Game Recap: VAN 1, CBJ 4, January 15, 2026

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Game Recap

VAN1

FinalThu, Jan 15, 2026Every game that night

CBJ4

CBJ beat VAN 4-1, with the chances close: 3.82 expected goals to 3.18. K. Marchenko led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). C. Coyle had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. E. Merzlikins stopped 30 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
VAN	0	1	0	1
CBJ	1	2	1	4

1st 17:25CBJC. CoylePP0.09 xG
2nd 5:49CBJK. Marchenko0.13 xG
2nd 10:14CBJZ. WerenskiPP0.08 xG
2nd 14:09VANB. BoeserPP0.17 xG
3rd 10:13CBJK. Johnson0.15 xG

Team Stats

VANCBJ

31Shots on goal36

3.18Expected goals3.82

59Shot attempts78

265v5 shots on goal28

1/2Power play2/2

11Hits19

18Blocked shots15

4Penalty minutes4

17Giveaways9

6Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VAN 3.18 xGCBJ 3.82 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VAN31 on goal, 1 scored

CBJ35 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Boeser	RW	1	0	1	4	2	0	0	0	19:45	2:08
E. Pettersson	C	0	1	1	1	0	3	0	0	16:53	2:09
C. Garland	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	17:19	1:07
L. Ohgren	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	17:17	1:09
M. Sasson	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	15:32	0:00
D. Kampf	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	15:28	0:00
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:02	2:11
L. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	0	14:37	2:09
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	14:27	0:00
E. Kane	LW	0	0	0	5	1	0	-2	0	12:31	1:10
A. Räty	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	0	10:04	0:00
A. Bains	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	9:56	0:00
Z. Buium	D	0	1	1	0	2	2	0	0	22:46	2:17
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	21:06	0:00
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	-2	2	20:59	0:08
F. Hronek	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	20:48	1:01
V. Mancini	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	0	0	16:46	0:00
T. Willander	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	15:36	1:01

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Lankinen	36	32	4	.889	60:00	Loss
N. Tolopilo	0	0	0	–	0:00

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Johnson	C	1	1	2	2	0	1	+1	0	17:36	3:08
K. Marchenko	RW	1	1	2	3	0	1	+1	2	17:03	3:08
C. Coyle	C	1	0	1	8	0	1	0	2	18:10	3:08
A. Fantilli	C	0	1	1	4	3	2	+1	0	18:05	3:08
B. Jenner	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	16:56	0:00
S. Monahan	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	16:28	0:00
M. Olivier	RW	0	0	0	3	5	0	0	0	15:26	0:00
C. Sillinger	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	15:06	0:00
D. Voronkov	LW	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	13:22	0:00
B. Gaunce	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:06	0:00
M. Pyyhtia	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:55	0:00
D. Heinen	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:49	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	1	0	1	5	0	1	+1	0	25:32	3:08
D. Severson	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	0	21:10	0:00
I. Provorov	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	20:46	0:00
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	2	1	3	+1	0	20:08	0:00
E. Gudbranson	D	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	16:19	0:00
J. Christiansen	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	12:51	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Merzlikins	31	30	1	.968	59:54	Win
J. Greaves	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VAN

Line 1J. DeBrusk12:51L. Karlsson12:28E. Pettersson13:58

Line 2B. Boeser17:01L. Ohgren15:49M. Sasson15:26

Line 3C. Garland14:42D. Kampf14:39D. O'Connor12:26

Line 4A. Räty9:38A. Bains9:56E. Kane11:21

Pair 1T. Myers18:15Z. Buium20:29

Pair 2M. Pettersson19:09F. Hronek18:58

Pair 3V. Mancini16:22T. Willander13:52

CBJ

Line 1B. Jenner15:44S. Monahan15:17K. Johnson14:28

Line 2A. Fantilli14:51K. Marchenko13:49C. Sillinger14:17

Line 3C. Coyle13:38M. Olivier14:38D. Voronkov13:16

Line 4M. Pyyhtia10:55B. Gaunce9:48D. Heinen9:49

Pair 1D. Severson19:42I. Provorov19:31

Pair 2Z. Werenski20:28D. Fabbro18:50

Pair 3E. Gudbranson15:28J. Christiansen12:51

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamConor Garland CBJ First game against VAN since he left (his team until Mar 2026)0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VAN 3.2, CBJ 3.6	VAN 1, CBJ 4
Total goals	6.8	5
Shots on goal	VAN 27.9, CBJ 31.4	VAN 31, CBJ 36
Win chance	CBJ 56%	CBJ won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.4	5	1.06	1	25%	1
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.9	3	0.89	2	31%	1
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.8	4	0.80	1	29%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.5	1	0.57	0	26%	0
CBJ B. Jenner	2.4	0	0.66	1	26%	0
VAN E. Kane	2.3	5	0.53	0	24%	0
VAN B. Boeser	2.2	4	0.71	1	29%	1
VAN C. Garland	2.1	0	0.60	0	21%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	2.0	1	0.82	1	28%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	1.8	1	0.57	0	23%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.8	2	0.45	0	11%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	1.7	0	0.68	0	20%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.7	2	0.60	2	20%	1
CBJ C. Coyle	1.6	8	0.65	1	21%	1
VAN L. Karlsson	1.6	5	0.50	0	19%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.6	2	0.40	0	13%	0
VAN L. Ohgren	1.6	2	0.24	0	12%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.5	1	0.54	0	9%	0
VAN D. O'Connor	1.4	2	0.35	0	15%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.4	0	0.44	1	11%	0
VAN M. Sasson	1.4	0	0.33	0	18%	0
CBJ B. Gaunce	1.3	0	0.26	0	12%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.3	3	0.40	0	15%	0
VAN T. Myers	1.2	3	0.26	0	5%	0
VAN A. Räty	1.2	0	0.35	0	14%	0
VAN T. Willander	1.1	2	0.41	0	8%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.1	2	0.26	0	8%	0
VAN D. Kampf	1.0	1	0.27	0	11%	0
VAN M. Pettersson	1.0	1	0.33	0	5%	0
VAN Z. Buium	1.0	0	0.37	1	8%	0
CBJ E. Gudbranson	1.0	2	0.24	0	5%	0
CBJ D. Heinen	0.9	0	0.29	0	11%	0
CBJ M. Pyyhtia	0.8	1	0.17	0	8%	0
VAN V. Mancini	0.7	1	0.18	0	5%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.6	1	0.10	0	2%	0
VAN A. Bains	0.6	2	0.14	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.