Game Recap: VAN 5, DET 4 (OT), December 1, 2024

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Game Recap

VAN5

Final/OTSun, Dec 1, 2024Every game that night

DET4

VAN beat DET 5-4 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 3.16 expected goals to 3.69. J. DeBrusk scored three for VAN. L. Raymond had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. K. Lankinen stopped 27 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
VAN	0	3	1	1	5
DET	1	1	2	0	4

1st 13:57DETJ. Berggren0.43 xG
2nd 0:23VANJ. DeBruskPP0.15 xG
2nd 1:06VANJ. DeBruskPP0.20 xG
2nd 6:38DETA. DeBrincat0.10 xG
2nd 17:47VANP. Suter0.12 xG
3rd 2:24DETM. RasmussenPP0.35 xG
3rd 4:50DETV. Tarasenko0.12 xG
3rd 16:40VANE. Brannstrom0.04 xG
OT 4:00VANJ. DeBrusk0.10 xG

Team Stats

VANDET

32Shots on goal31

3.16Expected goals3.69

70Shot attempts61

215v5 shots on goal16

2/4Power play1/4

33Hits27

14Blocked shots17

6Penalty minutes8

14Giveaways16

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VAN 3.16 xGDET 3.69 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VAN32 on goal, 5 scored

DET31 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. DeBrusk	LW	3	1	4	4	1	0	+2	0	21:46	5:25
E. Pettersson	C	0	3	3	1	0	2	+1	2	21:57	5:36
B. Boeser	RW	0	1	1	3	2	0	0	0	20:39	5:43
P. Suter	C	1	0	1	4	1	0	+1	0	19:29	0:31
D. Joshua	C	0	1	1	0	5	0	+1	0	13:52	0:29
C. Garland	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	19:43	5:41
K. Sherwood	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	18:09	0:25
T. Blueger	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	14:11	0:03
D. Heinen	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	13:10	0:00
N. Hoglander	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	2	10:33	0:00
M. Sasson	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	6:19	0:00
A. Räty	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	6:14	0:09
Q. Hughes	D	0	3	3	4	2	0	0	0	31:04	5:56
E. Brannstrom	D	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	12:52	0:11
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	3	3	2	-1	0	22:48	0:26
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	2	3	0	+1	2	21:44	0:00
N. Juulsen	D	0	0	0	0	5	5	0	0	17:03	0:00
V. Desharnais	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	-2	0	13:05	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Lankinen	31	27	4	.871	64:00	Win
A. Silovs	0	0	0	–	0:00

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Larkin	C	0	2	2	5	0	0	0	0	24:44	7:06
L. Raymond	LW	0	2	2	6	1	0	0	0	23:45	7:00
M. Kasper	C	0	2	2	1	4	0	+1	0	12:11	0:16
J. Berggren	RW	1	1	2	1	1	0	+2	0	10:31	0:16
A. DeBrincat	RW	1	0	1	4	1	1	+1	2	19:33	5:59
M. Rasmussen	C	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	17:58	6:06
V. Tarasenko	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	15:01	1:23
J. Compher	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	17:11	0:13
T. Motte	C	0	0	0	2	0	3	-1	0	14:31	0:00
A. Copp	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	12:42	1:00
C. Fischer	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	11:03	0:00
J. Veleno	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	9:12	0:00
E. Gustafsson	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	2	15:51	1:52
M. Seider	D	0	0	0	5	7	2	-1	0	27:53	5:30
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	22:43	0:09
S. Edvinsson	D	0	0	0	0	4	2	-1	2	19:41	0:00
J. Petry	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	+1	0	17:55	0:00
J. Holl	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	13:09	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Talbot	14	12	2	.857	26:05
V. Husso	18	15	3	.833	37:22	OT loss

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VAN 3.3, DET 3.0	VAN 5, DET 4
Total goals	6.2	9
Shots on goal	VAN 27.7, DET 26.8	VAN 32, DET 31
Win chance	VAN 54%	VAN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VAN C. Garland	2.8	1	0.84	0	28%	0
DET D. Larkin	2.7	5	0.95	2	34%	0
DET A. DeBrincat	2.4	4	0.76	1	26%	1
VAN Q. Hughes	2.4	4	1.02	3	13%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	2.2	1	0.95	3	32%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.2	4	0.65	4	28%	3
VAN B. Boeser	2.1	3	0.75	1	29%	0
DET L. Raymond	2.0	6	0.89	2	27%	0
DET V. Tarasenko	2.0	3	0.65	1	24%	1
VAN K. Sherwood	1.9	1	0.51	0	20%	0
VAN P. Suter	1.9	4	0.47	1	21%	1
DET M. Seider	1.7	5	0.56	0	10%	0
DET M. Kasper	1.5	1	0.31	2	13%	0
VAN D. Heinen	1.3	2	0.43	0	18%	0
DET J. Berggren	1.3	1	0.34	2	16%	1
DET T. Motte	1.3	2	0.20	0	11%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.3	1	0.25	0	8%	0
VAN T. Blueger	1.2	1	0.38	0	11%	0
DET S. Edvinsson	1.1	0	0.34	0	12%	0
DET J. Compher	1.1	0	0.47	0	17%	0
DET M. Rasmussen	1.1	1	0.41	1	15%	1
VAN T. Myers	1.1	3	0.29	0	4%	0
DET J. Petry	1.1	1	0.34	0	7%	0
VAN E. Brannstrom	1.1	1	0.29	1	4%	1
DET E. Gustafsson	1.0	0	0.32	1	7%	0
DET A. Copp	1.0	0	0.39	0	14%	0
VAN C. Soucy	1.0	2	0.23	0	7%	0
VAN D. Joshua	1.0	0	0.42	1	18%	0
DET C. Fischer	1.0	0	0.26	0	10%	0
VAN N. Hoglander	1.0	1	0.26	0	14%	0
VAN A. Räty	0.9	1	0.23	0	12%	0
DET J. Veleno	0.8	1	0.23	0	10%	0
VAN N. Juulsen	0.7	0	0.13	0	3%	0
VAN V. Desharnais	0.5	2	0.14	0	2%	0
DET J. Holl	0.4	0	0.17	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.