Game Recap: VAN 5, DAL 3, October 16, 2025

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Game Recap

VAN5

FinalThu, Oct 16, 2025Every game that night

DAL3

VAN beat DAL 5-3 despite fewer good chances: 2.69 expected goals to 4.55. Q. Hughes led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). T. Demko stopped 28 of 31.

Team Stats

VANDAL

26Shots on goal31

2.69Expected goals4.55

58Shot attempts61

225v5 shots on goal22

2/3Power play2/4

26Hits21

15Blocked shots20

8Penalty minutes6

11Giveaways11

3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VAN 2.69 xGDAL 4.55 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VAN25 on goal, 4 scored

DAL31 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Garland	RW	1	1	2	3	1	0	+1	2	20:56	4:01
B. Boeser	RW	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	21:15	4:10
E. Pettersson	C	0	1	1	1	0	3	0	0	20:33	4:02
F. Chytil	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	17:42	0:15
E. Kane	LW	0	1	1	2	3	1	+3	0	17:41	0:17
M. Sasson	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	9:17	0:00
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	18:58	3:38
K. Sherwood	LW	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	14:17	0:08
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	13:22	0:00
A. Räty	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	2	8:57	0:00
L. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	7:44	0:00
A. Bains	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:23	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	1	1	2	4	1	0	+1	0	25:21	4:01
F. Hronek	D	0	2	2	0	3	1	+2	0	23:27	0:42
T. Myers	D	0	1	1	3	3	4	0	2	23:19	0:00
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	23:59	0:00
E. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	10:42	0:16
V. Mancini	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	9:43	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Demko	31	28	3	.903	60:00	Win
K. Lankinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Robertson	LW	0	2	2	5	0	0	0	0	20:53	3:50
W. Johnston	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	21:57	3:22
M. Rantanen	RW	1	0	1	2	3	1	0	0	21:54	4:50
R. Hintz	C	0	1	1	4	0	1	0	0	20:18	3:22
T. Seguin	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	17:20	2:21
M. Bourque	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	-2	0	14:05	1:33
R. Faksa	C	0	1	1	2	2	1	-1	2	11:35	0:07
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	17:44	1:22
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	11:13	0:00
A. Erne	LW	0	0	0	1	5	1	-1	0	8:49	0:06
J. Hryckowian	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	8:20	0:00
N. Bastian	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	7:49	0:00
T. Harley	D	0	1	1	2	1	2	-1	2	21:17	2:02
M. Heiskanen	D	0	0	0	3	1	3	0	2	27:29	3:29
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	-1	0	22:23	0:10
A. Petrovic	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	17:08	0:01
L. Bichsel	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	15:55	0:00
N. Lundkvist	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	11:18	0:50

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. DeSmith	26	21	5	.808	58:15	Loss
J. Oettinger	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VAN

Line 1B. Boeser15:09F. Chytil16:46J. DeBrusk13:31

Line 2C. Garland14:41E. Pettersson14:50D. O'Connor11:20

Line 3E. Kane16:30K. Sherwood12:08A. Räty8:41

Line 4L. Karlsson7:22M. Sasson8:51A. Bains7:03

Pair 1T. Myers19:42M. Pettersson18:54

Pair 2Q. Hughes21:20F. Hronek19:36

Pair 3E. Pettersson8:45V. Mancini9:41

DAL

Line 1J. Robertson15:43W. Johnston16:10T. Seguin14:27

Line 2M. Rantanen15:44R. Hintz13:54S. Steel15:35

Line 3R. Faksa9:46M. Bourque11:48C. Blackwell8:40

Line 4N. Bastian7:49J. Hryckowian8:20A. Erne8:43

Pair 1A. Petrovic16:50L. Bichsel15:28

Pair 2E. Lindell17:51M. Heiskanen19:06

Pair 3T. Harley18:28N. Lundkvist10:28

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamCasey DeSmith DAL Faces VAN, his team until May 202421 saves on 26

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VAN 3.0, DAL 3.1	VAN 5, DAL 3
Total goals	6.1	8
Shots on goal	VAN 26.8, DAL 25.9	VAN 26, DAL 31
Win chance	DAL 53%	VAN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VAN Q. Hughes	2.6	4	0.92	2	12%	1
DAL M. Rantanen	2.6	2	1.12	1	35%	1
DAL J. Robertson	2.5	5	0.98	2	33%	0
VAN E. Kane	2.4	2	0.55	1	25%	0
VAN F. Chytil	2.4	2	0.49	1	20%	1
DAL W. Johnston	2.3	2	0.81	1	32%	1
DAL R. Hintz	2.2	4	0.89	1	31%	0
VAN C. Garland	2.1	3	0.56	2	20%	1
DAL T. Seguin	2.1	2	0.66	1	24%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.0	0	0.56	0	25%	0
VAN B. Boeser	2.0	2	0.70	1	28%	1
DAL M. Heiskanen	1.9	3	0.63	0	13%	0
VAN K. Sherwood	1.8	2	0.49	0	19%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.8	2	0.59	1	16%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	1.6	1	0.69	1	23%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.6	0	0.47	2	7%	0
VAN D. O'Connor	1.4	0	0.31	0	13%	0
DAL N. Lundkvist	1.3	0	0.27	0	6%	0
VAN T. Myers	1.3	3	0.27	1	4%	0
VAN L. Karlsson	1.2	1	0.24	0	11%	0
VAN A. Räty	1.2	0	0.33	0	15%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.1	2	0.31	0	8%	0
VAN M. Sasson	1.1	3	0.25	1	11%	1
DAL M. Bourque	1.1	1	0.30	1	12%	1
DAL C. Blackwell	1.0	1	0.23	0	10%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.0	1	0.35	0	10%	0
DAL R. Faksa	1.0	2	0.31	1	11%	0
VAN M. Pettersson	0.9	2	0.29	0	3%	0
VAN V. Mancini	0.9	1	0.21	0	4%	0
DAL L. Bichsel	0.8	0	0.17	0	6%	0
DAL N. Bastian	0.8	1	0.18	0	9%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	0.7	0	0.11	0	3%	0
VAN A. Bains	0.6	0	0.17	0	8%	0
DAL A. Petrovic	0.6	0	0.09	0	4%	0
DAL J. Hryckowian	0.6	2	0.17	0	7%	0
DAL A. Erne	0.6	1	0.14	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.