Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
VAN1
COL3
COL beat VAN 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.53 expected goals to 2.76. COL outshot VAN 31 to 21. N. MacKinnon led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). K. Sherwood had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. M. Blackwood stopped 10 of 10.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| COL | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
- 1st 2:55VANL. Karlsson0.24 xG
- 1st 19:23COLN. MacKinnon0.57 xG
- 2nd 13:52COLB. Nelson0.22 xG
- 2nd 19:26COLN. MacKinnon0.16 xG
Team Stats
VANCOL
21Shots on goal31
2.76Expected goals3.53
58Shot attempts62
165v5 shots on goal27
0/1Power play0/1
17Hits18
11Blocked shots16
2Penalty minutes0
15Giveaways16
4Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VAN 2.76 xGCOL 3.53 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VAN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Karlsson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:49 | 0:32 |
| A. Bains | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:44 | 0:00 |
| A. Räty | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:42 | 0:00 |
| E. Pettersson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:06 | 1:28 |
| B. Boeser | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:54 | 1:28 |
| J. DeBrusk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:59 | 1:29 |
| K. Sherwood | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:48 | 0:33 |
| J. Lekkerimäki | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:31 | 1:27 |
| D. Kampf | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:42 | 0:00 |
| E. Kane | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:29 | 0:31 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:16 | 0:00 |
| M. Sasson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 11:45 | 0:00 |
| Q. Hughes | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 29:33 | 2:00 |
| F. Hronek | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 25:12 | 0:32 |
| T. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:28 | 0:00 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 19:55 | 0:00 |
| T. Willander | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:49 | 0:00 |
| P. Joseph | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:42 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Lankinen | 31 | 28 | 3 | .903 | 56:36 | Loss |
| J. Patera | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. MacKinnon | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 22:15 | 1:45 |
| G. Landeskog | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:47 | 1:44 |
| B. Nelson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 17:08 | 0:15 |
| R. Colton | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 15:41 | 0:18 |
| M. Necas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:31 | 1:45 |
| A. Lehkonen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:39 | 1:42 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:54 | 0:00 |
| V. Nichushkin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:50 | 0:15 |
| P. Kelly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:04 | 0:00 |
| J. Kiviranta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:00 | 0:00 |
| V. Olofsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:16 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bardakov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:37 | 0:00 |
| D. Toews | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:39 | 0:16 |
| J. Manson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:50 | 0:00 |
| S. Malinski | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:36 | 0:00 |
| C. Makar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 24:05 | 1:51 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 19:57 | 0:09 |
| S. Girard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:11 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Wedgewood | 11 | 10 | 1 | .909 | 32:28 | |
| M. Blackwood | 10 | 10 | 0 | 1.000 | 27:32 | Win |
Lines at 5-on-5
VAN
Line 1B. Boeser15:55D. Kampf13:55K. Sherwood13:43
Line 2E. Kane12:40E. Pettersson16:20J. Lekkerimäki14:04
Line 3D. O'Connor12:52M. Sasson11:45J. DeBrusk11:10
Line 4A. Bains11:44A. Räty9:42L. Karlsson12:53
Pair 2T. Myers19:13M. Pettersson19:55
Pair 3P. Joseph9:56T. Willander13:31
COL
Line 1M. Necas19:13N. MacKinnon19:12A. Lehkonen17:39
Line 2G. Landeskog12:57R. Colton13:17B. Nelson14:14
Line 3V. Nichushkin11:57J. Drury11:17V. Olofsson9:16
Line 4P. Kelly10:44J. Kiviranta9:22Z. Bardakov8:37
Pair 2S. Girard17:11S. Malinski16:05
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VAN 2.6, COL 3.9 | VAN 1, COL 3 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | VAN 24.3, COL 33.4 | VAN 21, COL 31 |
| Win chance | COL 68% | COL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL N. MacKinnon | 3.9 | 6 | 1.50 | 2 | 39% | 2 |
| COL C. Makar | 2.8 | 2 | 1.18 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 2.5 | 1 | 0.91 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| VAN E. Kane | 2.4 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| COL M. Necas | 2.4 | 1 | 1.07 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 2.4 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| VAN Q. Hughes | 2.4 | 3 | 0.89 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| COL V. Nichushkin | 2.3 | 2 | 0.80 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| VAN B. Boeser | 2.2 | 1 | 0.65 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| COL G. Landeskog | 2.2 | 0 | 0.84 | 2 | 30% | 0 |
| COL R. Colton | 2.2 | 5 | 0.58 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| COL B. Nelson | 2.0 | 1 | 0.77 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| VAN K. Sherwood | 1.9 | 6 | 0.52 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 1.9 | 1 | 0.77 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| COL V. Olofsson | 1.9 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| COL B. Burns | 1.8 | 3 | 0.43 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| COL S. Malinski | 1.7 | 2 | 0.34 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| COL J. Drury | 1.6 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| COL P. Kelly | 1.4 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| COL D. Toews | 1.4 | 2 | 0.53 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| COL J. Manson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.31 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| VAN F. Hronek | 1.3 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VAN L. Karlsson | 1.2 | 2 | 0.25 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| VAN D. O'Connor | 1.2 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| COL S. Girard | 1.0 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN T. Myers | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VAN J. Lekkerimäki | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| COL J. Kiviranta | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VAN D. Kampf | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VAN M. Sasson | 0.9 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VAN A. Räty | 0.8 | 0 | 0.22 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| COL Z. Bardakov | 0.8 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VAN M. Pettersson | 0.7 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VAN P. Joseph | 0.6 | 1 | 0.10 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| VAN T. Willander | 0.6 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| VAN A. Bains | 0.5 | 0 | 0.07 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.