15Shots on goal33

1.42Expected goals3.11

31Shot attempts73

125v5 shots on goal26

1/2Power play0/3

30Hits29

26Blocked shots11

6Penalty minutes2

16Giveaways12

2Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VAN 1.42 xGBOS 3.11 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VAN15 on goal, 2 scored

BOS33 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Garland	RW	1	1	2	3	1	0	+1	0	19:22	2:57
J. DeBrusk	LW	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	0	16:44	2:56
P. Suter	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	16:37	0:45
E. Pettersson	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	18:01	2:58
T. Blueger	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	17:28	0:05
B. Boeser	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	17:11	2:57
D. Heinen	LW	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	16:53	0:15
K. Sherwood	LW	0	0	0	2	8	0	0	0	16:29	0:46
D. Joshua	C	0	0	0	0	9	0	+1	2	13:24	0:37
A. Räty	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	9:29	0:00
N. Hoglander	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	7:40	0:05
A. Bains	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	7:10	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	24:10	2:55
F. Hronek	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	22:25	0:46
N. Juulsen	D	0	0	0	0	4	4	+1	0	19:37	0:05
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	1	1	4	+1	0	19:25	0:05
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	18:49	0:00
E. Brannstrom	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	13:06	0:48

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Lankinen	33	33	0	1.000	60:00	Win
A. Silovs	0	0	0	–	0:00

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Pastrnak	RW	3	1	0	-1	0	21:08	3:53
E. Lindholm	C	3	1	0	-1	0	19:55	3:40
P. Zacha	C	2	1	0	-1	0	19:53	3:39
B. Marchand	LW	6	1	0	-1	2	19:23	3:38
C. Coyle	C	1	2	0	0	0	18:59	2:20
M. Geekie	C	2	5	0	0	0	17:38	2:05
J. Brazeau	RW	2	0	0	0	0	15:45	2:10
T. Frederic	C	2	1	1	0	0	14:01	2:13
M. Kastelic	C	1	2	0	0	0	9:36	0:09
M. McLaughlin	C	1	3	1	0	0	9:36	0:00
J. Beecher	C	1	0	0	0	0	9:34	0:00
C. Koepke	LW	1	1	0	0	0	8:05	0:00
C. McAvoy	D	2	3	3	-1	0	24:55	4:14
M. Lohrei	D	1	0	1	-1	0	19:47	1:46
A. Peeke	D	3	2	2	0	0	18:13	0:01
N. Zadorov	D	1	4	0	0	0	17:45	0:12
B. Carlo	D	0	2	1	0	0	17:02	0:00
P. Wotherspoon	D	1	0	2	0	0	16:20	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Swayman	14	13	1	.929	58:37	Loss
J. Korpisalo	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamElias Lindholm BOS Faces VAN, his team until May 20243 SOG
Old teamJake DeBrusk VAN Faces BOS, his team until May 20241 G, 3 SOG
Old teamNikita Zadorov BOS Faces VAN, his team until May 20241 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VAN 2.7, BOS 2.8	VAN 2, BOS 0
Total goals	5.5	2
Shots on goal	VAN 26.2, BOS 26.7	VAN 15, BOS 33
Win chance	BOS 52%	VAN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.7	3	1.11	0	40%	0
VAN C. Garland	2.6	3	0.69	2	23%	1
BOS B. Marchand	2.3	6	0.82	0	27%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	2.2	0	0.85	0	28%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.1	3	0.56	1	24%	1
VAN K. Sherwood	2.0	2	0.49	0	19%	0
VAN Q. Hughes	2.0	2	0.71	1	9%	0
BOS P. Zacha	1.9	2	0.69	0	21%	0
VAN B. Boeser	1.8	0	0.60	0	23%	0
BOS E. Lindholm	1.8	3	0.64	0	23%	0
BOS C. McAvoy	1.7	2	0.55	0	13%	0
VAN P. Suter	1.7	1	0.38	1	17%	0
BOS J. Brazeau	1.6	2	0.43	0	19%	0
BOS M. Geekie	1.5	2	0.43	0	16%	0
BOS T. Frederic	1.5	2	0.42	0	18%	0
BOS C. Coyle	1.4	1	0.52	0	19%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.4	1	0.43	0	7%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.4	1	0.32	0	12%	0
VAN D. Heinen	1.3	0	0.39	0	16%	0
VAN T. Blueger	1.2	0	0.35	0	10%	0
BOS M. McLaughlin	1.2	1	0.30	0	15%	0
BOS C. Koepke	1.1	1	0.29	0	12%	0
VAN N. Hoglander	1.1	1	0.28	0	14%	0
BOS M. Lohrei	1.1	1	0.37	0	9%	0
VAN T. Myers	1.1	0	0.24	0	3%	0
VAN D. Joshua	1.0	0	0.40	0	17%	0
VAN E. Brannstrom	1.0	0	0.24	0	3%	0
BOS B. Carlo	1.0	0	0.18	0	7%	0
BOS M. Kastelic	0.9	1	0.25	0	11%	0
VAN C. Soucy	0.9	1	0.18	0	6%	0
VAN A. Räty	0.9	0	0.19	0	10%	0
BOS A. Peeke	0.8	3	0.16	0	4%	0
BOS J. Beecher	0.8	1	0.24	0	12%	0
VAN A. Bains	0.7	1	0.13	0	9%	0
VAN N. Juulsen	0.6	0	0.10	0	2%	0
BOS P. Wotherspoon	0.6	1	0.14	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 26 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.