Game Recap: VAN 3, CAR 4 (OT), November 14, 2025

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Game Recap

VAN3

Final/OTFri, Nov 14, 2025Every game that night

CAR4

CAR beat VAN 4-3 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 4.02 expected goals to 1.40. CAR outshot VAN 38 to 17. A. Svechnikov led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). S. Gostisbehere had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. P. Kochetkov stopped 14 of 17.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
VAN	2	1	0	0	3
CAR	2	0	1	1	4

1st 2:45VANM. Sasson0.21 xG
1st 4:20CARA. Svechnikov0.16 xG
1st 5:14CARA. SvechnikovPP0.13 xG
1st 9:14VANE. PetterssonSH0.15 xG
2nd 3:13VANC. GarlandPP0.14 xG
3rd 6:26CART. Hall0.17 xG
OT 4:29CARS. Aho0.12 xG

Team Stats

VANCAR

17Shots on goal38

1.40Expected goals4.02

29Shot attempts93

125v5 shots on goal33

1/2Power play1/2

25Hits21

29Blocked shots4

4Penalty minutes4

17Giveaways16

5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VAN 1.40 xGCAR 4.02 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VAN16 on goal, 3 scored

CAR37 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Pettersson	C	1	1	2	1	2	3	-1	0	20:04	1:18
C. Garland	RW	1	0	1	1	1	1	-2	0	19:03	1:15
B. Boeser	RW	0	1	1	1	1	2	-1	0	18:49	2:07
M. Sasson	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	12:07	0:09
M. MacEachern	LW	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	9:43	0:00
L. Karlsson	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	7:36	0:00
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	20:55	2:04
E. Kane	LW	0	0	0	4	3	0	-1	2	19:17	0:26
K. Sherwood	LW	0	0	0	0	7	2	-1	0	18:00	1:12
A. Räty	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	17:09	1:06
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	14:40	0:00
L. Reichel	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	12:18	0:00
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	+1	2	30:23	0:23
F. Hronek	D	0	0	0	0	3	4	0	0	24:26	1:30
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	2	2	5	-1	0	22:04	0:01
E. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	21:05	0:00
T. Willander	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	16:21	0:59
P. Joseph	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	7:22	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Lankinen	38	34	4	.895	64:29	OT loss
J. Patera	0	0	0	–	0:00

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Svechnikov	RW	2	1	3	2	2	0	+2	0	19:10	1:24
S. Aho	C	1	1	2	4	1	0	+3	0	24:00	1:22
N. Ehlers	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	17:30	1:25
T. Hall	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	-1	0	17:20	0:42
S. Jarvis	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	2:15	0:00
J. Blake	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	22:47	1:25
L. Stankoven	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	17:32	0:41
J. Staal	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	16:40	0:00
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	15:50	0:00
E. Robinson	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	14:20	0:00
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:05	0:00
J. Kotkaniemi	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	7:19	0:40
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	3	3	6	1	0	+1	0	26:22	1:23
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	4	1	0	-1	2	25:32	0:43
K. Miller	D	0	0	0	3	6	2	0	0	22:30	0:40
J. Nystrom	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	19:07	0:00
M. Reilly	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	16:29	0:00
A. Nikishin	D	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	16:09	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Kochetkov	17	14	3	.824	64:29	Win
B. Bussi	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VAN

Line 1C. Garland16:20E. Pettersson16:55E. Kane17:56

Line 2J. DeBrusk16:00A. Räty14:54D. O'Connor14:02

Line 3K. Sherwood14:27B. Boeser14:26L. Reichel12:18

Line 4M. MacEachern9:43L. Karlsson7:36M. Sasson11:15

Pair 1E. Pettersson20:19F. Hronek22:04

Pair 2T. Myers19:42M. Pettersson27:32

Pair 3P. Joseph7:22T. Willander14:14

CAR

Line 1S. Aho18:37A. Svechnikov16:36T. Hall16:38

Line 2L. Stankoven16:51J. Blake20:21N. Ehlers15:32

Line 3J. Staal14:40J. Martinook14:36W. Carrier10:05

Line 4E. Robinson13:06J. Kotkaniemi6:39

Pair 1S. Gostisbehere21:38S. Walker20:54

Pair 2K. Miller19:22J. Nystrom17:45

Pair 3M. Reilly15:21A. Nikishin16:09

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayAatu Räty VAN Turns 23 that day2 SOG
BirthdayTaylor Hall CAR Turns 34 that day1 G, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VAN 2.8, CAR 3.5	VAN 3, CAR 4
Total goals	6.3	7
Shots on goal	VAN 23.6, CAR 31.8	VAN 17, CAR 38
Win chance	CAR 61%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VAN E. Kane	2.7	4	0.57	0	27%	0
CAR S. Jarvis	2.6	1	0.90	1	31%	0
CAR N. Ehlers	2.6	2	0.80	1	26%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.4	4	0.99	2	33%	1
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.4	2	0.75	3	26%	2
VAN C. Garland	2.4	1	0.69	1	24%	1
CAR S. Walker	2.3	4	0.39	0	13%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.2	1	0.53	0	26%	0
CAR J. Blake	2.0	1	0.54	0	20%	0
VAN K. Sherwood	1.9	0	0.57	0	24%	0
VAN B. Boeser	1.9	1	0.65	1	27%	0
CAR L. Stankoven	1.9	2	0.49	0	18%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	1.9	1	0.83	2	28%	1
CAR T. Hall	1.8	2	0.58	1	21%	1
CAR A. Nikishin	1.7	3	0.47	0	9%	0
CAR M. Reilly	1.7	1	0.28	0	6%	0
CAR K. Miller	1.5	3	0.47	0	11%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.4	2	0.47	0	16%	0
CAR J. Nystrom	1.3	1	0.17	0	5%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.3	1	0.41	0	15%	0
VAN D. O'Connor	1.3	0	0.31	0	13%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.2	6	0.53	3	10%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.2	2	0.32	0	13%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.2	0	0.26	0	12%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.1	0	0.42	0	6%	0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.1	1	0.31	0	11%	0
VAN L. Karlsson	1.1	2	0.23	1	9%	0
VAN A. Räty	1.0	2	0.33	0	14%	0
VAN L. Reichel	1.0	0	0.28	0	11%	0
VAN T. Myers	1.0	2	0.24	0	4%	0
VAN M. Sasson	0.9	1	0.22	1	12%	1
VAN M. MacEachern	0.8	0	0.18	1	6%	0
VAN M. Pettersson	0.7	0	0.26	0	3%	0
VAN P. Joseph	0.7	0	0.12	0	3%	0
VAN T. Willander	0.6	1	0.18	0	3%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	0.5	1	0.10	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.