VAN beat DAL 6-5 in overtime, with the chances close: 4.56 expected goals to 3.81. M. Granlund led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). M. Marchment had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. T. Demko stopped 23 of 27.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VAN 4.56 xGDAL 3.81 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VAN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Garland | RW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:12 | 4:03 |
| P. Suter | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 21:31 | 4:40 |
| A. Räty | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:54 | 0:55 |
| J. DeBrusk | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:22 | 4:53 |
| K. Sherwood | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 12:32 | 0:00 |
| L. Karlsson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:40 | 2:18 |
| B. Boeser | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 23:13 | 6:57 |
| N. Hoglander | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:36 | 2:50 |
| D. Joshua | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:56 | 0:00 |
| T. Blueger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:39 | 0:00 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:11 | 0:00 |
| M. Sasson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:04 | 0:00 |
| Q. Hughes | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 31:28 | 6:57 |
| F. Hronek | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 2 | 23:38 | 2:08 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 22:11 | 0:00 |
| V. Mancini | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:12 | 0:44 |
| E. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:58 | 0:00 |
| D. Forbort | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:06 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Demko | 27 | 23 | 4 | .852 | 62:43 | Win |
| K. Lankinen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Granlund | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:20 | 2:59 |
| M. Duchene | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:50 | 2:57 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:20 | 2:51 |
| M. Rantanen | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 19:53 | 4:19 |
| W. Johnston | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:57 | 3:53 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:04 | 3:56 |
| M. Marchment | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 13:12 | 2:29 |
| M. Bourque | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:34 | 0:00 |
| R. Hintz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:49 | 3:48 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:12 | 0:00 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:02 | 0:00 |
| E. Dadonov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:16 | 0:00 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25:34 | 0:01 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 24:23 | 5:07 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:43 | 0:00 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 21:09 | 0:00 |
| M. Dumba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 14:47 | 1:40 |
| L. Bichsel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:24 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. DeSmith | 32 | 26 | 6 | .813 | 63:44 | OT loss |
| J. Oettinger | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VAN 2.9, DAL 3.2 | VAN 6, DAL 5 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 11 |
| Shots on goal | VAN 27.2, DAL 26.4 | VAN 32, DAL 28 |
| Win chance | DAL 56% | VAN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN Q. Hughes | 2.6 | 2 | 0.81 | 2 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL J. Robertson | 2.5 | 1 | 1.01 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| DAL M. Rantanen | 2.3 | 2 | 1.01 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.3 | 1 | 0.83 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| VAN C. Garland | 2.1 | 2 | 0.54 | 3 | 21% | 0 |
| VAN B. Boeser | 2.1 | 0 | 0.68 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 2.0 | 4 | 0.51 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| DAL T. Harley | 2.0 | 1 | 0.61 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 1.9 | 1 | 0.88 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| VAN P. Suter | 1.8 | 5 | 0.52 | 2 | 22% | 2 |
| DAL M. Marchment | 1.8 | 5 | 0.61 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| VAN K. Sherwood | 1.8 | 2 | 0.45 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.7 | 3 | 0.81 | 2 | 26% | 1 |
| DAL M. Granlund | 1.5 | 2 | 0.65 | 3 | 15% | 1 |
| VAN F. Hronek | 1.5 | 1 | 0.40 | 2 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.5 | 3 | 0.61 | 2 | 20% | 0 |
| VAN N. Hoglander | 1.4 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| VAN D. O'Connor | 1.3 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DAL E. Dadonov | 1.3 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| VAN A. Räty | 1.2 | 2 | 0.29 | 2 | 15% | 1 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.2 | 0 | 0.32 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| VAN T. Blueger | 1.1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VAN L. Karlsson | 1.1 | 2 | 0.17 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| VAN M. Sasson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.1 | 3 | 0.36 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.0 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VAN V. Mancini | 1.0 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 3% | 1 |
| VAN M. Pettersson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.0 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VAN D. Joshua | 1.0 | 3 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DAL C. Ceci | 0.9 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL L. Bichsel | 0.9 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL M. Dumba | 0.9 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 0.7 | 3 | 0.11 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VAN D. Forbort | 0.7 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.7 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.