Game Recap: VAN 6, CHI 3, October 22, 2024

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Game Recap

VAN6

FinalTue, Oct 22, 2024Every game that night

CHI3

VAN beat CHI 6-3, with the chances close: 2.94 expected goals to 3.28. J. Miller led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). C. Bedard had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.8. K. Lankinen stopped 31 of 34.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
VAN	4	0	2	6
CHI	2	0	1	3

1st 0:21VAND. Heinen0.25 xG
1st 6:01VANJ. MillerPP0.05 xG
1st 9:25CHIR. Donato0.18 xG
1st 10:46VAND. Heinen0.10 xG
1st 13:29CHIT. Hall0.18 xG
1st 15:17VANC. Garland0.37 xG
3rd 10:29VANB. BoeserPP0.11 xG
3rd 10:58VANP. Suter0.22 xG
3rd 14:04CHIT. BertuzziPP0.25 xG

Team Stats

VANCHI

30Shots on goal34

2.94Expected goals3.28

55Shot attempts57

255v5 shots on goal26

2/3Power play1/5

25Hits16

12Blocked shots14

10Penalty minutes4

12Giveaways19

9Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VAN 2.94 xGCHI 3.28 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VAN29 on goal, 6 scored

CHI33 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Miller	C	1	2	3	2	0	0	0	0	16:20	2:40
C. Garland	RW	1	1	2	2	0	2	+1	0	16:07	2:36
K. Sherwood	LW	0	2	2	3	12	0	+2	0	15:12	0:00
D. Heinen	LW	2	0	2	3	0	0	+2	0	14:35	0:57
E. Pettersson	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	18:25	2:18
T. Blueger	C	0	1	1	4	0	0	+2	2	16:36	0:00
P. Suter	C	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	14:51	0:00
B. Boeser	RW	1	0	1	1	1	0	-1	0	14:24	2:38
N. Aman	C	0	1	1	0	3	0	0	0	10:41	0:00
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	13:09	1:05
N. Hoglander	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	12:55	0:59
A. Bains	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:25	0:55
Q. Hughes	D	0	2	2	5	0	1	+3	0	19:49	2:30
F. Hronek	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	+2	2	21:09	1:09
E. Brannstrom	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	+1	2	14:02	0:00
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	22:34	0:08
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	2	20:21	0:00
V. Desharnais	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	+1	0	19:00	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Lankinen	34	31	3	.912	60:00	Win
A. Silovs	0	0	0	–	0:00

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Foligno	LW	0	1	1	2	3	0	-2	0	21:01	5:26
T. Bertuzzi	LW	1	0	1	5	1	2	+1	0	14:51	5:40
R. Donato	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	14:49	0:00
T. Hall	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	13:43	3:00
J. Dickinson	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	2	13:41	0:00
C. Bedard	C	0	0	0	6	1	2	-3	0	21:55	5:40
T. Teravainen	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-3	0	20:21	5:41
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:37	0:00
P. Maroon	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	0	14:03	2:45
C. Smith	C	0	0	0	3	1	2	-1	0	13:35	2:46
L. Reichel	LW	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	13:21	2:01
A. Athanasiou	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	9:47	0:45
A. Vlasic	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	-1	0	23:34	4:47
S. Jones	D	0	1	1	0	1	2	-2	0	22:36	3:38
C. Murphy	D	0	1	1	3	2	0	+1	2	18:40	0:00
W. Kaiser	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	16:38	0:00
N. Allan	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	15:13	0:01
T. Brodie	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	14:17	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Mrazek	30	24	6	.800	59:43	Loss
A. Soderblom	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VAN 3.3, CHI 2.5	VAN 6, CHI 3
Total goals	5.8	9
Shots on goal	VAN 28.0, CHI 25.7	VAN 30, CHI 34
Win chance	VAN 63%	VAN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VAN C. Garland	2.8	2	0.75	2	26%	1
CHI C. Bedard	2.8	6	0.87	0	24%	0
VAN J. Miller	2.6	2	1.18	3	34%	1
VAN B. Boeser	2.5	1	0.89	1	34%	1
CHI S. Jones	2.4	0	0.53	1	13%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	2.4	1	1.02	1	34%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.4	0	0.69	0	29%	0
VAN Q. Hughes	2.1	5	0.98	2	11%	0
CHI T. Hall	2.1	2	0.58	1	21%	1
CHI T. Teravainen	2.0	0	0.74	0	25%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	2.0	5	0.60	1	23%	1
CHI N. Foligno	1.9	2	0.50	1	19%	0
VAN N. Hoglander	1.7	3	0.48	0	23%	0
VAN K. Sherwood	1.6	3	0.40	2	16%	0
CHI R. Donato	1.6	1	0.35	1	15%	1
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.5	1	0.36	0	17%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.5	1	0.49	1	7%	0
VAN D. Heinen	1.5	3	0.47	2	20%	2
VAN P. Suter	1.4	1	0.35	1	16%	1
CHI A. Athanasiou	1.3	1	0.31	0	13%	0
CHI C. Smith	1.3	3	0.27	0	13%	0
CHI J. Dickinson	1.3	0	0.35	1	16%	0
VAN T. Blueger	1.2	4	0.37	1	11%	0
VAN T. Myers	1.1	0	0.26	0	3%	0
CHI L. Reichel	1.1	3	0.27	0	10%	0
CHI C. Murphy	1.0	3	0.17	1	7%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.0	0	0.23	1	5%	0
VAN E. Brannstrom	0.9	1	0.26	1	3%	0
VAN C. Soucy	0.9	1	0.24	0	6%	0
VAN A. Bains	0.8	0	0.19	0	12%	0
CHI P. Maroon	0.8	3	0.23	0	8%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	0.7	1	0.25	0	3%	0
VAN N. Aman	0.6	0	0.20	1	7%	0
CHI T. Brodie	0.6	1	0.26	0	3%	0
VAN V. Desharnais	0.5	2	0.14	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.