Game Recap: VAN 3, CGY 7, March 28, 2026

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Game Recap

VAN3

FinalSat, Mar 28, 2026Every game that night

CGY7

CGY beat VAN 7-3 despite fewer good chances: 2.27 expected goals to 2.96. VAN outshot CGY 34 to 23. M. Frost led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). T. Blueger had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. D. Wolf stopped 31 of 34.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
VAN	1	1	1	3
CGY	2	4	1	7

1st 3:04CGYM. Coronato0.03 xG
1st 4:59CGYJ. Farabee0.05 xG
1st 18:53VANL. Ohgren0.24 xG
2nd 1:32CGYR. Strome0.06 xG
2nd 4:36CGYO. Määttä0.58 xG
2nd 4:47CGYM. Frost0.05 xG
2nd 13:36VANJ. DeBruskPP0.12 xG
2nd 19:23CGYZ. ParekhPP0.08 xG
3rd 12:40VANN. Hoglander0.10 xG
3rd 19:52CGYA. KlapkaPP0.16 xG

Team Stats

VANCGY

34Shots on goal23

2.96Expected goals2.27

60Shot attempts42

275v5 shots on goal18

1/4Power play2/3

32Hits18

12Blocked shots11

11Penalty minutes13

19Giveaways21

8Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VAN 2.96 xGCGY 2.27 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VAN33 on goal, 3 scored

CGY23 on goal, 7 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Pettersson	C	0	2	2	3	1	1	0	0	19:17	4:03
B. Boeser	RW	0	1	1	4	0	0	-1	0	22:34	4:01
L. Karlsson	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	18:05	1:58
L. Ohgren	LW	1	0	1	4	0	1	-1	0	17:51	0:05
J. DeBrusk	LW	1	0	1	3	1	0	-2	0	13:24	4:01
N. Hoglander	LW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	7:42	0:27
M. Rossi	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	2	18:27	4:09
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	0	17:09	2:01
T. Blueger	C	0	0	0	4	2	0	-2	0	14:44	0:25
E. Kane	LW	0	0	0	4	3	0	-2	2	13:19	2:13
A. Räty	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	11:50	0:00
C. Douglas	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	5	6:30	0:00
Z. Buium	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	-1	0	23:57	3:37
V. Mancini	D	0	1	1	3	2	2	+1	0	16:00	0:13
F. Hronek	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	-3	0	26:13	4:02
T. Willander	D	0	0	0	2	5	2	-1	0	18:10	2:11
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-2	2	17:57	0:00
P. Joseph	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	15:02	0:05

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
N. Tolopilo	11	7	4	.636	24:36	Loss
K. Lankinen	12	9	3	.750	32:45

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Coronato	RW	1	2	3	1	0	0	+2	0	15:42	2:20
M. Frost	C	1	2	3	1	0	0	+2	0	14:05	2:18
R. Strome	C	1	1	2	3	0	0	+2	0	14:05	0:41
M. Backlund	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	18:41	0:41
J. Farabee	LW	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	17:36	0:00
M. Gridin	RW	0	1	1	1	0	2	+2	0	16:51	2:18
Y. Sharangovich	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+2	2	14:51	1:16
B. Othmann	LW	0	1	1	1	2	0	-1	0	10:12	0:40
A. Klapka	RW	1	0	1	3	1	0	-1	5	8:51	0:10
B. Coleman	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	+2	0	19:29	3:03
V. Olofsson	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	+2	0	13:43	0:39
T. Gross	C	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	0	11:35	0:00
O. Määttä	D	1	1	2	2	0	2	+2	0	20:55	0:27
H. Brzustewicz	D	0	2	2	0	2	0	+2	0	18:25	1:08
Z. Parekh	D	1	1	2	2	1	1	0	2	16:29	2:54
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	1	1	0	3	1	0	0	24:10	0:00
K. Bahl	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	22:12	0:05
B. Pachal	D	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	14:57	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Wolf	34	31	3	.912	60:00	Win
D. Cooley	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VAN

Line 1L. Ohgren16:00L. Karlsson14:59E. Pettersson13:41

Line 2B. Boeser16:31D. O'Connor14:05M. Rossi13:04

Line 3E. Kane11:06J. DeBrusk9:14T. Blueger11:16

Line 4C. Douglas6:10N. Hoglander7:15A. Räty9:47

Pair 1F. Hronek18:18Z. Buium18:57

Pair 2M. Pettersson15:39T. Willander14:37

Pair 3V. Mancini14:48P. Joseph13:03

CGY

Line 1M. Coronato13:17M. Gridin14:33M. Frost11:01

Line 2V. Olofsson12:55R. Strome12:51Y. Sharangovich11:16

Line 3M. Backlund13:37B. Coleman12:09J. Farabee12:50

Line 4B. Othmann9:32T. Gross10:22A. Klapka8:41

Pair 1Z. Whitecloud17:18K. Bahl17:57

Pair 2O. Määttä17:01H. Brzustewicz17:17

Pair 3Z. Parekh13:33B. Pachal12:20

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VAN 2.7, CGY 3.1	VAN 3, CGY 7
Total goals	5.9	10
Shots on goal	VAN 25.8, CGY 29.8	VAN 34, CGY 23
Win chance	CGY 56%	CGY won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CGY B. Coleman	2.7	2	0.69	0	27%	0
CGY M. Backlund	2.6	0	0.64	1	22%	0
CGY M. Coronato	2.5	1	0.62	3	23%	1
VAN E. Kane	2.2	4	0.46	0	22%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.2	3	0.48	1	23%	1
CGY M. Gridin	2.1	1	0.60	1	19%	0
CGY V. Olofsson	2.1	1	0.56	0	24%	0
VAN B. Boeser	2.0	4	0.61	1	26%	0
CGY Y. Sharangovich	2.0	1	0.53	1	24%	0
VAN D. O'Connor	2.0	2	0.43	0	19%	0
CGY M. Frost	1.8	1	0.57	3	20%	1
CGY J. Farabee	1.8	2	0.51	1	20%	1
VAN L. Karlsson	1.7	1	0.48	1	18%	0
VAN L. Ohgren	1.6	4	0.31	1	14%	1
VAN F. Hronek	1.6	1	0.51	0	8%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	1.6	3	0.66	2	23%	0
VAN M. Rossi	1.5	0	0.59	0	20%	0
CGY R. Strome	1.5	3	0.55	2	16%	1
VAN T. Blueger	1.5	4	0.39	0	13%	0
CGY H. Brzustewicz	1.3	0	0.24	2	7%	0
CGY Z. Parekh	1.2	2	0.29	2	8%	1
CGY Z. Whitecloud	1.1	0	0.29	1	7%	0
CGY O. Määttä	1.1	2	0.36	2	6%	1
VAN N. Hoglander	1.1	1	0.29	1	13%	1
CGY A. Klapka	1.0	3	0.28	1	11%	1
VAN A. Räty	1.0	1	0.25	0	12%	0
CGY B. Othmann	1.0	1	0.15	1	8%	0
VAN Z. Buium	1.0	1	0.27	1	6%	0
VAN T. Willander	1.0	2	0.32	0	7%	0
CGY K. Bahl	1.0	0	0.30	0	6%	0
CGY B. Pachal	0.9	1	0.21	0	4%	0
VAN M. Pettersson	0.9	0	0.25	0	3%	0
VAN C. Douglas	0.8	0	0.10	0	5%	0
VAN P. Joseph	0.8	0	0.14	0	3%	0
VAN V. Mancini	0.6	3	0.13	1	3%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.