VAN beat BUF 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.46 expected goals to 2.65. BUF outshot VAN 34 to 22. C. Garland led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). C. Garland had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. K. Lankinen stopped 31 of 34.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| BUF | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
- 1st 17:33BUFB. Byram0.08 xG
- 2nd 18:12VANJ. DeBrusk0.34 xG
- 3rd 5:15VANC. GarlandPP0.34 xG
- 3rd 9:00VANP. Suter0.16 xG
- 3rd 13:18BUFD. Cozens0.07 xG
- 3rd 14:57BUFA. Tuch0.08 xG
- OT 3:59VANC. Garland0.48 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VAN 2.46 xGBUF 2.65 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VAN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Garland | RW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:37 | 5:14 |
| B. Boeser | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:02 | 5:49 |
| P. Suter | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:16 | 0:59 |
| E. Pettersson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 22:36 | 5:49 |
| J. DeBrusk | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:33 | 5:14 |
| T. Blueger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 14:26 | 0:00 |
| K. Sherwood | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 13:34 | 1:03 |
| D. Heinen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:46 | 0:00 |
| D. Joshua | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 11:07 | 1:03 |
| M. Sasson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:32 | 0:00 |
| A. Räty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:26 | 0:00 |
| N. Hoglander | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:28 | 0:00 |
| Q. Hughes | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 28:31 | 6:12 |
| T. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 22:45 | 1:55 |
| C. Soucy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:08 | 0:01 |
| E. Brannstrom | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 2 | 17:00 | 0:41 |
| V. Desharnais | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 15:51 | 0:00 |
| N. Juulsen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:12 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Lankinen | 34 | 31 | 3 | .912 | 63:06 | Win |
| A. Silovs | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 18:52 | 4:06 |
| D. Cozens | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 4 | 16:57 | 4:51 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 21:37 | 4:53 |
| T. Thompson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:14 | 5:48 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:14 | 5:51 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:46 | 5:38 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:37 | 4:07 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:08 | 0:01 |
| J.Kulich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:43 | 4:01 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:30 | 0:00 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:24 | 0:01 |
| S. Lafferty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4:02 | 0:01 |
| B. Byram | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 26:18 | 0:18 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 13:36 | 0:00 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27:01 | 6:03 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 22:54 | 4:01 |
| H. Jokiharju | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:01 | 0:00 |
| J. Bryson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:30 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Luukkonen | 22 | 18 | 4 | .818 | 63:40 | OT loss |
| J. Reimer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VAN 3.0, BUF 3.0 | VAN 4, BUF 3 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | VAN 26.0, BUF 28.7 | VAN 22, BUF 34 |
| Win chance | BUF 51% | VAN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF T. Thompson | 2.9 | 6 | 0.86 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.6 | 4 | 0.75 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| VAN C. Garland | 2.6 | 6 | 0.76 | 3 | 25% | 2 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 2.5 | 4 | 0.69 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.5 | 3 | 0.92 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| BUF D. Cozens | 2.5 | 2 | 0.63 | 2 | 23% | 1 |
| VAN Q. Hughes | 2.1 | 2 | 0.82 | 2 | 12% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 2.1 | 1 | 0.89 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 2.1 | 1 | 0.61 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| VAN K. Sherwood | 2.0 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 2.0 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| BUF J.Kulich | 1.9 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VAN B. Boeser | 1.9 | 2 | 0.67 | 2 | 27% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.7 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VAN P. Suter | 1.7 | 4 | 0.43 | 2 | 19% | 1 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.5 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.3 | 2 | 0.42 | 2 | 16% | 0 |
| VAN D. Heinen | 1.3 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.2 | 3 | 0.51 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| VAN T. Blueger | 1.2 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.2 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| BUF H. Jokiharju | 1.1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN N. Hoglander | 1.0 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VAN D. Joshua | 1.0 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| VAN T. Myers | 1.0 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN E. Brannstrom | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 0.9 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VAN C. Soucy | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VAN A. Räty | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BUF C. Clifton | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF S. Lafferty | 0.8 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VAN N. Juulsen | 0.7 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VAN V. Desharnais | 0.5 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| BUF J. Bryson | 0.4 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.