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Game Recap
VAN0
CAR2
CAR beat VAN 2-0, and the chances backed it up: 2.72 expected goals to 1.44. J. Staal led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). D. Tokarski stopped 14 of 14.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| CAR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 14:41CARJ. Staal0.09 xG
- 2nd 1:37CARA. Svechnikov0.15 xG
Team Stats
VANCAR
14Shots on goal20
1.44Expected goals2.72
64Shot attempts51
105v5 shots on goal14
0/3Power play0/3
25Hits10
13Blocked shots27
8Penalty minutes8
12Giveaways18
6Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VAN 1.44 xGCAR 2.72 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VAN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Pettersson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:27 | 3:40 |
| C. Garland | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:19 | 3:50 |
| B. Boeser | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:05 | 3:47 |
| J. Miller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 17:36 | 3:44 |
| J. DeBrusk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:00 | 2:20 |
| K. Sherwood | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:53 | 2:11 |
| P. Suter | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:32 | 2:06 |
| J. Lekkerimäki | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:11 | 2:13 |
| D. Heinen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:53 | 0:02 |
| T. Blueger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:12 | 0:02 |
| P. Di Giuseppe | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:11 | 0:02 |
| M. Sasson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:24 | 0:00 |
| Q. Hughes | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 28:57 | 5:24 |
| T. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:47 | 0:38 |
| C. Soucy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:47 | 0:00 |
| N. Juulsen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:43 | 0:00 |
| V. Desharnais | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:17 | 0:00 |
| D. Forbort | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 13:40 | 0:01 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Demko | 20 | 18 | 2 | .900 | 58:01 | Loss |
| K. Lankinen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Staal | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 17:55 | 0:00 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:06 | 2:39 |
| S. Jarvis | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:17 | 2:38 |
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:33 | 2:39 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 17:39 | 0:00 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:57 | 1:22 |
| M. Necas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13:26 | 2:40 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:24 | 1:26 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 11:25 | 0:00 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:59 | 1:26 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:20 | 1:25 |
| J. Jaaska | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:52 | 0:05 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 19:52 | 0:00 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 22:17 | 2:10 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 22:06 | 0:00 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 19:39 | 1:55 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 19:30 | 0:00 |
| T. Smith | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:43 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Tokarski | 14 | 14 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| P. Kochetkov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VAN 2.8, CAR 3.2 | VAN 0, CAR 2 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 2 |
| Shots on goal | VAN 23.3, CAR 30.6 | VAN 14, CAR 20 |
| Win chance | CAR 57% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR S. Aho | 2.5 | 1 | 0.98 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| VAN C. Garland | 2.3 | 0 | 0.68 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.3 | 3 | 0.72 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| CAR M. Necas | 2.3 | 1 | 0.74 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.3 | 4 | 0.77 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| VAN Q. Hughes | 2.1 | 1 | 0.88 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR B. Burns | 2.0 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VAN B. Boeser | 1.9 | 2 | 0.73 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| VAN J. Miller | 1.9 | 3 | 0.92 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 1.9 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 1.8 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 1.8 | 0 | 0.78 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| VAN K. Sherwood | 1.8 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CAR D. Orlov | 1.7 | 0 | 0.43 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| VAN P. Suter | 1.6 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.5 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.5 | 1 | 0.41 | 2 | 15% | 1 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.5 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| VAN J. Lekkerimäki | 1.4 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.4 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.4 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.4 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR J. Drury | 1.4 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 1.3 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR T. Smith | 1.2 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VAN T. Blueger | 1.2 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VAN D. Heinen | 1.1 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VAN M. Sasson | 1.1 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.1 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VAN T. Myers | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN P. Giuseppe | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VAN C. Soucy | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN N. Juulsen | 0.6 | 0 | 0.09 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| VAN D. Forbort | 0.6 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN V. Desharnais | 0.5 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.6 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.